Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Nerve fiber layer in glaucomatous hemifield loss: a case-control study with time- and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography

Purpose: To evaluate the retinal nerve fiber layer measurements with time-domain (TD) and spectral-domain (SD) optical coherence tomography (OCT), and to test the diagnostic ability of both technologies in glaucomatous patients with asymmetric visual hemifield loss. Methods: 36 patients with primary open-angle glaucoma with visual field loss in one hemifield (affected) and absent loss in the other (non-affected), and 36 age-matched healthy controls had the study eye imaged with Stratus-OCT (Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc., Dublin, California, USA) and 3 D OCT-1000 (Topcon, Tokyo, Japan). Peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer measurements and normative classification were recorded. Total deviation values were averaged in each hemifield (hemifield mean deviation) for each subject. Visual field and retinal nerve fiber layer "asymmetry indexes" were calculated as the ratio between affected versus non-affected hemifields and corresponding hemiretinas. Results: Retinal nerve fiber layer measurements in non-affected hemifields (mean [SD] 87.0 [17.1] mu m and 84.3 [20.2] mu m, for TD and SD-OCT, respectively) were thinner than in controls (119.0 [12.2] mu m and 117.0 [17.7] mu m, P<0.001). The optical coherence tomography normative database classified 42% and 67% of hemiretinas corresponding to non-affected hemifields as abnormal in TD and SD-OCT, respectively (P=0.01). Retinal nerve fiber layer measurements were consistently thicker with TD compared to SD-OCT. Retinal nerve fiber layer thickness asymmetry index was similar in TD (0.76 [0.17]) and SD-OCT (0.79 [0.12]) and significantly greater than the visual field asymmetry index (0.36 [0.20], P<0.001). Conclusions: Normal hemifields of glaucoma patients had thinner retinal nerve fiber layer than healthy eyes, as measured by TD and SD-OCT. Retinal nerve fiber layer measurements were thicker with TD than SD-OCT. SD-OCT detected abnormal retinal nerve fiber layer thickness more often than TD-OCT.

Sleep length, working hours and socio-demographic variables are associated with time attending evening classes among working college students

It is the aim of the present study to assess factors associated with time spent in class among working college students. Eighty-two working students from 21 to 26 years old participated in this study. They were enrolled in an evening course of the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants answered a questionnaire on living and working conditions. During seven consecutive days, they wore an actigraph, filled out daily activity diaries (including time spent in classes) and the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale every three hours from waking until bedtime. Linear regression analyses were performed in order to assess the variables associated with time spent in classes. The results showed that gender, sleep length, excessive sleepiness, alcoholic beverage consumption (during workdays) and working hours were associated factors with time spent in class. Thus, those who spent less time in class were males, slept longer hours, reported excessive sleepiness on Saturdays, worked longer hours, and reported alcohol consumption. The combined effects of long work hours (>40 h/week) and reduced sleep length may affect lifestyles and academic performance. Future studies should aim to look at adverse health effects induced by reduced sleep duration, even among working students who spent more time attending evening classes.

Column generation for a multitrip vehicle routing problem with time windows, driver work hours, and heterogeneous fleet

This study addresses a vehicle routing problem with time windows, accessibility restrictions on customers, and a fleet that is heterogeneous with regard to capacity and average speed. A vehicle can performmultiple routes per day, all starting and ending at a single depot, and it is assigned to a single driverwhose totalwork hours are limited.Acolumn generation algorithmis proposed.The column generation pricing subproblem requires a specific elementary shortest path problem with resource constraints algorithm to address the possibility for each vehicle performingmultiple routes per day and to address the need to set the workday’s start time within the planning horizon. A constructive heuristic and a metaheuristic based on tabu search are also developed to find good solutions.

Multitemporal assessment of the geomorphologic evolution of the Restinga of Marambaia, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The Restinga of Marambaia is an emerged sand bar located between the Sepetiba Bay and the South Atlantic Ocean, on the south-east coast of Brazil. The objective of this study was to observe the geomorphologic evolution of the coastal zone of the Restinga of Marambaia using multitemporal satellite images acquired by multisensors from 1975 to 2004. The images were digitally segmented by a region growth algorithm and submitted to an unsupervised classification procedure (ISOSEG) followed by a raster edit based on visual interpretation. The image time-series showed a general trend of decrease in the total sand bar area with values varying from 80.61km(2) in 1975 to 78.15km(2) in 2004. The total area calculation based on the 1975 and 1978 Landsat MSS data was shown to be super-estimated in relation to the Landsat TM, Landsat ETM+, and CBERS-2 CCD data. These differences can also be associated to the relatively poorer spatial resolution of the MSS data, nominally 79m, against the 20m of the CCD data and 30m of the TM and ETM+ data. For the estimates of the width in the central portion of the sand bar the variation was from 158m (1975) to 100m (2004). The formation of a spit in the northern region of the study area was visually observed. The area of the spit was estimated, with values varying from 0.82km(2) (1975) to 0.55km(2) (2004).

Occurrence and behavior of butyltins in intertidal and shallow subtidal surface sediments of an estuarine beach under different sampling conditions

Contamination by butyltin compounds (BTs) has been reported in estuarine environments worldwide, with serious impacts on the biota of these areas. Considering that BTs can be degraded by varying environmental conditions such as incident light and salinity, the short-term variations in such factors may lead to inaccurate estimates of BTs concentrations in nature. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the possibility that measurements of BTs in estuarine sediments are influenced by different sampling conditions, including period of the day (day or night), tidal zone (intertidal or subtidal), and tides (high or low). The study area is located on the Brazilian southeastern coast, Sao Vicente Estuary, at Pescadores Beach, where BT contamination was previously detected. Three replicate samples of surface sediment were collected randomly in each combination of period of the day, tidal zone, and tide condition, from three subareas along the beach, totaling 72 samples. BTs were analyzed by GC-PFPD using a tin filter and a VF-5 column, by means of a validated method. The concentrations of tributyltin (TBT), dibutyltin (DBT), and monobutyltin (MBT) ranged from undetectable to 161 ng Sn g(-1) (d.w.). In most samples (71%), only MBT was quantifiable, whereas TBTs were measured in only 14, suggesting either an old contamination or rapid degradation processes. DBT was found in 27 samples, but could be quantified in only one. MBT concentrations did not differ significantly with time of day, zones, or tide conditions. DBT and TBT could not be compared under all these environmental conditions, because only a few samples were above the quantification limit. Pooled samples of TBT did not reveal any difference between day and night. These results indicated that, in assessing contamination by butyltin compounds, surface-sediment samples can be collected in any environmental conditions. However, the wide variation of BTs concentrations in the study area, i.e., over a very small geographic scale, illustrates the need for representative hierarchical and composite sampling designs that are compatible with the multiscalar temporal and spatial variability common to most marine systems. The use of such sampling designs will be necessary for future attempts to quantitatively evaluate and monitor the occurrence and impact of these compounds in nature

Closed-loop stable model predictive control of integrating systems with dead time

Model predictive control (MPC) applications in the process industry usually deal with process systems that show time delays (dead times) between the system inputs and outputs. Also, in many industrial applications of MPC, integrating outputs resulting from liquid level control or recycle streams need to be considered as controlled outputs. Conventional MPC packages can be applied to time-delay systems but stability of the closed loop system will depend on the tuning parameters of the controller and cannot be guaranteed even in the nominal case. In this work, a state space model based on the analytical step response model is extended to the case of integrating time systems with time delays. This model is applied to the development of two versions of a nominally stable MPC, which is designed to the practical scenario in which one has targets for some of the inputs and/or outputs that may be unreachable and zone control (or interval tracking) for the remaining outputs. The controller is tested through simulation of a multivariable industrial reactor system. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HYDRODYNAMICS AND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN THE CAMBORIU ESTUARY - BRAZIL: PRE JETTY CONDITIONS

Estuarine hydrodynamics is a key factor in the definition of the filtering capacity of an estuary and results from the interaction of the processes that control the inlet morphodynamics and those that are acting in the mixing of the water in the estuary. The hydrodynamics and suspended sediment transport in the Cambori estuary were assessed by two field campaigns conducted in 1998 that covered both neap and spring tide conditions. The period measured represents the estuarine hydrodynamics and sediment transport prior to the construction of the jetty in 2003 and provides important background information for the Cambori estuary. Each field campaign covered two complete tidal cycles with hourly measurements of currents, salinity, suspended sediment concentration and water level. Results show that the Cambori estuary is partially mixed with the vertical structure varying as a function of the tidal range and tidal phase. The dynamic estuarine structure can be balanced between the stabilizing effects generated by the vertical density gradient, which produces buoyancy and stratification flows, and the turbulent effects generated by the vertical velocity gradient that generates vertical mixing. The main sediment source for the water column are the bottom sediments, periodically resuspended by the tidal currents. The advective salt and suspended sediment transport was different between neap and spring tides, being more complex at spring tide. The river discharge term was important under both tidal conditions. The tidal correlation term was also important, being dominant in the suspended sediment transport during the spring tide. The gravitational circulation and Stokes drift played a secondary role in the estuarine transport processes.

Influence of salinity on the interannual heat storage trends in the Atlantic estimated from altimeters and Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic data

Changes in the oceanic heat storage (HS) can reveal important evidences of climate variability related to ocean heat fluxes. Specifically, long-term variations in HS are a powerful indicator of climate change as HS represents the balance between the net surface energy flux and the poleward heat transported by the ocean currents. HS is estimated from sea surface height anomaly measured from the altimeters TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason 1 from 1993 to 2006. To characterize and validate the altimeter-based HS in the Atlantic, we used the data from the Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) array. Correlations and rms differences are used as statistical figures of merit to compare the HS estimates. The correlations range from 0.50 to 0.87 in the buoys located at the equator and at the southern part of the array. In that region the rms differences range between 0.40 and 0.51 x 10(9) Jm(-2). These results are encouraging and indicate that the altimeter has the precision necessary to capture the interannual trends in HS in the Atlantic. Albeit relatively small, salinity changes can also have an effect on the sea surface height anomaly. To account for this effect, NCEP/GODAS reanalysis data are used to estimate the haline contraction. To understand which dynamical processes are involved in the HS variability, the total signal is decomposed into nonpropagating basin-scale and seasonal (HS(l)) planetary waves, mesoscale eddies, and small-scale residual components. In general, HS(l) is the dominant signal in the tropical region. Results show a warming trend of HS(l) in the past 13 years almost all over the Atlantic basin with the most prominent slopes found at high latitudes. Positive interannual trends are found in the halosteric component at high latitudes of the South Atlantic and near the Labrador Sea. This could be an indication that the salinity anomaly increased in the upper layers during this period. The dynamics of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre could also be subject to low-frequency changes caused by a trend in the halosteric component on each side of the South Atlantic Current.

Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall?

In this study we examine the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on South American circulation using observations and a suite of numerical experiments forced by a combination of Indian and Pacific SST anomalies. Previous studies have shown that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode can affect climate over remote regions across the globe, including over South America. Here we show that such a link exists not only with the IOD, but also with the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (IOBW). The IOBW, a response to El Nino events, tends to reinforce the South American anomalous circulation in March-to-May associated with the warm events in the Pacific. This leads to increased rainfall in the La Plata basin and decreased rainfall over the northern regions of the continent. In addition, the IOBW is suggested to be an important factor for modulating the persistence of dry conditions over northeastern South America during austral autumn. The link between the IOBW and South American climate occurs via alterations of the Walker circulation pattern and through a mid-latitude wave-train teleconnection.

Linear parameter varying control design for rotating systems supported by journal bearings

Linear parameter varying (LPV) control is a model-based control technique that takes into account time-varying parameters of the plant. In the case of rotating systems supported by lubricated bearings, the dynamic characteristics of the bearings change in time as a function of the rotating speed. Hence, LPV control can tackle the problem of run-up and run-down operational conditions when dynamic characteristics of the rotating system change significantly in time due to the bearings and high vibration levels occur. In this work, the LPV control design for a flexible shaft supported by plain journal bearings is presented. The model used in the LPV control design is updated from unbalance response experimental results and dynamic coefficients for the entire range of rotating speeds are obtained by numerical optimization. Experimental implementation of the designed LPV control resulted in strong reduction of vibration amplitudes when crossing the critical speed, without affecting system behavior in sub- or supercritical speeds. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Periodontal Manifestations and Ambulatorial Management in a Patient With Sturge Weber Syndrome

Sturge-Weber syndrome is a nonhereditary congenital condition characterized by leptomeningeal and facial skin angiomatous malformation following the trigeminal nerve path. The intraoral angiomatosis are presented in 40% of cases and results in an important periodontal alteration, increasing the risk of bleeding during dental procedures. A 43-year-old male patient presented with port wine stain on the right side of the face, the entire hard and soft palates, the alveolar ridge, and buccal mucosa, and had an excessive accumulation of calcified masses in both supragingival and subgingival sites, with swelling and generalized inflammation throughout the gingiva and alveolar mucosa. He reported not having sanitized the area for years for fear of bleeding. Periodontal management, to remove calculus and to control gingivitis initiated in the supragingival region and gradually reaching the subgingival region to control oral microbiota, was performed with mild bleeding. The redness of the staining greatly diminished with time and the extreme halitosis of the patient also improved sharply leading to a dramatic improvement in quality of life. Ambulatory care is a feasible alternative for periodontal management that within safety limits for bleeding risks reduces the operational cost.

TDEM survey in urban environmental for hydrogeological study at USP campus in Sao Paulo city, Brazil

In this work, some TDEM (Time Domain Electromagnetic) results at USP (University of Sao Paulo) campus in Sao Paulo city, Brazil, are presented. The data were acquired focusing on two mains objectives: (i) to map geoelectrical stratigraphy of Sao Paulo sedimentary basin, emphasizing on hydrogeological studies about sedimentary and crystalline aquifers, and (ii) to analyze the viability of TDEM data acquisition use in urban environment. The study area is located in Sao Paulo basin border, characterized by Resende and Sao Paulo formations, which are constituted by sand-clays sediments over a granite-gneissic basement. Two equipments were used in order to acquire database: Protem47 (low power), and Protem57-MK2 (high power). Capacitive noise affect obtained data with Protem47 due to the presence of metal pipes buried at IAG/USP (Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics, and Atmospheric Science) test site at USP. On the other hand, capacitive noise did not affect acquired data with Protem57-MK2, and the data present high signal to noise ratio. Surveys helped in determining sedimentary and crystalline aquifers, characterized by a fracture zone with water inside basin basement (conductive zone). Results show good agreement with local geology obtained from lithological boreholes located in the study areas. Moreover, it shows that TDEM method can be used in urban environments with a countless potential in hydrogeological studies, offering great reliability. Studies showed that main TDEM-method limitation at USP was the lack of space for opening the transmitter loop. Results are very promising and open new perspectives for TDEM-method use in urban environments as this area remains unexplored. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NEW FOSSIL RECORDS OF PLEISTOCENE MARINE MOLLUSKS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Fossils of the gastropods Diodora patagonica, Zidona dufresnei, Olivancillaria carcellesi, Lamniconus lemniscatus carcellesi and the bivalve Arcinella brasiliana are registered for the first time from the outcrops of Chui Creek, on the coastal plain of Rio Grande do Sul State, southernmost Brazil, together with other taxa previously known elsewhere. The specimens were collected in a shallow Pleistocene marine facies exposed at the base of the banks of the creek, in a fossil concentration possibly formed by storm events. The taxa described here live in shallow environments (with the exception of A. brasiliana and Z. dufresnei) with sandy bottoms (except for D. patagonica, T patagonica, B. odites, C. rhizophorae and A. brasiliana). The presence of L. lemniscatus carcellesi, found living today only in Uruguay and Argentina, indicates a wider distribution for this taxon during the late Pleistocene.

Analysis of NDVI time series using cross-correlation and forecasting methods for monitoring sugarcane fields in Brazil

Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.