Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Effect of potassium silicate on epidemic components of powdery mildew on melon

The effects of silicon (Si) supplied in the form of potassium silicate (PS) were evaluated on epidemic components of powdery mildew of melon under greenhouse conditions. The PS was applied to the roots or to leaves. In the first experiment, epidemic components were evaluated after inoculation with Podosphaera xanthii. In the second experiment, the disease progress rate was evaluated on plants subjected to natural infection. The area under the disease progress curve was reduced by 65% and 73% in the foliar and root treatments, respectively, compared to control plants, as a consequence of reductions in infection efficiency, colony expansion rate, colony area, conidial production and disease progress rate. However, root application of PS was more effective than foliar application in reducing most of the epidemic components, except for infection efficiency. This can be explained by the high Si concentration in leaf tissues with root application, in contrast to the foliar treatment where Si was only deposited on the external leaf surfaces. The effects of PS reported in this study demonstrated that powdery mildew of melon can be controlled, and that the best results can be achieved when PS is supplied to the roots.

A Genetic and Pathologic Study of a DENV2 Clinical Isolate Capable of Inducing Encephalitis and Hematological Disturbances in Immunocompetent Mice

Dengue virus (DENV) is the causative agent of dengue fever (DF), a mosquito-borne illness endemic to tropical and subtropical regions. There is currently no effective drug or vaccine formulation for the prevention of DF and its more severe forms, i.e., dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). There are two generally available experimental models for the study of DENV pathogenicity as well as the evaluation of potential vaccine candidates. The first model consists of non-human primates, which do not develop symptoms but rather a transient viremia. Second, mouse-adapted virus strains or immunocompromised mouse lineages are utilized, which display some of the pathological features of the infection observed in humans but may not be relevant to the results with regard to the wild-type original virus strains or mouse lineages. In this study, we describe a genetic and pathological study of a DENV2 clinical isolate, named JHA1, which is naturally capable of infecting and killing Balb/c mice and reproduces some of the symptoms observed in DENV-infected subjects. Sequence analyses demonstrated that the JHA1 isolate belongs to the American genotype group and carries genetic markers previously associated with neurovirulence in mouse-adapted virus strains. The JHA1 strain was lethal to immunocompetent mice following intracranial (i.c.) inoculation with a LD50 of approximately 50 PFU. Mice infected with the JHA1 strain lost weight and exhibited general tissue damage and hematological disturbances, with similarity to those symptoms observed in infected humans. In addition, it was demonstrated that the JHA1 strain shares immunological determinants with the DENV2 NGC reference strain, as evaluated by cross-reactivity of anti-envelope glycoprotein (domain III) antibodies. The present results indicate that the JHA1 isolate may be a useful tool in the study of DENV pathogenicity and will help in the evaluation of anti-DENV vaccine formulations as well as potential therapeutic approaches.

Spatial distribution of arboviral mosquito vectors (Diptera, Culicidae) in Vale do Ribeira in the South-eastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Mosquitoes are vectors of arboviruses that can cause encephalitis and hemorrhagic fevers in humans. Aedes serratus (Theobald), Aedes scapularis (Rondani) and Psorophora ferox (Von Humboldt) are potential vectors of arboviruses and are abundant in Vale do Ribeira, located in the Atlantic Forest in the southeast of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of these mosquitoes and estimate the risk of human exposure to mosquito bites. Results of the analyses show that humans are highly exposed to bites in the municipalities of Cananeia, Iguape and Ilha Comprida. In these localities the incidence of Rocio encephalitis was 2% in the 1970s. Furthermore, Ae. serratus, a recently implicated vector of yellow fever virus in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, should be a target for the entomological surveillance in the southeastern Atlantic Forest. Considering the continental dimensions of Brazil and the inherent difficulties in sampling its vast area, the habitat suitability method used in the study can be an important tool for predicting the distribution of vectors of pathogens.

The white epidemic and the asepsis of refined earthenware in Belle Epoque Sao Paulo

The article examines Brazilian refined earthenwares known as faianca fina (fine faience) and relates ideas about its production to the contextual backdrop of hygienist discourses in the city of Sao Paulo in the early twentieth century. Based on an analysis of glaze components, moisture expansion processes, and technological aspects of the production of earthenware recovered from the Petybon archeological site, it is suggested that the establishment of factories and the production and consumption of white ceramics in the city of Sao Paulo were partially a consequence of the vigorous hygienization policies and modernity projects then advocated by Sao Paulo's elites.

Neospora caninum as causative agent of bovine encephalitis in Brazil

For supporting the Brazilian bovine encephalitis surveillance program this study examined the differential diagnosis of Neospora caninum in central nervous system (CNS) by histological analysis (HE staining), immunohistochemistry (IHC), and nested-PCR using a set of primers from the Nc5 region of the genomic DNA and ITS1 region of the ribosomal DNA. A sample of 302 cattle presenting neurological syndrome and negative for rabies, aged 0 to 18 years, from herds in 10 Brazilian states was evaluated for N caninum from January 2007 to April 2010. All specimens tested negative with IHC and nested-PCR using primers from the ITS I region of ribosomal DNA, while two positive cases (0.66%) were found using primers from the Nc5 region of genomic DNA: a 20 month-old male and a 72 month-old female, both from Sao Paulo State. Only the male presented severe multifocal necrotizing encephalitis associated with mononuclear cell infiltration, a pathognomonic lesion caused by parasites of the family Sarcocystidae, and only this case was associated with N caninum thus representing 0.33% positivity. Future studies should explore the association of IHC and nested-PCR with real-time PCR, a quantitative method that could be standardized for improving the detection of N. caninum in bovine CNS specimens.

Enhanced phagocytosis of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis by monocyte-macrophage cells from goats naturally infected with caprine arthritis encephalitis virus

Sanches B.G.S., Souza F.N., Azedo M.R., Batista C.F., Bertagnon H.G., Blagitz M.G. & Della Libera A.M.M.P. 2012. [Enhanced phagocytosis of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis by monocyte-macrophage cells from goats naturally infected with caprine arthritis encephalitis virus.] Fagocitose intensificada de Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis por celulas da serie monocito-macrofago de caprinos naturalmente infectados pelo virus da artrite encefalite. Pesquisa Veterinaria Brasileira 32(12):1225-1229. Departamento de Clinica Medica, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinaria e Zootecnia, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Avenida Prof. Dr. Orlando Marques de Paiva 87, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo, SP 05508-270, Brazil. E-mail: camilafb@usp.br Caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE) and caseous lymphadenitis (CL) have high incidence and transmissibility in small ruminants. Since both virus have tropism for macrophages and monocytes and affect the innate immune response, it is believed that CAE can predispose the animal to infection by Corynebacteruim pseudotuberculosis, the etiological agent of CL. To confirm this hypothesis, we evaluated phagocytosis from the monocyte-macrophage cells from 30 Saanen goats. Goats were uniformly divided in two groups according to results of agar gel immunodiffusion test for CAE virus (CAEV). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were isolated by density gradient centrifugation and the monocyte-macrophage cells were isolated from the mononuclear cells by their adhesion properties in plaques. Afterwards, phagocytosis of C. psudotuberculosis was performed for two hours at 37 degrees C, 5% of CO2, and assessed by microscopic visualization. There was no difference in the percentage of monocyte-macrophage cells that phagocytozed C. bovis between groups (P = 0.41). However, when phagocytosis rates were classified according to the number of C. pseudotuberculosis phagocyted, the percentage of monocyte-macrophage cells that internalized more than 12 bacteria were higher in serologically CAEV positive animals compared to the serologically negative ones (P < 0.001). Furthermore, a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.488; P = 0.006) between the percentage of monocyte-macrophage cells that internalized more than 12 bacteria and the percentage of monocyte that were carrying out phagocytosis was also encountered in serologically CAEV positive goats, however the same were not observed in serologically negative ones. These results demonstrated an alteration in the intensity of C. pseudotuberculosis phagocytosis by monocytes-macrophages from goats infected by CAEV. Thus, these results indicated that goats infected with CAEV may be more susceptible to CL.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

Molecular phylogeography of tick-borne encephalitis virus in central Europe

In order to obtain a better understanding of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) strain movements in central Europe the E gene sequences of 102 TBEV strains collected from 1953 to 2011 at 38 sites in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Germany were determined. Bayesian analysis suggests a 350-year history of evolution and spread in central Europe of two main lineages, A and B. In contrast to the east to west spread at the Eurasian continent level, local central European spreading patterns suggest historic west to east spread followed by more recent east to west spread. The phylogenetic and network analyses indicate TBEV ingressions from the Czech Republic and Slovakia into Germany via landscape features (Danube river system), biogenic factors (birds, red deer) and anthropogenic factors. The identification of endemic foci showing local genetic diversity is of paramount importance to the field as these will be a prerequisite for in-depth analysis of focal TBEV maintenance and long-distance TBEV spread.

Comparative study by computed radiography, histology, and scanning electron microscopy of the articular cartilage of normal goats and in chronic infection with caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus

In the northeast of Brazil, caprine arthritis-encephalitis (CAE) is one of the key reasons for herd productivity decreasing that result in considerable economic losses. A comparative study was carried out using computed radiography (CR), histological analysis (HA), and scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) of the joints of CAE infected and normal goats. Humerus head surface of positive animals presented reduced joint space, increased bone density, and signs of degenerative joint disease (DJD). The carpal joint presented no morphological alterations in CR in any of the animals studied. Tarsus joint was the most affected, characterized by severe DJD, absence of joint space, increased periarticular soft tissue density, edema, and bone sclerosis. Histological analysis showed chronic tissue lesions, complete loss of the surface zone, absence of proteoglycans in the transition and radial zones and destruction of the cartilage surface in the CAE positive animals. Analysis by SEM showed ulcerated lesions with irregular and folded patterns on the joint surface that distinguished the limits between areas of normal and affected cartilage. The morphological study of the joints of normal and CAE positive goats deepened understanding of the alteration in the tissue bioarchitecture of the most affected joints. The SEM finding sustained previous histological reports, similar to those found for rheumatoid arthritis, suggesting that the goat infected with CAE can be considered as a potential model for research in this area.

Detection of dengue virus in sera of Brazilian blood donors

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most important arboviral disease in the world. Dengue viruses (DENVs) have produced huge outbreaks in Brazil in the past 25 years with more than 5 million reported cases. During these epidemics, asymptomatic individuals infected with DENV could donate blood and serve as a source of virus dissemination in the community. Here, we studied the circulation of DENV in healthy individuals during an epidemic outbreak. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The study included 500 serum samples from healthy blood donors collected at the Hemotherapy Center of Ribeirao Preto, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. The presence of DENV RNA in the serum samples was screened by real-time reverse transcriptionpolymerase chain reaction (PCR). The virus serotype was determined by a heminested PCR procedure. A partial fragment of the NS5 gene sequence was used for phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: DENV RNA was detected in the serum sample of 2 of 500 (0.4%) individuals. Both of them were infected with DENV-3 Genotype III, a virus that has been circulating in Brazil in the past decade. CONCLUSION: Individuals with asymptomatic DENV infection can be blood donors and serve as a source of virus dissemination in the community. Further studies are needed to determine the risk of recipient infection by DENV as a result of transfusion in Brazil, especially during epidemic periods.

Vascular dementia

The epidemic growth of dementia causes great concern for the society. It is customary to consider Alzheimer's disease (AD) as the most common cause of dementia, followed by vascular dementia (VaD). This dichotomous view of a neurodegenerative disease as opposed to brain damage caused by extrinsic factors led to separate lines of research in these two entities. Indeed, accumulated data suggest that the two disorders have additive effects and probably interact; however it is still unknown to what degree. Furthermore, epidemiological studies have shown "vascular" risk factors to be associated with AD. Therefore, a clear distinction between AD and VaD cannot be made in most cases, and is furthermore unhelpful. In the absence of efficacious treatment for the neurodegenerative process, special attention must be given to the vascular component, even in patients with presumed mixed pathology. Symptomatic treatment of VaD and AD is similar, although the former is less effective. For prevention of dementia it is important to treat all factors aggressively, even in stroke survivors who do not show evidence of cognitive decline. In this review, we will give a clinical and pathological picture of the processes leading to VaD and discuss its interaction with AD. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frequency of subtype B and F1 dual infection in HIV-1 positive, Brazilian men who have sex with men

Background: Because various HIV vaccination studies are in progress, it is important to understand how often inter- and intra-subtype co/superinfection occurs in different HIV-infected high-risk groups. This knowledge would aid in the development of future prevention programs. In this cross-sectional study, we report the frequency of subtype B and F1 co-infection in a clinical group of 41 recently HIV-1 infected men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methodology: Proviral HIV-1 DNA was isolated from subject's peripheral blood polymorphonuclear leukocytes that were obtained at the time of enrollment. Each subject was known to be infected with a subtype B virus as determined in a previous study. A small fragment of the integrase gene (nucleotide 4255-4478 of HXB2) was amplified by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using subclade F1 specific primers. The PCR results were further confirmed by phylogenetic analysis. Viral load (VL) data were extrapolated from the medical records of each patient. Results: For the 41 samples from MSM who were recently infected with subtype B virus, it was possible to detect subclade F1 proviral DNA in five patients, which represents a co-infection rate of 12.2%. In subjects with dual infection, the median VL was 5.3 x 10(4) copies/ML, whereas in MSM that were infected with only subtype B virus the median VL was 3.8 x 10(4) copies/ML (p > 0.8). Conclusions: This study indicated that subtype B and F1 co-infection occurs frequently within the HIV-positive MSM population as suggested by large number of BF1 recombinant viruses reported in Brazil. This finding will help us track the epidemic and provide support for the development of immunization strategies against the HIV.

Encefalite anti-receptor N-metil-D-aspartato na infância

OBJETIVO: Discutir o diagnóstico diferencial das encefalites além daquelas de etiologia infecciosa, e alertar os pediatras para a possibilidade do diagnóstico de encefalite anti-receptor N-metil-D-aspartato (rNMDA) na população pediátrica, destacando suas principais características clínicas. DESCRIÇÃO: Três pacientes apresentaram-se com uma síndrome neuropsiquiátrica inicial seguida de encefalopatia e transtornos de movimento. As características neuropsiquiátricas iniciais se desenvolveram ao longo de dias ou semanas, com mudanças comportamentais, ansiedade, confusão mental e regressão da fala. Em seguida, os pacientes evoluíram com distúrbios de movimento, caracterizados por coreoatetose ou distonia, acometendo a região orofacial e os membros. Após a exclusão das principais causas de encefalite, foram identificados anticorpos anti-rNMDA no soro e no líquido cefalorraquidiano. Não foram detectadas neoplasias durante a investigação etiológica. Os pacientes foram submetidos a imunossupressão, e dois deles tiveram uma recuperação neurológica completa. Um deles ainda apresenta uma postura distônica leve em um dos membros. COMENTÁRIOS: Os sinais clínicos de encefalite anti-rNMDA em crianças são semelhantes aos anteriormente descritos em adultos. Tumores geralmente não são detectados nessa idade. O diagnóstico de encefalite anti-rNMDA deve ser abordado após a exclusão de outras causas de encefalite na infância, como as de origem infecciosa. Pediatras devem estar atentos a essa condição autoimune passível de tratamento.

First Identification of Culex flavivirus (Flaviviridae) in Brazil

Introduction: Culex flavivirus (CxFV) was first isolated in 2007 from Culex pipiens in Japan and then identified in several other countries. Characterization of the CxFV showed that all strains are related to the cell fusing agent virus. In this manuscript we report the first identification of CxFV in South America. Material and Methods: We have collected Culex sp. mosquitoes using BG-Sentinel traps and manual aspirators. They were pooled according to genus, species, sex and location. Viral RNA was extracted and multiplex nested PCR was performed to test the presence of Flavivirus. The positive samples were isolated in C6/36 cells and sequenced for phylogenetic analyses. Results: 265 female Culex mosquitoes pooled in 83 pools were tested with specific CxFV, Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) primers. Our sequence data indicated maximum sequence similarity of 97% with CxFV. Discussion: In this study we report the circulation of CxFV in an urban setting where SLEV had previously caused an outbreak. In terms of public health, this is an important finding due to the assumption that the previous exposition of mosquitoes to CxFV might lessen the susceptibility of these mosquitoes to other flaviviruses. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel