Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Comparison between multiplanar and rendering modes in the assessment of fetal atrioventricular valve areas by 3D/4D ultrasonography

Objective: To compare the agreement of multiplanar and rendering modes in the assessment fetal atrioventricular valves (mitral and tricuspid) areas by three-dimensional (3D) ultrasonography using the software spatio-temporal image correlation (STIC). Methods: We conducted a prospective cross-sectional study with normal pregnant women, with single fetuses, between 18-33 weeks. To measure the areas, we used the plan of four-chamber view. In the case of multiplanar, the plane was rotated on the axis "Z" form the heart to position at 9h. For rendering, the green line (region of interest - ROI) was placed from the atria of the heart perpendicular to the crux. The agreement was assessed by a Bland-Altman (limits of agreement) using the relative difference between the measures: ((rendering mode) - (multiplanar mode)) / (average). Results: 328 fetuses were evaluated. We have not identified the occurrence of systematic error between methods: the average relative difference was 1.62% (-2.07% to 5.32%, confidence interval 95%) in the mitral and 1.77% (- 1.08% to 4.62%) in the tricuspid valve. The limits of agreement between methods were -65.26% to 68.51% for the mitral and -49.91% to 53.45% for the tricuspid. Conclusions: There was no systematic error between modes and thus the observed values for the area of fetal atrioventricular valves can be used for comparisons needs to be corrected. However, relatively large variations may be observed when repeating the measurement area by different modes.

Error Autocorrelation and Linear Regression for Temperature-Based Evapotranspiration Estimates Improvement

Estimates of evapotranspiration on a local scale is important information for agricultural and hydrological practices. However, equations to estimate potential evapotranspiration based only on temperature data, which are simple to use, are usually less trustworthy than the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)Penman-Monteith standard method. The present work describes two correction procedures for potential evapotranspiration estimates by temperature, making the results more reliable. Initially, the standard FAO-Penman-Monteith method was evaluated with a complete climatologic data set for the period between 2002 and 2006. Then temperature-based estimates by Camargo and Jensen-Haise methods have been adjusted by error autocorrelation evaluated in biweekly and monthly periods. In a second adjustment, simple linear regression was applied. The adjusted equations have been validated with climatic data available for the Year 2001. Both proposed methodologies showed good agreement with the standard method indicating that the methodology can be used for local potential evapotranspiration estimates.

Estimate of corrected values and the effect of correction for measurement error in dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (AFFQ)

The scope of this study was to estimate calibrated values for dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (FFQA) and illustrate the effect of this approach on food consumption data. The adolescents were assessed on two occasions, with an average interval of twelve months. In 2004, 393 adolescents participated, and 289 were then reassessed in 2005. Dietary data obtained by the FFQA were calibrated using the regression coefficients estimated from the average of two 24-hour recalls (24HR) of the subsample. The calibrated values were similar to the the 24HR reference measurement in the subsample. In 2004 and 2005 a significant difference was observed between the average consumption levels of the FFQA before and after calibration for all nutrients. With the use of calibrated data the proportion of schoolchildren who had fiber intake below the recommended level increased. Therefore, it is seen that calibrated data can be used to obtain adjusted associations due to reclassification of subjects within the predetermined categories.

Correction of Severe Ptosis with a Silicone Implant Suspensor: 22 Years of Experience

Background: Patients with severe ptosis caused by poor or absent function of the levator muscle but with good frontalis muscle excursion usually benefit from a frontalis sling procedure. This is currently carried out using organic or inorganic material to connect the upper eyelid to the frontalis muscle. Methods: The aim of this study was to evaluate retrospectively 112 patients who underwent frontalis sling procedures between 1989 and 2011 using a preformed silicone implant suspensor to correct severe ptosis. Results: The results obtained using this technique were good or fair in 95.54 percent of the cases and poor in 4.46 percent of the cases. The authors discuss the results of the study and the cases in which the procedure should be indicated and highlight the advantages of the method. Conclusion: The availability of this low-cost sterile device, together with the fact that it is ready to use, requires less invasive surgery, saves time, and is sufficiently versatile to allow adjustments to be made at any time, makes the silicone eyelid sling an attractive choice for correcting ptosis. (Plast. Reconstr. Surg. 129: 453e, 2012.)

Estimation methods of non-additive effects for characteristics of weight and scrotal circumference in crossbred beef cattle

The objective of this study was to investigate, in a population of crossbred cattle, the obtainment of the non-additive genetic effects for the characteristics weight at 205 and 390 days and scrotal circumference, and to evaluate the consideration of these effects in the prediction of breeding values of sires using different estimation methodologies. In method 1, the data were pre-adjusted for the non-additive effects obtained by least squares means method in a model that considered the direct additive, maternal and non-additive fixed genetic effects, the direct and total maternal heterozygosities, and epistasis. In method 2, the non-additive effects were considered covariates in genetic model. Genetic values for adjusted and non-adjusted data were predicted considering additive direct and maternal effects, and for weight at 205 days, also the permanent environmental effect, as random effects in the model. The breeding values of the categories of sires considered for the weight characteristic at 205 days were organized in files, in order to verify alterations in the magnitude of the predictions and ranking of animals in the two methods of correction data for the non-additives effects. The non-additive effects were not similar in magnitude and direction in the two estimation methods used, nor for the characteristics evaluated. Pearson and Spearman correlations between breeding values were higher than 0.94, and the use of different methods does not imply changes in the selection of animals.

COMPARISON MEASURES OF MAPS GENERATED BY GEOSTATISTICAL METHODS

This study uses several measures derived from the error matrix for comparing two thematic maps generated with the same sample set. The reference map was generated with all the sample elements and the map set as the model was generated without the two points detected as influential by the analysis of local influence diagnostics. The data analyzed refer to the wheat productivity in an agricultural area of 13.55 ha considering a sampling grid of 50 x 50 m comprising 50 georeferenced sample elements. The comparison measures derived from the error matrix indicated that despite some similarity on the maps, they are different. The difference between the estimated production by the reference map and the actual production was of 350 kilograms. The same difference calculated with the mode map was of 50 kilograms, indicating that the study of influential points is of fundamental importance to obtain a more reliable estimative and use of measures obtained from the error matrix is a good option to make comparisons between thematic maps.

Angle class II correction with MARA appliance

Objective: To assess the effects produced by the MARA appliance in the treatment of Angle’s Class II, division 1 malocclusion. Methods: The sample consisted of 44 young patients divided into two groups: The MARA Group, with initial mean age of 11.99 years, treated with the MARA appliance for an average period of 1.11 years, and the Control Group, with initial mean age of 11.63 years, monitored for a mean period of 1.18 years with no treatment. Lateral cephalograms were used to compare the groups using cephalometric variables in the initial and final phases. For these comparisons, Student’s t test was employed. Results: MARA appliance produced the following effects: Maxillary growth restriction, no change in mandibular development, improvement in maxillomandibular relationship, increased lower anterior facial height and counterclockwise rotation of the functional occlusal plane. In the upper arch, the incisors moved lingually and retruded, while the molars moved distally and tipped distally. In the lower arch, the incisors proclined and protruded, whereas the molars mesialized and tipped mesially. Finally, there was a significant reduction in overbite and overjet, with an obvious improvement in molar relationship. Conclusions: It was concluded that the MARA appliance proved effective in correcting Angle’s Class II, division 1 malocclusion while inducing skeletal changes and particularly dental changes.

Correction of Class II malocclusion with Class II elastics: a systematic review

Introduction: The aim of this prospective clinical study was to investigate the cephalometric changes produced by bonded spurs associated with high-pull chincup therapy in children with Angle Class I malocclusion and anterior open bite. Methods: Thirty patients with an initial mean age of 8.14 years and a mean anterior open bite of 3.93 mm were treated with bonded spurs associated with chincup therapy for 12 months. An untreated control group of 30 subjects with an initial mean age of 8.36 years and a mean anterior open bite of 3.93 mm and the same malocclusion was followed for 12 months for comparison. Student t tests were used for intergroup comparisons. Results: The treated group demonstrated a significantly greater decrease of the gonial angle, and increase in overbite, palatal tipping of the maxillary incisors, and vertical dentoalveolar development of the maxillary and mandibular incisors compared with the control group. Conclusions: The association of bonded spurs with high-pull chincup therapy was efficient for the correction of the open bite in 86.7% of the patients, with a 5.23-mm (SD, 61.69) overbite increase.

Comparison measures of maps generated by geostatistical methods

This study uses several measures derived from the error matrix for comparing two thematic maps generated with the same sample set. The reference map was generated with all the sample elements and the map set as the model was generated without the two points detected as influential by the analysis of local influence diagnostics. The data analyzed refer to the wheat productivity in an agricultural area of 13.55 ha considering a sampling grid of 50 x 50 m comprising 50 georeferenced sample elements. The comparison measures derived from the error matrix indicated that despite some similarity on the maps, they are different. The difference between the estimated production by the reference map and the actual production was of 350 kilograms. The same difference calculated with the mode map was of 50 kilograms, indicating that the study of influential points is of fundamental importance to obtain a more reliable estimative and use of measures obtained from the error matrix is a good option to make comparisons between thematic maps.

Accuracy, precision and robustness of different methods to obtain samples from silages in fermentation studies

The objective of this study was to evaluate accuracy, precision and robustness of two methods to obtain silage samples, in comparison with extraction of liquor by manual screw-press. Wet brewery residue alone or combined with soybean hulls and citrus pulp were ensiled in laboratory silos. Liquor was extracted by a manual screw-press and a 2-mL aliquot was fixed with 0.4 mL formic acid. Two 10-g silage samples from each silo were diluted in 20 mL deionized water or 17% formic acid solution (alternative methods). Aliquots obtained by the three methods were used to determine the silage contents of fermentation end-products. The accuracy of the alternative methods was evaluated by comparing mean bias of estimates obtained by manual screw-press and by alternative methods, whereas precision was assessed by the root mean square prediction error and the residual error. Robustness was determined by studying the interaction between bias and chemical components, pH, in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and buffer capacity. The 17% formic acid method was more accurate for estimating acetic, butyric and lactic acids, although it resulted in low overestimates of propionic acid and underestimates of ethanol. The deionized water method overestimated acetic and propionic acids and slightly underestimated ethanol. The 17% formic acid method was more precise than deionized water for estimating all organic acids and ethanol. The robustness of each method with respect to variation in the silage chemical composition, IVDMD and pH is dependent on the fermentation end-product at evaluation. The robustness of the alternative methods seems to be critical at the determination of lactic acid and ethanol contents.

Comparison between two surgical techniques for prenatal correction of meningomyelocele in sheep

OBJECTIVE: To compare the classical neurosurgical technique with a new simplified technique for prenatal repair of a myelomeningocelelike defect in sheep. METHODS: A myelomeningocele-like defect (laminectomy and dural excision) was created in the lumbar region on day 90 of gestation in 9 pregnant sheep. Correction technique was randomized. In Group 1 the defect was corrected using the classic neurosurgical technique of three-layer suture (dura mater, muscle and skin closure) performed by a neurosurgeon. In Group 2, a fetal medicine specialist used a biosynthetic cellulose patch to protect the spinal cord and only the skin was sutured above it. Near term (day 132 of gestation) fetuses were sacrificed for pathological analysis. RESULTS: There were two miscarriages and one maternal death. In total, six cases were available for pathological analysis, three in each group. In Group 1, there were adherence of the spinal cord to the scar (meningo-neural adhesion) and spinal cord architecture loss with posterior funiculus destruction and no visualization of grey matter. In Group 2, we observed in all cases formation of a neo-dura mater, separating the nervous tissue from adjacent muscles, and preserving the posterior funiculus and grey matter. CONCLUSION: The new simplified technique was better than the classic neurosurgical technique. It preserved the nervous tissue and prevented the adherence of the spinal cord to the scar. This suggests the current technique used for the correction of spina bifida in humans may need to be reassessed.

Finite element methods for the Stokes system based on a Zienkiewicz type N-simplex

Hermite interpolation is increasingly showing to be a powerful numerical solution tool, as applied to different kinds of second order boundary value problems. In this work we present two Hermite finite element methods to solve viscous incompressible flows problems, in both two- and three-dimension space. In the two-dimensional case we use the Zienkiewicz triangle to represent the velocity field, and in the three-dimensional case an extension of this element to tetrahedra, still called a Zienkiewicz element. Taking as a model the Stokes system, the pressure is approximated with continuous functions, either piecewise linear or piecewise quadratic, according to the version of the Zienkiewicz element in use, that is, with either incomplete or complete cubics. The methods employ both the standard Galerkin or the Petrov–Galerkin formulation first proposed in Hughes et al. (1986) [18], based on the addition of a balance of force term. A priori error analyses point to optimal convergence rates for the PG approach, and for the Galerkin formulation too, at least in some particular cases. From the point of view of both accuracy and the global number of degrees of freedom, the new methods are shown to have a favorable cost-benefit ratio, as compared to velocity Lagrange finite elements of the same order, especially if the Galerkin approach is employed.