RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

Large Mammals in an Agroforestry Mosaic in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The forest-like characteristics of agroforestry systems create a unique opportunity to combine agricultural production with biodiversity conservation in human-modified tropical landscapes. The cacao-growing region in southern Bahia, Brazil, encompasses Atlantic forest remnants and large extensions of agroforests, locally known as cabrucas, and harbors several endemic large mammals. Based on the differences between cabrucas and forests, we hypothesized that: (1) non-native and non-arboreal mammals are more frequent, whereas exclusively arboreal and hunted mammals are less frequent in cabrucas than forests; (2) the two systems differ in mammal assemblage structure, but not in species richness; and (3) mammal assemblage structure is more variable among cabrucas than forests. We used camera-traps to sample mammals in nine pairs of cabruca-forest sites. The high conservation value of agroforests was supported by the presence of species of conservation concern in cabrucas, and similar species richness and composition between forests and cabrucas. Arboreal species were less frequently recorded, however, and a non-native and a terrestrial species adapted to open environments (Cerdocyon thous) were more frequently recorded in cabrucas. Factors that may overestimate the conservation value of cabrucas are: the high proportion of total forest cover in the study landscape, the impoverishment of large mammal fauna in forest, and uncertainty about the long-term maintenance of agroforestry systems. Our results highlight the importance of agroforests and forest remnants for providing connectivity in human-modified tropical forest landscapes, and the importance of controlling hunting and dogs to increase the value of agroforestry mosaics.