Bootstrap confidence intervals for industrial recurrent event data

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.

Vertical distribution of benthic invertebrate larvae during an upwelling event along a transect off the tropical Brazilian continental margin

Abundance and composition of marine benthic communities have been relatively well studied in the SE Brazilian coast, but little is known on patterns controlling the distribution of their planktonic larval stages. A survey of larval abundance in the continental margin, using a Multi-Plankton Sampler, was conducted in a cross-shelf transect off Cabo Frio (23 degrees S and 42 degrees W) during a costal upwelling event. Hydrographic conditions were monitored through discrete CDT casts. Chlorophyll-a in the top 100 m of the water column was determined and changes in surface chlorophyll-a was estimated using SeaWiFS images. Based on the larval abundances and the meso-scale hydrodynamics scenario, our results suggest two different processes affecting larval distributions. High larval densities were found nearshore due to the upwelling event associated with high chlorophyll a and strong along shore current. On the continental slope, high larval abundance was associated with a clockwise rotating meander, which may have entrapped larvae from a region located further north (Cabo de Sao Tome, 22 degrees S and 41 degrees W). In mid-shelf areas, our data suggests that vertical migration may likely occur as a response to avoid offshore transport by upwelling plumes and/or cyclonic meanders. The hydrodynamic scenario observed in the study area has two distinct yet extremely important consequences: larval retention on food-rich upwelling areas and the broadening of the tropical domain to southernmost subtropical areas. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EMERGENT CONDITIONAL RELATIONS IN A GO/NO-GO PROCEDURE: FIGURE-GROUND AND STIMULUS-POSITION COMPOUND RELATIONS

Past research has demonstrated emergent conditional relations using a go/no-go procedure with pairs of figures displayed side-by-side on a computer screen. The present Study sought to extend applications Of this procedure. In Experiment, 1, we evaluated whether emergent conditional relations Could be demonstrated when two-component stimuli were displayed in figure-ground relationships-abstract figures displayed on backgrounds of different colors. Five normal)), capable adults participated. During training, each two-component stimulus Was presented successively. Responses emitted in the presence of some Stimulus pairs (A1B1, A2B2, A3B3, B1C1, B2C2 and B3C3) were reinforced, whereas responses emitted in the presence of other pairs (A1B2, A1B3, A2B1, A2B3, A3B1, A3B2, B1C2, B1C3, B2C1, B2C3, B3C1 and B3C2) were not. During tests, new configurations (AC and CA) were presented, thus emulating structurally the matching-to-sample tests employed in typical equivalence Studies. All participants showed emergent relations consistent with stimulus equivalence during testing. In Experiment 2, we systematically replicated the procedures with Stimulus compounds consisting Of four figures (A1, A2, C1 and C2) and two locations (left - B1 and right - 132). A,11 6 normally capable adults exhibited emergent stimulus-stimulus relations. Together, these experiments show that the go/no-go procedure is a potentially useful alternative for Studying emergent. conditional relations when matching-to-sample is procedurally cumbersome or impossible to use.

Influence of the use of Aliquat 336 in the immobilization procedure in sol-gel of lipase from Bacillus sp ITP-001

Aliquat 336, a liquid hydrophobic material, was used at different concentrations (0.5-3.0%, w/v) as an additive in the preparation of encapsulated lipase from Bacillus sp. ITP-001 on sol-gel silica matrices using tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) as the precursor. The resulting hydrophobic matrices and immobilized lipases were characterized with regard to specific surface area (BET method), adsorption-desorption isotherms, pore volume (Vp) and size (dp) by nitrogen adsorption (BJH method) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The catalytic activities and the corresponding coupling yields were assayed in the hydrolysis of olive oil. In comparison with pure silica matrices, the immobilization process in the presence of Aliquat 336 decreased the values for specific surface area and increased the values for pore specific volume (Vp) and mean pore diameter (dp). This behavior may be related to the partial adsorption of the enzyme on the external surface of the hydrophobic matrix as indicated by scanning electron microscopy. Aliquat 336 concentrations in the range from 0.5 to 1.5% (w/v) provided immobilized derivatives with higher coupling yields and better substrate affinity. The highest coupling yield (Y-A = 71%) was obtained for the immobilized enzyme prepared in the presence of 1.5% Aliquat which gave the following morphological properties: specific surface area = 183 m(2)/g, pore specific volume (Vp) = 0.36 cc/g and mean pore diameter (dp)= 91 angstrom. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cleft lip and palate: recommendations for dental anesthetic procedure based on anatomic evidences

Patients with cleft lip and palate usually present dental anomalies of number, shape, structure and position in the cleft area and the general dentist is frequently asked to restore or extract those teeth. Considering that several anatomic variations are expected in teeth adjacent to cleft areas and that knowledge of these variations by general dentists is required for optimal treatment, the objectives of this paper are: 1) to describe changes in the innervation pattern of anterior teeth and soft tissue caused by the presence of a cleft, 2) to describe a local anesthetic procedure in unilateral and bilateral clefts, and 3) to provide recommendations to improve anesthetic procedures in patients with cleft lip and palate. The cases of 2 patients are presented: one with complete unilateral cleft lip and palate, and the other with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate. The patients underwent local anesthesia in the cleft area in order to extract teeth with poor bone support. The modified anesthetic procedure, respecting the altered course of nerves in the cleft maxilla and soft tissue alterations at the cleft site, was accomplished successfully and the tooth extraction was performed with no pain to the patients. General dentists should be aware of the anatomic variations in nerve courses in the cleft area to offer high quality treatment to patients with cleft lip and palate.

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

Clinical and nutritional status in the late postoperative of pancreaticoduodenectomy. Influence of pylorus preservation procedure

PURPOSE: To evaluate the nutritional status of patients in the late postoperative period of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and compare the long-term outcome according to pylorus-preserving (PPPD) or the standard technique (SPD) in which the pylorus is resected. METHODS: This prospective study was conducted twelve months prior or more in patients who had underwent PD (PD Group, n=15) and health volunteers (Control Group, n=15). At a post hoc analysis, the PD Group was divided in PPPD Subgroup (n=9) and SPD Subgroup (n=6), according to the PD techniques. Gastrointestinal complaints and nutritional status were evaluated, apart from a biochemical assessment; Student t-test or Mann-Whitney test were used. RESULTS: The patients recovered their body weight and the gastrointestinal complaints were uncommon. The PD Group showed higher energy and protein intake even though BMI was lower than in Control Group. There were no differences in laboratorial data, except for higher glycemia, serum alkaline phosfatase and C-reactive protein in PD Group. There was no difference in the various parameters evaluated when the Subgroups (PPPD and SPD) were compared. CONCLUSION: For long-term pancreaticoduodenectomy, the gastrointestinal symptoms are minimal and the patients had the clinical and nutritional status preserved, regardless of pylorus preservation.

Detecting an abnormality in a recovery boiler using dynamic multivariate data analysis with parallel coordinate plots

Data visualization techniques are powerful in the handling and analysis of multivariate systems. One such technique known as parallel coordinates was used to support the diagnosis of an event, detected by a neural network-based monitoring system, in a boiler at a Brazilian Kraft pulp mill. Its attractiveness is the possibility of the visualization of several variables simultaneously. The diagnostic procedure was carried out step-by-step going through exploratory, explanatory, confirmatory, and communicative goals. This tool allowed the visualization of the boiler dynamics in an easier way, compared to commonly used univariate trend plots. In addition it facilitated analysis of other aspects, namely relationships among process variables, distinct modes of operation and discrepant data. The whole analysis revealed firstly that the period involving the detected event was associated with a transition between two distinct normal modes of operation, and secondly the presence of unusual changes in process variables at this time.

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes is introduced. The proposed model may accommodate the original single shift setting to the more realistic situation of gradual quality deterioration and allows the incorporation of an expert's opinion on the production process. Based on the number of inspections to be carried out until a defective item is found, the Bayesian operation for the distribution function that represents the increasing sequence of defective fractions during a cycle considering a mixture of Dirichlet processes as prior distribution is performed. Bayes estimates for relevant quantities are also obtained. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Charge generation, charge transport, and residual charge in the electrospinning of polymers: A review of issues and complications

Electrospinning has become a widely implemented technique for the generation of nonwoven mats that are useful in tissue engineering and filter applications. The overriding factor that has contributed to the popularity of this method is the ease with which fibers with submicron diameters can be produced. Fibers on that size scale are comparable to protein filaments that are observed in the extracellular matrix. The apparatus and procedures for conducting electrospinning experiments are ostensibly simple. While it is rarely reported in the literature on this topic, any experience with this method of fiber spinning reveals substantial ambiguities in how the process can be controlled to generate reproducible results. The simplicity of the procedure belies the complexity of the physical processes that determine the electrospinning process dynamics. In this article, three process domains and the physical domain of charge interaction are identified as important in electrospinning: (a) creation of charge carriers, (b) charge transport, (c) residual charge. The initial event that enables electrospinning is the generation of region of excess charge in the fluid that is to be electrospun. The electrostatic forces that develop on this region of charged fluid in the presence of a high potential result in the ejection of a fluid jet that solidifies into the resulting fiber. The transport of charge from the charge solution to the grounded collection device produces some of the current which is observed. That transport can occur by the fluid jet and through the atmosphere surrounding the electrospinning apparatus. Charges that are created in the fluid that are not dissipated remain in the solidified fiber as residual charges. The physics of each of these domains in the electrospinning process is summarized in terms of the current understanding, and possible sources of ambiguity in the implementation of this technique are indicated. Directions for future research to further articulate the behavior of the electrospinning process are suggested. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3682464]

Salivary Cortisol, Alpha-Amylase and Heart Rate Variation in Response to Dental Treatment in Children

Objective. Anxiety and stress are usually related to the dental treatment situation. The objective was to investigate salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase levels (salivary biomarkers) and heart rate in children undergoing a minor dental procedure (dental prophylaxis). Study design. In total, 31 children (range 84-95 months) of both genders without caries or history of dental treatment/pain/trauma were selected. Three saliva samples were gathered: one prior to dental prophylaxis, one immediately after, and one ten minutes later Weight and height were assessed, and heart rate was evaluated prior to and during the procedure. Data were analyzed by correlation tests and t-test/Wikoxon (alpha=0.05). Results. Higher cortisol and amylase levels were observed before prophylaxis compared to afterward. Cortisol and amylase levels did not show a significant correlation, nor did salivary biomarkers and body mass index. However, heart rate and amylase levels showed a significant positive correlation. Conclusions. In the studied sample, certain anticipation of the dental treatment was observed because higher cortisol and amylase levels were observed before, rather than after, the event; moreover, a significant correlation between amylase levels and heart rate was observed. Thus, salivary biomarkers may be a valuable tool for evaluating anxiety-producing events, such as dental treatment, in children.

A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Temporal memory of emotional experience

The few studies that have investigated judgments of time have suggested that the memory of duration is distorted more for emotional events than for neutral events, while in contrast there is abundant evidence that other aspects of memories of emotional events are more accurate. To reconcile this apparent discrepancy, we used a procedure in which the participants learned a standard duration over several trials under three emotional conditions: a threatening, a nonthreatening, and a neutral control condition. They were then tested either immediately or 24 h after learning. In this test phase, they had to indicate whether presented comparison durations were or were not the same as the previously learned standard duration. We found that durations were recalled better in the emotional than in the neutral condition, and that this occurred to a greater extent in the threatening than in the nonthreatening condition. Arousing emotions thus enhanced temporal memory, just as they enhance memory for other aspects of emotional events.

Geochronological constraints on the age of a Permo-Triassic impact event: U-Pb and Ar-40/Ar-39 results for the 40 km Araguainha structure of central Brazil

Impact cratering has been a fundamental geological process in Earth history with major ramifications for the biosphere. The complexity of shocked and melted rocks within impact structures presents difficulties for accurate and precise radiogenic isotope age determination, hampering the assessment of the effects of an individual event in the geological record. We demonstrate the utility of a multi-chronometer approach in our study of samples from the 40 km diameter Araguainha impact structure of central Brazil. Samples of uplifted basement granite display abundant evidence of shock deformation, but U/Pb ages of shocked zircons and the Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of feldspar from the granite largely preserve the igneous crystallization and cooling history. Mixed results are obtained from in situ Ar-40/Ar-39 spot analyses of shocked igneous biotites in the granite, with deformation along kink-bands resulting in highly localized, partial resetting in these grains. Likewise, spot analyses of perlitic glass from pseudotachylitic breccia samples reflect a combination of argon inheritance from wall rock material, the age of the glass itself, and post-impact devitrification. The timing of crater formation is better assessed using samples of impact-generated melt rock where isotopic resetting is associated with textural evidence of melting and in situ crystallization. Granular aggregates of neocrystallized zircon form a cluster of ten U-Pb ages that yield a "Concordia" age of 247.8 +/- 3.8 Ma. The possibility of Pb loss from this population suggests that this is a minimum age for the impact event. The best evidence for the age of the impact comes from the U-Th-Pb dating of neocrystallized monazite and Ar-40/Ar-39 step heating of three separate populations of post-impact, inclusion-rich quartz grains that are derived from the infill of miarolitic cavities. The Pb-206/U-238 age of 254.5 +/- 3.2 Ma (2 sigma error) and Pb-208/Th-232 age of 255.2 +/- 4.8 Ma (2 sigma error) of monazite, together with the inverse, 18 point isochron age of 254 +/- 10 Ma (MSWD = 0.52) for the inclusion-rich quartz grains yield a weighted mean age of 254.7 +/- 2.5 Ma (0.99%, 2 sigma error) for the impact event. The age of the Araguainha crater overlaps with the timing of the Permo-Triassic boundary, within error, but the calculated energy released by the Araguainha impact is insufficient to be a direct cause of the global mass extinction. However, the regional effects of the Araguainha impact event in the Parana-Karoo Basin may have been substantial. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of active holonic control systems for intelligent buildings

Building facilities have become important infrastructures for modern productive plants dedicated to services. In this context, the control systems of intelligent buildings have evolved while their reliability has evidently improved. However, the occurrence of faults is inevitable in systems conceived, constructed and operated by humans. Thus, a practical alternative approach is found to be very useful to reduce the consequences of faults. Yet, only few publications address intelligent building modeling processes that take into consideration the occurrence of faults and how to manage their consequences. In the light of the foregoing, a procedure is proposed for the modeling of intelligent building control systems, considersing their functional specifications in normal operation and in the of the event of faults. The proposed procedure adopts the concepts of discrete event systems and holons, and explores Petri nets and their extensions so as to represent the structure and operation of control systems for intelligent buildings under normal and abnormal situations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.