Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Effect of potassium silicate on epidemic components of powdery mildew on melon

The effects of silicon (Si) supplied in the form of potassium silicate (PS) were evaluated on epidemic components of powdery mildew of melon under greenhouse conditions. The PS was applied to the roots or to leaves. In the first experiment, epidemic components were evaluated after inoculation with Podosphaera xanthii. In the second experiment, the disease progress rate was evaluated on plants subjected to natural infection. The area under the disease progress curve was reduced by 65% and 73% in the foliar and root treatments, respectively, compared to control plants, as a consequence of reductions in infection efficiency, colony expansion rate, colony area, conidial production and disease progress rate. However, root application of PS was more effective than foliar application in reducing most of the epidemic components, except for infection efficiency. This can be explained by the high Si concentration in leaf tissues with root application, in contrast to the foliar treatment where Si was only deposited on the external leaf surfaces. The effects of PS reported in this study demonstrated that powdery mildew of melon can be controlled, and that the best results can be achieved when PS is supplied to the roots.

The white epidemic and the asepsis of refined earthenware in Belle Epoque Sao Paulo

The article examines Brazilian refined earthenwares known as faianca fina (fine faience) and relates ideas about its production to the contextual backdrop of hygienist discourses in the city of Sao Paulo in the early twentieth century. Based on an analysis of glaze components, moisture expansion processes, and technological aspects of the production of earthenware recovered from the Petybon archeological site, it is suggested that the establishment of factories and the production and consumption of white ceramics in the city of Sao Paulo were partially a consequence of the vigorous hygienization policies and modernity projects then advocated by Sao Paulo's elites.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

Detection of dengue virus in sera of Brazilian blood donors

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most important arboviral disease in the world. Dengue viruses (DENVs) have produced huge outbreaks in Brazil in the past 25 years with more than 5 million reported cases. During these epidemics, asymptomatic individuals infected with DENV could donate blood and serve as a source of virus dissemination in the community. Here, we studied the circulation of DENV in healthy individuals during an epidemic outbreak. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The study included 500 serum samples from healthy blood donors collected at the Hemotherapy Center of Ribeirao Preto, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. The presence of DENV RNA in the serum samples was screened by real-time reverse transcriptionpolymerase chain reaction (PCR). The virus serotype was determined by a heminested PCR procedure. A partial fragment of the NS5 gene sequence was used for phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: DENV RNA was detected in the serum sample of 2 of 500 (0.4%) individuals. Both of them were infected with DENV-3 Genotype III, a virus that has been circulating in Brazil in the past decade. CONCLUSION: Individuals with asymptomatic DENV infection can be blood donors and serve as a source of virus dissemination in the community. Further studies are needed to determine the risk of recipient infection by DENV as a result of transfusion in Brazil, especially during epidemic periods.

Vascular dementia

The epidemic growth of dementia causes great concern for the society. It is customary to consider Alzheimer's disease (AD) as the most common cause of dementia, followed by vascular dementia (VaD). This dichotomous view of a neurodegenerative disease as opposed to brain damage caused by extrinsic factors led to separate lines of research in these two entities. Indeed, accumulated data suggest that the two disorders have additive effects and probably interact; however it is still unknown to what degree. Furthermore, epidemiological studies have shown "vascular" risk factors to be associated with AD. Therefore, a clear distinction between AD and VaD cannot be made in most cases, and is furthermore unhelpful. In the absence of efficacious treatment for the neurodegenerative process, special attention must be given to the vascular component, even in patients with presumed mixed pathology. Symptomatic treatment of VaD and AD is similar, although the former is less effective. For prevention of dementia it is important to treat all factors aggressively, even in stroke survivors who do not show evidence of cognitive decline. In this review, we will give a clinical and pathological picture of the processes leading to VaD and discuss its interaction with AD. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frequency of subtype B and F1 dual infection in HIV-1 positive, Brazilian men who have sex with men

Background: Because various HIV vaccination studies are in progress, it is important to understand how often inter- and intra-subtype co/superinfection occurs in different HIV-infected high-risk groups. This knowledge would aid in the development of future prevention programs. In this cross-sectional study, we report the frequency of subtype B and F1 co-infection in a clinical group of 41 recently HIV-1 infected men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methodology: Proviral HIV-1 DNA was isolated from subject's peripheral blood polymorphonuclear leukocytes that were obtained at the time of enrollment. Each subject was known to be infected with a subtype B virus as determined in a previous study. A small fragment of the integrase gene (nucleotide 4255-4478 of HXB2) was amplified by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using subclade F1 specific primers. The PCR results were further confirmed by phylogenetic analysis. Viral load (VL) data were extrapolated from the medical records of each patient. Results: For the 41 samples from MSM who were recently infected with subtype B virus, it was possible to detect subclade F1 proviral DNA in five patients, which represents a co-infection rate of 12.2%. In subjects with dual infection, the median VL was 5.3 x 10(4) copies/ML, whereas in MSM that were infected with only subtype B virus the median VL was 3.8 x 10(4) copies/ML (p > 0.8). Conclusions: This study indicated that subtype B and F1 co-infection occurs frequently within the HIV-positive MSM population as suggested by large number of BF1 recombinant viruses reported in Brazil. This finding will help us track the epidemic and provide support for the development of immunization strategies against the HIV.

Modeling the emergence of HIV-1 drug resistance resulting from antiretroviral therapy: Insights from theoretical and numerical studies

The use of antiretroviral therapy has proven to be remarkably effective in controlling the progression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and prolonging patient's survival. Therapy however may fail and therefore these benefits can be compromised by the emergence of HIV strains that are resistant to the therapy. In view of these facts, the question of finding the reason for which drug-resistant strains emerge during therapy has become a worldwide problem of great interest. This paper presents a deterministic HIV-1 model to examine the mechanisms underlying the emergence of drug-resistance during therapy. The aim of this study is to determine whether, and how fast, antiretroviral therapy may determine the emergence of drug resistance by calculating the basic reproductive numbers. The existence, feasibility and local stability of the equilibriums are also analyzed. By performing numerical simulations we show that Hopf bifurcation may occur. The model suggests that the individuals with drug-resistant infection may play an important role in the epidemic of HIV. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in severe hypoxemia: time for reappraisal?

in 2009, during the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic, there were many reported cases of pulmonary infection with severe hypoxemia that was refractory to the ventilatory strategies and rescue therapies commonly used to treat patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Many of those cases were treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which renewed international interest in the technique. The Extracorporeal Support Study Group was created in order to practice ECMO and to employ it in the treatment of patients with severe hypoxemia. In this article, we discuss the indications for using ECMO and report the case of a patient with refractory hypoxemia who was successfully treated with ECMO.

Prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted with a non-probabilistic sample of 1,405 homeless users of shelters in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2007. They were all tested for HIV and a structured questionnaire was applied. Their vulnerability to HIV was determined by the frequency of condom use: those who reported using condoms only occasionally or never were considered the most vulnerable. Multinomial and logistic regression models were used to estimate effect measures and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: There was a predominance of males (85.6%), with a mean age of 40.9 years, 72.0% had complete elementary schooling, and 71.5% were non-white. Of all respondents, 15.7% reported being homosexual or bisexual and 62,0% reported having casual sex. The mean number of sexual partners in the last 12 months was 5.4. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported lifetime drug use, while 25.7% reported frequent use. Sexually-transmitted disease was reported by 39.6% of the homeless and 38.3% reported always using condoms. The prevalence of HIV infection was 4.9% (17.4% also tested positive for syphilis) and about half of the respondents (55.4%) had access to prevention programs. Higher HIV prevalence was associated with younger age (18-29 years, OR = 4.0 [95% CI 1.54; 10.46]); past history of sexually-transmitted disease (OR = 3.3 [95% CI 1.87; 5.73]); homosexual sex (OR = 3.0 [95% CI 1.28; 6.92]); and syphilis (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 1.13; 4.93]). Increased vulnerability to HIV infection was associated with being female; young; homosexual sex; having few partners or a steady partner; drug and alcohol use; not having access to prevention programs and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic has a major impact on homeless people reflecting a cycle of exclusion, social vulnerability, and limited access to prevention.

Spatial distribution of arboviral mosquito vectors (Diptera, Culicidae) in Vale do Ribeira in the South-eastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Mosquitoes are vectors of arboviruses that can cause encephalitis and hemorrhagic fevers in humans. Aedes serratus (Theobald), Aedes scapularis (Rondani) and Psorophora ferox (Von Humboldt) are potential vectors of arboviruses and are abundant in Vale do Ribeira, located in the Atlantic Forest in the southeast of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of these mosquitoes and estimate the risk of human exposure to mosquito bites. Results of the analyses show that humans are highly exposed to bites in the municipalities of Cananeia, Iguape and Ilha Comprida. In these localities the incidence of Rocio encephalitis was 2% in the 1970s. Furthermore, Ae. serratus, a recently implicated vector of yellow fever virus in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, should be a target for the entomological surveillance in the southeastern Atlantic Forest. Considering the continental dimensions of Brazil and the inherent difficulties in sampling its vast area, the habitat suitability method used in the study can be an important tool for predicting the distribution of vectors of pathogens.

Prevalence, populations and pheno- and genotypic characteristics of Listeria monocytogenes isolated from ready-to-eat vegetables marketed in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen of great concern due to the high fatality rates of listeriosis. The consumption of RTE vegetables has increased in Brazil over the last two decades, but little is known about the risks associated to the consumption of these products. This study evaluated the prevalence and counts of L. monocytogenes in 512 packages of ready-to-eat vegetables marketed in Sao Paulo. The isolates were characterized for their serotypes, ribotypes, positivity for virulence genes inIA, inIC and inIJ, resistance to chlorine, growth rate variability and capability to form biofilm on stainless steel (AISI 304, #4) coupons. L. monocytogenes was detected in 3.1% of the samples. Only five samples presented countable levels, with counts between 1.0x10(1) and 2.6x10(2) CFU/g. Isolates belonged to serotypes 1/2b or 4b and most were positive for genes inIC and inIJ. Ribotypable isolates were grouped into four groups: 1038 (69.4%). 19175 (11.3%), 19191 (17.7%) and 18604 (one isolate). Most isolates survived to exposure to 125 ppm of a chlorine-based disinfectant for 3 min. All isolates were capable to attach to the coupons, reaching counts above 4 log(10) CFU/cm(2) and the growth rate (mu) at 25 degrees C of the majority of the isolates varied between 0.1 and 0.2 log OD/h, but for few strains the mu was as high as 0.26 log OD/h. Results of this survey indicate that RTE vegetables may be vehicles of L. monocytogenes strains with limited variation in serotype, ribotype and virulence factors but varying significantly in resistance to chlorine disinfectants, capability of forming biofilm and growth rate. Data obtained is of foremost importance to serve as baseline for the development of scientific-based policies to control the incidence of L. monocytogenes in RTE vegetables in Brazil. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogeographic Analysis of HIV-1 Subtype C Dissemination in Southern Brazil

The HIV-1 subtype C has spread efficiently in the southern states of Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana). Phylogeographic studies indicate that the subtype C epidemic in southern Brazil was initiated by the introduction of a single founder virus population at some time point between 1960 and 1980, but little is known about the spatial dynamics of viral spread. A total of 135 Brazilian HIV-1 subtype C pol sequences collected from 1992 to 2009 at the three southern state capitals (Porto Alegre, Florianopolis and Curitiba) were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to explore the degree of phylogenetic mixing of subtype C sequences from different cities and to reconstruct the geographical pattern of viral spread in this country region. Phylogeographic analyses supported the monophyletic origin of the HIV-1 subtype C clade circulating in southern Brazil and placed the root of that clade in Curitiba (Parana state). This analysis further suggested that Florianopolis (Santa Catarina state) is an important staging post in the subtype C dissemination displaying high viral migration rates from and to the other cities, while viral flux between Curitiba and Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul state) is very low. We found a positive correlation (r(2) = 0.64) between routine travel and viral migration rates among localities. Despite the intense viral movement, phylogenetic intermixing of subtype C sequences from different Brazilian cities is lower than expected by chance. Notably, a high proportion (67%) of subtype C sequences from Porto Alegre branched within a single local monophyletic sub-cluster. These results suggest that the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in southern Brazil has been shaped by both frequent viral migration among states and in situ dissemination of local clades.

Late entry into HIV care: lessons from Brazil, 2003 to 2006

Background: To ascertain the population rates and proportion of late entry into HIV care, as well as to determine whether such late entry correlates with individual and contextual factors. Methods: Data for the 2003-2006 period in Brazil were obtained from public health records. A case of late entry into HIV care was defined as one in which HIV infection was diagnosed at death, one in which HIV infection was diagnosed after the condition of the patient had already been aggravated by AIDS-related diseases, or one in which the CD4(+) T-cell count was <= 200 cells/mm(3) at the time of diagnosis. We also considered extended and stricter sets of criteria (in which the final criterion was <= 350 cells/mm(3) and <= 100 cells/mm(3), respectively). The estimated risk ratio was used in assessing the effects of correlates, and the population rates (per 100,000 population) were calculated on an annual basis. Results: Records of 115,369 HIV-infected adults were retrieved, and 43.6% (50,358) met the standard criteria for late entry into care. Diagnosis at death accounted for 29% (14,457) of these cases. Late entry into HIV care (standard criterion) was associated with certain individual factors (sex, age, and transmission category) and contextual factors (region with less economic development/increasing incidence of AIDS, lower local HIV testing rate, and smaller municipal population). Use of the extended criteria increased the proportion of late entry by 34% but did not substantially alter the correlations analyzed. The overall population rate of late entry was 9.9/100,000 population, specific rates being highest for individuals in the 30-59 year age bracket, for men, and for individuals living in regions with greater economic development/higher HIV testing rates, collectively accounting for more than half of the cases observed. Conclusions: Although the high proportion of late entry might contribute to spreading the AIDS epidemic in less developed regions, most cases occurred in large cities, with broader availability of HIV testing, and in economically developed regions.

Using Machine Learning Classifiers to Assist Healthcare-Related Decisions: Classification of Electronic Patient Records

Surveillance Levels (SLs) are categories for medical patients (used in Brazil) that represent different types of medical recommendations. SLs are defined according to risk factors and the medical and developmental history of patients. Each SL is associated with specific educational and clinical measures. The objective of the present paper was to verify computer-aided, automatic assignment of SLs. The present paper proposes a computer-aided approach for automatic recommendation of SLs. The approach is based on the classification of information from patient electronic records. For this purpose, a software architecture composed of three layers was developed. The architecture is formed by a classification layer that includes a linguistic module and machine learning classification modules. The classification layer allows for the use of different classification methods, including the use of preprocessed, normalized language data drawn from the linguistic module. We report the verification and validation of the software architecture in a Brazilian pediatric healthcare institution. The results indicate that selection of attributes can have a great effect on the performance of the system. Nonetheless, our automatic recommendation of surveillance level can still benefit from improvements in processing procedures when the linguistic module is applied prior to classification. Results from our efforts can be applied to different types of medical systems. The results of systems supported by the framework presented in this paper may be used by healthcare and governmental institutions to improve healthcare services in terms of establishing preventive measures and alerting authorities about the possibility of an epidemic.