Robust modeling using the generalized epsilon-skew-t distribution

In this paper, an alternative skew Student-t family of distributions is studied. It is obtained as an extension of the generalized Student-t (GS-t) family introduced by McDonald and Newey [10]. The extension that is obtained can be seen as a reparametrization of the skewed GS-t distribution considered by Theodossiou [14]. A key element in the construction of such an extension is that it can be stochastically represented as a mixture of an epsilon-skew-power-exponential distribution [1] and a generalized-gamma distribution. From this representation, we can readily derive theoretical properties and easy-to-implement simulation schemes. Furthermore, we study some of its main properties including stochastic representation, moments and asymmetry and kurtosis coefficients. We also derive the Fisher information matrix, which is shown to be nonsingular for some special cases such as when the asymmetry parameter is null, that is, at the vicinity of symmetry, and discuss maximum-likelihood estimation. Simulation studies for some particular cases and real data analysis are also reported, illustrating the usefulness of the extension considered.

Modeling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Black Pepper (Piper nigrum) in Asia Using GIS Tools

Known as the "king of spices", black pepper (Piper nigrum), a perennial crop of the tropics, is economically the most important and the most widely used spice crop in the world. To understand its suitable bioclimatic distribution, maximum entropy based on ecological niche modeling was used to model the bioclimatic niches of the species in its Asian range. Based on known occurrences, bioclimatic areas with higher probabilities are mainly located in the eastern and western coasts of the Indian Peninsula, the east of Sumatra Island, some areas in the Malay Archipelago, and the southeast coastal areas of China. Some undocumented places were also predicted as suitable areas. According to the jackknife procedure, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean monthly temperature range, and the precipitation of the wettest month were identified as highly effective factors in the distribution of black pepper and could possibly account for the crop's distribution pattern. Such climatic requirements inhibited this species from dispersing and gaining a larger geographical range.

Species Distribution Modeling for Conservation Purposes

Species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for different conservation purposes. We discuss the importance of fitting spatial scale and using current records and relevant predictors aiming conservation. We choose jaguar (Panthera onca) as a target species and Brazil and Atlantic Forest biome as study areas. We tested two different extents (continent and biome) and resolutions (similar to 4 Km and similar to 1 Km) in Maxent with 186 records and 11 predictors (bioclimatic, elevation, land-use and landscape structure). All models presented satisfactory AUC values (>0.70) and low omission errors (<23%). SDMs were scale-sensitive as the use of reduced extent implied in significant gains to model performance generating more constrained and real predictive distribution maps. Continental-scale models performed poorly in predicting potential current jaguar distribution, but they reached the historic distribution. Specificity increased significantly from coarse to finer-scale models due to the reduction of overprediction. The variability of environmental space (E-space) differed for most of climatic variables between continental and biome-scale and the representation of the E-space by predictors differed significantly (t = 2.42, g.I. = 9, P < 0.05). Refining spatial scale, incorporating landscape variables and improving the quality of biological data are essential for improving model prediction for conservation purposes.

Robust statistical modeling using the Birnbaum-Saunders-t distribution applied to insurance

In this paper, we carry out robust modeling and influence diagnostics in Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) regression models. Specifically, we present some aspects related to BS and log-BS distributions and their generalizations from the Student-t distribution, and develop BS-t regression models, including maximum likelihood estimation based on the EM algorithm and diagnostic tools. In addition, we apply the obtained results to real data from insurance, which shows the uses of the proposed model. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

New approach for power transformer protection based on intelligent hybrid systems

A power transformer needs continuous monitoring and fast protection as it is a very expensive piece of equipment and an essential element in an electrical power system. The most common protection technique used is the percentage differential logic, which provides discrimination between an internal fault and different operating conditions. Unfortunately, there are some operating conditions of power transformers that can mislead the conventional protection affecting the power system stability negatively. This study proposes the development of a new algorithm to improve the protection performance by using fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. An electrical power system was modelled using Alternative Transients Program software to obtain the operational conditions and fault situations needed to test the algorithm developed, as well as a commercial differential relay. Results show improved reliability, as well as a fast response of the proposed technique when compared with conventional ones.

Modeling of continuous thermal processing of a non-Newtonian liquid food under diffusive laminar flow in a tubular system

The classic conservative approach for thermal process design can lead to over-processing, especially for laminar flow, when a significant distribution of temperature and of residence time occurs. In order to optimize quality retention, a more comprehensive model is required. A model comprising differential equations for mass and heat transfer is proposed for the simulation of the continuous thermal processing of a non-Newtonian food in a tubular system. The model takes into account the contribution from heating and cooling sections, the heat exchange with the ambient air and effective diffusion associated with non-ideal laminar flow. The study case of soursop juice processing was used to test the model. Various simulations were performed to evaluate the effect of the model assumptions. An expressive difference in the predicted lethality was observed between the classic approach and the proposed model. The main advantage of the model is its flexibility to represent different aspects with a small computational time, making it suitable for process evaluation and design. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drag reduction phenomenon in viscous oil-water dispersed pipe flow: Experimental investigation and phenomenological modeling

An experimental study on drag-reduction phenomenon in dispersed oil-water flow has been performed in a 26-mm-i.d. Twelve meter long horizontal glass pipe. The flow was characterized using a novel wire-mesh sensor based on capacitance measurements and high-speed video recording. New two-phase pressure gradient, volume fraction, and phase distribution data have been used in the analysis. Drag reduction and slip ratio were detected at oil volume fractions between 10 and 45% and high mixture Reynolds numbers, and with water as the dominant phase. Phase-fraction distribution diagrams and cross-sectional imaging of the flow suggested the presence of a higher amount of water near to the pipe wall. Based on that, a phenomenology for explaining drag reduction in dispersed flow in a flow situation where slip ratio is significant is proposed. A simple phenomenological model is developed and the agreement between model predictions and data, including data from the literature, is encouraging. (c) 2011 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2012

The gene transformer-2 of Anastrepha fruit flies (Diptera, Tephritidae) and its evolution in insects

Abstract Background In the tephritids Ceratitis, Bactrocera and Anastrepha, the gene transformer provides the memory device for sex determination via its auto-regulation; only in females is functional Tra protein produced. To date, the isolation and characterisation of the gene transformer-2 in the tephritids has only been undertaken in Ceratitis, and it has been shown that its function is required for the female-specific splicing of doublesex and transformer pre-mRNA. It therefore participates in transformer auto-regulatory function. In this work, the characterisation of this gene in eleven tephritid species belonging to the less extensively analysed genus Anastrepha was undertaken in order to throw light on the evolution of transformer-2. Results The gene transformer-2 produces a protein of 249 amino acids in both sexes, which shows the features of the SR protein family. No significant partially spliced mRNA isoform specific to the male germ line was detected, unlike in Drosophila. It is transcribed in both sexes during development and in adult life, in both the soma and germ line. The injection of Anastrepha transformer-2 dsRNA into Anastrepha embryos caused a change in the splicing pattern of the endogenous transformer and doublesex pre-mRNA of XX females from the female to the male mode. Consequently, these XX females were transformed into pseudomales. The comparison of the eleven Anastrepha Transformer-2 proteins among themselves, and with the Transformer-2 proteins of other insects, suggests the existence of negative selection acting at the protein level to maintain Transformer-2 structural features. Conclusions These results indicate that transformer-2 is required for sex determination in Anastrepha through its participation in the female-specific splicing of transformer and doublesex pre-mRNAs. It is therefore needed for the auto-regulation of the gene transformer. Thus, the transformer/transfomer-2 > doublesex elements at the bottom of the cascade, and their relationships, probably represent the ancestral state (which still exists in the Tephritidae, Calliphoridae and Muscidae lineages) of the extant cascade found in the Drosophilidae lineage (in which tra is just another component of the sex determination gene cascade regulated by Sex-lethal). In the phylogenetic lineage that gave rise to the drosophilids, evolution co-opted for Sex-lethal, modified it, and converted it into the key gene controlling sex determination.

Modeling gene expression regulatory networks with the sparse vector autoregressive model

Abstract Background To understand the molecular mechanisms underlying important biological processes, a detailed description of the gene products networks involved is required. In order to define and understand such molecular networks, some statistical methods are proposed in the literature to estimate gene regulatory networks from time-series microarray data. However, several problems still need to be overcome. Firstly, information flow need to be inferred, in addition to the correlation between genes. Secondly, we usually try to identify large networks from a large number of genes (parameters) originating from a smaller number of microarray experiments (samples). Due to this situation, which is rather frequent in Bioinformatics, it is difficult to perform statistical tests using methods that model large gene-gene networks. In addition, most of the models are based on dimension reduction using clustering techniques, therefore, the resulting network is not a gene-gene network but a module-module network. Here, we present the Sparse Vector Autoregressive model as a solution to these problems. Results We have applied the Sparse Vector Autoregressive model to estimate gene regulatory networks based on gene expression profiles obtained from time-series microarray experiments. Through extensive simulations, by applying the SVAR method to artificial regulatory networks, we show that SVAR can infer true positive edges even under conditions in which the number of samples is smaller than the number of genes. Moreover, it is possible to control for false positives, a significant advantage when compared to other methods described in the literature, which are based on ranks or score functions. By applying SVAR to actual HeLa cell cycle gene expression data, we were able to identify well known transcription factor targets. Conclusion The proposed SVAR method is able to model gene regulatory networks in frequent situations in which the number of samples is lower than the number of genes, making it possible to naturally infer partial Granger causalities without any a priori information. In addition, we present a statistical test to control the false discovery rate, which was not previously possible using other gene regulatory network models.

Pharmacokinetic properties and in silico ADME modeling in drug discovery

The discovery and development of a new drug are time-consuming, difficult and expensive. This complex process has evolved from classical methods into an integration of modern technologies and innovative strategies addressed to the design of new chemical entities to treat a variety of diseases. The development of new drug candidates is often limited by initial compounds lacking reasonable chemical and biological properties for further lead optimization. Huge libraries of compounds are frequently selected for biological screening using a variety of techniques and standard models to assess potency, affinity and selectivity. In this context, it is very important to study the pharmacokinetic profile of the compounds under investigation. Recent advances have been made in the collection of data and the development of models to assess and predict pharmacokinetic properties (ADME - absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion) of bioactive compounds in the early stages of drug discovery projects. This paper provides a brief perspective on the evolution of in silico ADME tools, addressing challenges, limitations, and opportunities in medicinal chemistry.