Epidemiological intelligence as a model of organization in health

The concept of epidemiological intelligence, as a construction of information societies, goes beyond monitoring a list of diseases and the ability to elicit rapid responses. The concept should consider the complexity of the definition of epidemiology in the identification of this object of study without being limited to a set of actions in a single government sector. The activities of epidemiological intelligence include risk assessment, strategies for prevention and protection, subsystems of information, crisis management rooms, geographical analysis, etc. This concept contributes to the understanding of policies in health, in multisectorial and geopolitical dimensions, as regards the organization of services around public health emergencies, primary healthcare, as well as disasters. The activities of epidemiological intelligence should not be restricted to scientific research, but the researchers must beware of threats to public health. Lalonde's model enabled consideration of epidemiological intelligence as a way to restructure policies and share resources by creating communities of intelligence, whose purpose is primarily to deal with public health emergencies and disasters.

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.

Risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection in Inland Brazil: An analysis of pooled epidemiological sectional studies

In order to assess the contribution of different parenteral routes as risk exposure to the hepatitis C virus (HCV), samples from nine surveys or cross-sectional studies conducted in two Brazilian inland regions were pooled, including a total of 3,910 subjects. Heterogeneity among the study results for different risk factors was tested and the results were shown to be homogeneous. Anti-HCV antibodies were observed in 241 individuals, of which 146 (3.7%, 95% CI?=?3.24.4) had HCV exposure confirmed by immunoblot analysis or PCR test. After adjustment for relevant variables, a correlation between confirmed HCV exposure and injection drug use, tattooing, and advance age was observed. In a second logistic model that included exposures not searched in all nine studies, a smaller sample was analyzed, revealing an independent HCV association with past history of surgery and males who have sex with other males, in addition to repeated injection drug use. Overall, these analyses corroborate the finding that injection drug use is the main risk factor for HCV exposure and spread, in addition to other parenteral routes. J. Med. Virol. 84:756762, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of Repeated Stress on Distal Airway Inflammation, Remodeling and Mechanics in an Animal Model of Chronic Airway Inflammation

Background/Aims: Epidemiological studies suggest that stress has an impact on asthmatic exacerbations. We evaluated if repeated stress, induced by forced swimming, modulates lung mechanics, distal airway inflammation and extracellular matrix remodeling in guinea pigs with chronic allergic inflammation. Methods: Guinea pigs were submitted to 7 ovalbumin or saline aerosols (1-5 mg/ml during 4 weeks; OVA and SAL groups). Twenty-four hours after the 4th inhalation, guinea pigs were submitted to the stress protocol 5 times a week during 2 weeks (SAL-S and OVA-S groups). Seventy-two hours after the 7th inhalation, guinea pigs were anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. Resistance and elastance of the respiratory system were obtained at baseline and after ovalbumin challenge. Lungs were removed, and inflammatory and extracellular matrix remodeling of distal airways was assessed by morphometry. Adrenals were removed and weighed. Results: The relative adrenal weight was greater in stressed guinea pigs compared to non-stressed animals (p < 0.001). Repeated stress increased the percent elastance of the respiratory system after antigen challenge and eosinophils and lymphocytes in the OVA-S compared to the OVA group (p < 0.001, p = 0.003 and p < 0.001). Neither collagen nor elastic fiber contents were modified by stress in sensitized animals. Conclusions: In this animal model, repeated stress amplified bronchoconstriction and inflammatory response in distal airways without interfering with extracellular matrix remodeling. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Performance of six diagnostic tests to screen for Chagas disease in blood banks and prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening based on the analysis of epidemiological variables

OBJECTIVE: The frequent occurrence of inconclusive serology in blood banks and the absence of a gold standard test for Chagas'disease led us to examine the efficacy of the blood culture test and five commercial tests (ELISA, IIF, HAI, c-ELISA, rec-ELISA) used in screening blood donors for Chagas disease, as well as to investigate the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening in respect to some epidemiological variables. METHODS: To obtain estimates of interest we considered a Bayesian latent class model with inclusion of covariates from the logit link. RESULTS: A better performance was observed with some categories of epidemiological variables. In addition, all pairs of tests (excluding the blood culture test) presented as good alternatives for both screening (sensitivity > 99.96% in parallel testing) and for confirmation (specificity > 99.93% in serial testing) of Chagas disease. The prevalence of 13.30% observed in the stratum of donors with inconclusive serology, means that probably most of these are non-reactive serology. In addition, depending on the level of specific epidemiological variables, the absence of infection can be predicted with a probability of 100% in this group from the pairs of tests using parallel testing. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological variables can lead to improved test results and thus assist in the clarification of inconclusive serology screening results. Moreover, all combinations of pairs using the five commercial tests are good alternatives to confirm results.