Evaluation of physiologic complexity in time series using generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis

Complexity in time series is an intriguing feature of living dynamical systems, with potential use for identification of system state. Although various methods have been proposed for measuring physiologic complexity, uncorrelated time series are often assigned high values of complexity, errouneously classifying them as a complex physiological signals. Here, we propose and discuss a method for complex system analysis based on generalized statistical formalism and surrogate time series. Sample entropy (SampEn) was rewritten inspired in Tsallis generalized entropy, as function of q parameter (qSampEn). qSDiff curves were calculated, which consist of differences between original and surrogate series qSampEn. We evaluated qSDiff for 125 real heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics, divided into groups of 70 healthy, 44 congestive heart failure (CHF), and 11 atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects, and for simulated series of stochastic and chaotic process. The evaluations showed that, for nonperiodic signals, qSDiff curves have a maximum point (qSDiff(max)) for q not equal 1. Values of q where the maximum point occurs and where qSDiff is zero were also evaluated. Only qSDiff(max) values were capable of distinguish HRV groups (p-values 5.10 x 10(-3); 1.11 x 10(-7), and 5.50 x 10(-7) for healthy vs. CHF, healthy vs. AF, and CHF vs. AF, respectively), consistently with the concept of physiologic complexity, and suggests a potential use for chaotic system analysis. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758815]

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Family Health Support Centers: challenges and opportunities from the perspective of primary care professionals in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Family Health Support Centers (NASF) were created in Brazil to increase the case-resolution capacity of primary healthcare. Prior to their implementation in the West Side of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, a series of workshops were held for primary healthcare professionals to prepare a proposal for such centers. Hermeneutic analysis was used to study the transcribed material. The thematic categories were: role, constitution, and functioning of the NASF, relationship with family health teams, and interdisciplinarity. The participants' expected the NASF to be an empowering device for comprehensiveness of care, intervening in an existing culture of unnecessary referrals while fostering linkage with other levels of care. The participants also expected the NASF to contribute to the discussion on health professionals' training and stimulating reflection with policy-makers on health indicators based exclusively on the number of consultations. These indicators fail to reflect the impact on the services' activities and the quality of care offered to the population in the coverage area.

The Gracilariaceae Germplasm Bank of the University of So Paulo, Brazil-a DNA barcoding approach

The University of So Paulo Gracilariaceae Germplasm Bank has 50 strains collected mostly in Brazil, but also elsewhere in the world. This bank has been used as a source of material for research developed locally and abroad. With over 200 species, some of which have high economic value, the family Gracilariaceae has been extensively studied. Nonetheless, taxonomic problems still persist by the existence of cryptic species, phenotypic plasticity, and broad geographic distribution. In the case of algae kept in culture for long periods of time, the identification is even more problematic as a consequence of considerable morphological modification. Thus, the use of molecular markers has been shown to be an efficient tool to elucidate taxonomic issues in the group. In this work, we sequenced the 5'-end of the cox1 gene for 41 strains and the universal plastid amplicon (UPA) plastid region for 45 strains, covering all 50 strains in the bank. In addition, the rbcL for representatives of the cox1/UPA clusters was sequenced for 14 strains. The original species identification based on morphology was compared with the molecular data obtained in this work, resulting in the identification of 13 different species. Our analyses indicate that cox1 and UPA are suitable markers for the delineation of species of Gracilariales in the germplasm bank. The addition of DNA barcode tags to the samples in the Gracilariaceae germplasm bank and the molecular identification of the species will make this bank even more useful for future research as the species can be easily traced and confirmed.

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323-350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days(-1) for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of atmospheric aerosols in the city of So Paulo, Brazil: comparisons between polluted and unpolluted periods

The objective of this study was to determine the size and composition of atmospheric aerosols in the downtown area of the city of So Paulo, Brazil, for a polluted and an unpolluted period. Aerosols were sampled with a portable air sampler (PAS), Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor (MOUDI), and Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer. At the study site, air quality is poor, especially during the winter, high concentrations of pollutants being emitted primarily by the light- and heavy-duty vehicle fleet. We analyzed mass, black carbon (BC), Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Br, Rb, Sn, Zr, and Pb. During the polluted period, diurnal PM(10) was higher than nocturnal PM(10), whereas the inverse was true during the unpolluted period. The FPM was rich in BC, S, and Pb, whereas CPM was rich in Al, Si, Ca, Ti, and Fe. Mass balance was performed by category: ammonium sulfate, sodium chloride, crustal material, BC, and other. The PAS-determined FPM was mainly BC. The MOUDI-determined FPM crustal material explained more mass than did ammonium sulfate and BC during the polluted period, whereas ammonium sulfate had the largest mass during the unpolluted period. Crustal material was the major CPM component, followed by ammonium sulfate and BC. During the unpolluted period, FPM concentrations were lower, whereas those of ammonium sulfate were relatively higher, especially at night, and particle number was inversely proportional to particle size. Aerosol growth was more intense during the polluted period.

Radiation balance at the surface in the city of So Paulo, Brazil: diurnal and seasonal variations

The main goal of this work is to describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of the radiation balance components at the surface in the city of So Paulo based on observations carried out during 2004. Monthly average hourly values indicate that the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles of net radiation (Q*), downwelling and upwelling shortwave radiation (SW(DW), SW(UP)), and longwave radiations (LW(DW), LW(UP)) in February were, respectively, 37%, 14%, 19%, 11%, and 5% larger than they were in August. The monthly average daily values indicate a variation of 60% for Q*, with a minimum in June and a maximum in December; 45% for SW(DW), with a minimum in May and a maximum in September; 50% for SW(UP), with a minimum in June and a maximum in September; 13% for LW(DW), with a minimum in July and a maximum in January; and 9% for LW(UP), with a minimum in July and a maximum in February. It was verified that the atmospheric broadband transmissivity varied from 0.36 to 0.57; the effective albedo of the surface varied from 0.08 to 0.10; and the atmospheric effective emissivity varied from 0.79 to 0.92. The surface effective emissivity remained approximately constant and equal to 0.96. The albedo and surface effective emissivity for So Paulo agreed with those reported for urban areas in Europe and North America cities. This indicates that material and geometric effects on albedo and surface emissivity in So Paulo are similar to ones observed in typical middle latitudes cities. On the other hand, it was found that So Paulo city induces an urban heat island with daytime maximum intensity varying from 2.6A degrees C in July (16:00 LT) to 5.5A degrees C in September (15:00 LT). The analysis of the radiometric properties carried out here indicate that this daytime maximum is a primary response to the seasonal variation of daily values of net solar radiation at the surface.

A NEO-KALECKIAN MODEL OF PROFIT SHARING, CAPACITY UTILIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper sets forth a Neo-Kaleckian model of capacity utilization and growth with distribution featuring a profit-sharing arrangement. While a given proportion of firms compensate workers with only a base wage, the remaining proportion do so with a base wage and a share of profits. Consistent with the empirical evidence, workers hired by profit-sharing firms have a higher productivity than their counterparts in base-wage firms. While a higher profit-sharing coefficient raises capacity utilization and growth irrespective of the distribution of compensation strategies across firms, a higher frequency of profit-sharing firms does likewise only if the profit-sharing coefficient is sufficiently high.

Growth kinetics of CdS in germanium oxide glassy matrix

In the present work we revisit the size data of CdS microcrystals previously collected in the glassy matrix of Germanium oxide. The CdS clusters analyzed using electron microscopy images have shown a wurtzite structure. The mean average radius, dispersion and volume evaluated from the histograms showed good agreement for t(1/3), t(2/3) and t laws, respectively. We observed that the amount of microcrystals remains constant throughout the heat treatment process, as well as that the radii distribution has a lower limit and increases with heat treatment. The distribution of radii follows a distribution similar to the Lifshitz-Slyozov-Wagner distribution limited in the origin. Discussions led to the conclusion that the growth of CdS is a process that occurs after the fluctuating nucleation and coalescence phases. We then analyze the growth process, assuming that the evaporation is overcome by the precipitation rate, stabilizing all clusters with respect to dissolution back into the matrix. The problem was simplified neglecting anisotropy and the assuming a spherical shape for clusters and particles. The low interface tension was described in terms of an empirical potential barrier in the surface of the cluster. The growth dynamics developed considering that the number of clusters remains constant, and that the minimum size of these clusters grow with time, as the first order approximation showed a good agreement with the flaw. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of NDVI time series using cross-correlation and forecasting methods for monitoring sugarcane fields in Brazil

Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

Constraint-based analysis of gene interactions using restricted boolean networks and time-series data

Abstract Background A popular model for gene regulatory networks is the Boolean network model. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to perform an analysis of gene regulatory interactions using the Boolean network model and time-series data. Actually, the Boolean network is restricted in the sense that only a subset of all possible Boolean functions are considered. We explore some mathematical properties of the restricted Boolean networks in order to avoid the full search approach. The problem is modeled as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) and CSP techniques are used to solve it. Results We applied the proposed algorithm in two data sets. First, we used an artificial dataset obtained from a model for the budding yeast cell cycle. The second data set is derived from experiments performed using HeLa cells. The results show that some interactions can be fully or, at least, partially determined under the Boolean model considered. Conclusions The algorithm proposed can be used as a first step for detection of gene/protein interactions. It is able to infer gene relationships from time-series data of gene expression, and this inference process can be aided by a priori knowledge available.

Recruitment and growth variation of Ophionereis reticulata (Echinodermata: Ophiuroidea)

Two growth patterns are recognized in shallow-water ophiuroids: (I) slow growth and early reproductive maturity over a long life span and (2) rapid growth with a short life span. For species with the first pattern, both growth and recruitment would reflect a reproductive pattern with long periods of resting and spawning concentrated in certain months of the year. To evaluate this hypothesis, the recruitment, population dynamics, and growth of the intertidal brittle star Ophionereis reticulata were analyzed from January 2001 to December 2002 at the Baleciro Isthmus on the southeast coast of Brazil. The species shows an annual gametogenic cycle with spawning taking place in summer. Densities varied from 0.46 to 9.46 individuals m(-2). Density variations and seawater temperature were not significantly correlated. The population structure of O. reticulata was polymodal, with at least four co-occurring cohorts. Recruitment events were recorded in March 2001, October 2001, January 2002, and September 2002. As indicated by the asymptote size (D(infinity)=11.47 mm +/- 1.46), growth constant (K=0.42 year(-1)+/- 0.12), and oscillation index (C=0.97 +/- 0.51), the growth pattern of O. reticulata seems to be based on high survivorship of juveniles and adults, where sexual maturity is reached at a small size with rapid growth in the first 2 years of life. A low level of settlement is to be expected based on these data; however, there must be a minimum successful survivorship and development for juveniles and adults. Another explanation for the lack of small individuals (disc diameter <1.0 mm) could be that recruitment is located in a different area and a post-settlement migration might be involved in the maintenance of the population.

The burden of dengue: Jundiai, Brazil - January 2010

Objective: To study the antibody prevalence against dengue in the municipality of Jundiai, Sao Paulo, Brazil, due to the low number of official confirmed autochthonous cases. Methods: A serological study on dengue infection was conducted during January 2010 and previous reports on dengue and entomological surveillance during that period were reviewed. Results: A prevalence of 7.8% IgG positive (68:876) was found. Furthermore, based on the detection of IgM antibodies in five samples, it was observed that the incidence of dengue in the city at the time of the survey contrasts with the absence of notifications by local health authorities over the same period of time. Conclusion: These results highlight the discrepancies between the actual and the detected number of dengue infections, possibly due to significant numbers of asymptomatic infections aggravated by difficulties with dengue clinical diagnosis.

Detection of porcine circovirus genotypes 2a and 2b in aborted foetuses from infected swine herds in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) has been associated with several disease complexes, including reproductive failure. The aim of this study was to identify the subtypes of PCV2 that are associated with reproductive failure in pigs from the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil and to investigate co-infections with other infectious organisms. Findings: Samples of 168 aborted foetuses or mummified foetuses from five farrow-to-finish swine farms known to be infected with PCV2 and located in the State of Sao Paulo were tested for PCV2 by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Positive samples were additionally tested for porcine parvovirus (PPV), Leptospira spp. and Brucella spp. by PCR. PCV2 was detected in 18 of the samples (10.7%). PPV, Brucella spp. and Leptospira spp were found in 2, 10 and 0 cases, respectively. Eleven PCV2 strains were sequenced and determined to be either genotype 2a (n = 1) or 2b (n = 10). Conclusions: The findings indicate that the frequency of PCV2 infections in aborted porcine foetuses from the State of Sao Paulo is rather low (10.7%) and that co-infection with other pathogens is common and may be involved in PCV2 associated reproductive failure. No repeatable, characteristic amino acid motifs for regions of the PCV2 capsid protein seemed to be associated with abortion in sows.

A retrospective serologic survey of hantavirus infections in the county of Cassia dos Coqueiros, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Introduction: In recent years, hantavirus infections producing severe diseases have obtained an increased attention from public health authorities from the countries of Eurasia to the Americas. Brazil has reported 1,300 cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) from 1993 to 2010, with about 80 of them occurring in the northeast of the state of Sao Paulo, with 48% fatality rate. Araraquara virus was the causative agent of HCPS in the region. Considering that hantaviruses causing human disease in the Americas were unknown until 1993, we have looked for hantavirus infections in the population of Cassia dos Coqueiros county, northeast of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, before this time. This county has about 2,800 inhabitants and an economy based on agriculture, including cultivation of Brachiaria decumbens grass. The grass seeds are an important rodent attraction, facilitating transmission of hantavirus to man. Four HCPS cases were reported so far in the county. Methods: In this study, 1,876 sera collected from 1987 to 1990 were tested for IgG to hantavirus by IgG-ELISA, using the N recombinant protein of Araraquara virus as antigen. Results: Positive results were observed in 89 (4.7%) samples, which were all collected in 1987. The positivity among urban inhabitants was 5.3%, compared with 4.3% among those living in rural areas. Conclusions: Our results showed that hantavirus infections occurred in Cassia dos Coqueiros, completely unrecognized, even before hantaviruses were described in the Americas.