Robust modeling using the generalized epsilon-skew-t distribution

In this paper, an alternative skew Student-t family of distributions is studied. It is obtained as an extension of the generalized Student-t (GS-t) family introduced by McDonald and Newey [10]. The extension that is obtained can be seen as a reparametrization of the skewed GS-t distribution considered by Theodossiou [14]. A key element in the construction of such an extension is that it can be stochastically represented as a mixture of an epsilon-skew-power-exponential distribution [1] and a generalized-gamma distribution. From this representation, we can readily derive theoretical properties and easy-to-implement simulation schemes. Furthermore, we study some of its main properties including stochastic representation, moments and asymmetry and kurtosis coefficients. We also derive the Fisher information matrix, which is shown to be nonsingular for some special cases such as when the asymmetry parameter is null, that is, at the vicinity of symmetry, and discuss maximum-likelihood estimation. Simulation studies for some particular cases and real data analysis are also reported, illustrating the usefulness of the extension considered.

On Equilibrium Distribution of a Reversible Growth Model

We study a probabilistic model of interacting spins indexed by elements of a finite subset of the d-dimensional integer lattice, da parts per thousand yen1. Conditions of time reversibility are examined. It is shown that the model equilibrium distribution converges to a limit distribution as the indexing set expands to the whole lattice. The occupied site percolation problem is solved for the limit distribution. Two models with similar dynamics are also discussed.

Local power and size properties of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests in dispersion models

We derive asymptotic expansions for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of dispersion models, under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the precision parameter. Based on these nonnull asymptotic expansions, the power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Positive End-expiratory Pressure Titration and Recruitment Maneuver on Lung Inflammation and Hyperinflation in Experimental Acid Aspiration-induced Lung Injury

Background: In acute lung injury positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) and recruitment maneuver are proposed to optimize arterial oxygenation. The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of such a strategy on lung histological inflammation and hyperinflation in pigs with acid aspiration-induced lung injury. Methods: Forty-seven pigs were randomly allocated in seven groups: (1) controls spontaneously breathing; (2) without lung injury, PEEP 5 cm H2O; (3) without lung injury, PEEP titration; (4) without lung injury, PEEP titration + recruitment maneuver; (5) with lung injury, PEEP 5 cm H2O; (6) with lung injury, PEEP titration; and (7) with lung injury, PEEP titration + recruitment maneuver. Acute lung injury was induced by intratracheal instillation of hydrochloric acid. PEEP titration was performed by incremental and decremental PEEP from 5 to 20 cm H2O for optimizing arterial oxygenation. Three recruitment maneuvers (pressure of 40 cm H2O maintained for 20 s) were applied to the assigned groups at each PEEP level. Proportion of lung inflammation, hemorrhage, edema, and alveolar wall disruption were recorded on each histological field. Mean alveolar area was measured in the aerated lung regions. Results: Acid aspiration increased mean alveolar area and produced alveolar wall disruption, lung edema, alveolar hemorrhage, and lung inflammation. PEEP titration significantly improved arterial oxygenation but simultaneously increased lung inflammation in juxta-diaphragmatic lung regions. Recruitment maneuver during PEEP titration did not induce additional increase in lung inflammation and alveolar hyperinflation. Conclusion: In a porcine model of acid aspiration-induced lung injury, PEEP titration aimed at optimizing arterial oxygenation, substantially increased lung inflammation. Recruitment maneuvers further improved arterial oxygenation without additional effects on inflammation and hyperinflation.

A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.

A model of road effect using line integrals and a test of the performance of two new road indices using the distribution of small mammals in an Atlantic Forest landscape

Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Brazilian Experience With the Use of the Shield Wire Line Technology (SWL) for Energy Distribution

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of the lightning overvoltages on the operational performance of the energized shield wire line technology (SWL) implemented in two locations of the State of Rondonia, Brazil. The analysis covers the periods of 1996 to 2000 (SWL Jaru) and 1997 to 2002 (SWL Itapua do Oeste), and shows that lightning is responsible for most of the system outages. The paper describes the satisfactory results achieved with the system, showing that the isolation and energization of the shield wires does not deteriorate the lightning performance of the 230 kV transmission lines. Comparisons between the performances of the SWL technology, conventional 34.5 kV lines, and thermal power plants in operation in the same region are also presented. The results demonstrate the technical and economical viability of the SWL technology and show that its application can lead to a postponement of investments.

Residence Time Distribution Models Derived from Non-Ideal Laminar Velocity Profiles in Tubes

The theoretical E-curve for the laminar flow of non-Newtonian fluids in circular tubes may not be accurate for real tubular systems with diffusion, mechanical vibration, wall roughness, pipe fittings, curves, coils, or corrugated walls. Deviations from the idealized laminar flow reactor (LFR) cannot be well represented using the axial dispersion or the tanks-in-series models of residence time distribution (RTD). In this work, four RTD models derived from non-ideal velocity profiles in segregated tube flow are proposed. They were used to represent the RTD of three tubular systems working with Newtonian and pseudoplastic fluids. Other RTD models were considered for comparison. The proposed models provided good adjustments, and it was possible to determine the active volumes. It is expected that these models can be useful for the analysis of LFR or for the evaluation of continuous thermal processing of viscous foods.

High-throughput sequencing of small RNA transcriptomes reveals critical biological features targeted by microRNAs in cell models used for squamous cell cancer research

Abstract Background The implication of post-transcriptional regulation by microRNAs in molecular mechanisms underlying cancer disease is well documented. However, their interference at the cellular level is not fully explored. Functional in vitro studies are fundamental for the comprehension of their role; nevertheless results are highly dependable on the adopted cellular model. Next generation small RNA transcriptomic sequencing data of a tumor cell line and keratinocytes derived from primary culture was generated in order to characterize the microRNA content of these systems, thus helping in their understanding. Both constitute cell models for functional studies of microRNAs in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), a smoking-related cancer. Known microRNAs were quantified and analyzed in the context of gene regulation. New microRNAs were investigated using similarity and structural search, ab initio classification, and prediction of the location of mature microRNAs within would-be precursor sequences. Results were compared with small RNA transcriptomic sequences from HNSCC samples in order to access the applicability of these cell models for cancer phenotype comprehension and for novel molecule discovery. Results Ten miRNAs represented over 70% of the mature molecules present in each of the cell types. The most expressed molecules were miR-21, miR-24 and miR-205, Accordingly; miR-21 and miR-205 have been previously shown to play a role in epithelial cell biology. Although miR-21 has been implicated in cancer development, and evaluated as a biomarker in HNSCC progression, no significant expression differences were seen between cell types. We demonstrate that differentially expressed mature miRNAs target cell differentiation and apoptosis related biological processes, indicating that they might represent, with acceptable accuracy, the genetic context from which they derive. Most miRNAs identified in the cancer cell line and in keratinocytes were present in tumor samples and cancer-free samples, respectively, with miR-21, miR-24 and miR-205 still among the most prevalent molecules at all instances. Thirteen miRNA-like structures, containing reads identified by the deep sequencing, were predicted from putative miRNA precursor sequences. Strong evidences suggest that one of them could be a new miRNA. This molecule was mostly expressed in the tumor cell line and HNSCC samples indicating a possible biological function in cancer. Conclusions Critical biological features of cells must be fully understood before they can be chosen as models for functional studies. Expression levels of miRNAs relate to cell type and tissue context. This study provides insights on miRNA content of two cell models used for cancer research. Pathways commonly deregulated in HNSCC might be targeted by most expressed and also by differentially expressed miRNAs. Results indicate that the use of cell models for cancer research demands careful assessment of underlying molecular characteristics for proper data interpretation. Additionally, one new miRNA-like molecule with a potential role in cancer was identified in the cell lines and clinical samples.

Analysis of the Dielectric Behavior of Distribution Insulators Under Non-Standard Lightning Impulses Voltages

Overhead distribution lines are often exposed to lightning overvoltages, whose waveforms vary widely and can differ substantially from the standard impulse voltage waveform (1,2 - 50). Different models have been proposed for predicting the strength of insulation subjected to impulses of non-standard waveforms. One of the most commonly used is the disruptive effect model, for which there are different methods for the estimation of the parameters required for its application. This paper aims at evaluating the dielectric behavior of medium voltage insulators subjected to impulses of non-standard waveforms, as well as at evaluating two methods for predicting their dielectric strength against such impulses. The test results relative to the critical lightning impulse flashover voltage (U50) and the volt-time characteristics obtained for the positive and negative polarities of different voltage waveforms are presented and discussed.

Spatial analysis of egg distribution and geographic changes in the spawning habitat of the Brazilian sardine Sardinella brasiliensis

This paper establishes the spawning habitat of the Brazilian sardine Sardinella brasiliensis and investigates the spatial variability of egg density and its relation with oceanographic conditions in the shelf of the south-east Brazil Bight (SBB). The spawning habitats of S. brasiliensis have been defined in terms of spatial models of egg density, temperature-salinity plots, quotient (Q) analysis and remote sensing data. Quotient curves (Q(C)) were constructed using the geographic distribution of egg density, temperature and salinity from samples collected during nine survey cruises between 1976 and 1993. The interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability was determined using principal component analysis on the SST anomalies (SSTA) estimated from remote sensing data over the period between 1985 and 2007. The spatial pattern of egg occurrences in the SBB indicated that the largest concentration occurred between Paranagua and Sao Sebastiao. Spawning habitat expanded and contracted during the years, fluctuating around Paranagua. In January 1978 and January 1993, eggs were found nearly everywhere along the inner shelf of the SBB, while in January 1988 and 1991 spawning had contracted to their southernmost position. The SSTA maps for the spawning periods showed that in the case of habitat expansion (1993 only) anomalies over the SBB were zero or slightly negative, whereas for the contraction period anomalies were all positive. Sardinella brasiliensis is capable of exploring suitable spawning sites provided by the entrainment of the colder and less-saline South Atlantic Central Water onto the shelf by means of both coastal wind-driven (to the north-east of the SBB) and meander-induced (to the south-west of the SBB) upwelling.

The exponential COM-Poisson distribution

The Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COMP) distribution as an extension of the Poisson distribution is a popular model for analyzing counting data. For the first time, we introduce a new three parameter distribution, so-called the exponential-Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ECOMP) distribution, that contains as sub-models the exponential-geometric and exponential-Poisson distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (Stat Probab Lett 39:35-42, 1998) and KuAY (Comput Stat Data Anal 51:4497-4509, 2007), respectively. The new density function can be expressed as a mixture of exponential density functions. Expansions for moments, moment generating function and some statistical measures are provided. The density function of the order statistics can also be expressed as a mixture of exponential densities. We derive two formulae for the moments of order statistics. The elements of the observed information matrix are provided. Two applications illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution to analyze positive data.

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes

A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes is introduced. The proposed model may accommodate the original single shift setting to the more realistic situation of gradual quality deterioration and allows the incorporation of an expert's opinion on the production process. Based on the number of inspections to be carried out until a defective item is found, the Bayesian operation for the distribution function that represents the increasing sequence of defective fractions during a cycle considering a mixture of Dirichlet processes as prior distribution is performed. Bayes estimates for relevant quantities are also obtained. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probing the properties of Be star discs with spectroastrometry and NLTE radiative transfer modelling: beta CMi

While the presence of discs around classical Be stars is well established, their origin is still uncertain. To understand what processes result in the creation of these discs and how angular momentum is transported within them, their physical properties must be constrained. This requires comparing high spatial and spectral resolution data with detailed radiative transfer modelling. We present a high spectral resolution, R similar to 80 000, sub-milliarcsecond precision, spectroastrometric study of the circumstellar disc around the Be star beta CMi. The data are confronted with 3D, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium radiative transfer calculations to directly constrain the properties of the disc. Furthermore, we compare the data to disc models featuring two velocity laws: Keplerian, the prediction of the viscous disc model, and angular momentum conserving rotation. It is shown that the observations of beta CMi can only be reproduced using Keplerian rotation. The agreement between the model and the observed spectral energy distribution, polarization and spectroastrometric signature of beta CMi confirms that the discs around Be stars are well modelled as viscous decretion discs.

Carbon monoxide and related trace gases and aerosols over the Amazon Basin during the wet and dry seasons

We present the results of airborne measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol particle number concentration (CN) made during the Balan double dagger o Atmosf,rico Regional de Carbono na Amazonia (BARCA) program. The primary goal of BARCA is to address the question of basin-scale sources and sinks of CO2 and other atmospheric carbon species, a central issue of the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) program. The experiment consisted of two aircraft campaigns during November-December 2008 (BARCA-A) and May-June 2009 (BARCA-B), which covered the altitude range from the surface up to about 4500 m, and spanned most of the Amazon Basin. Based on meteorological analysis and measurements of the tracer, SF6, we found that airmasses over the Amazon Basin during the late dry season (BARCA-A, November 2008) originated predominantly from the Southern Hemisphere, while during the late wet season (BARCA-B, May 2009) low-level airmasses were dominated by northern-hemispheric inflow and mid-tropospheric airmasses were of mixed origin. In BARCA-A we found strong influence of biomass burning emissions on the composition of the atmosphere over much of the Amazon Basin, with CO enhancements up to 300 ppb and CN concentrations approaching 10 000 cm(-3); the highest values were in the southern part of the Basin at altitudes of 1-3 km. The Delta CN/Delta CO ratios were diagnostic for biomass burning emissions, and were lower in aged than in fresh smoke. Fresh emissions indicated CO/CO2 and CN/CO emission ratios in good agreement with previous work, but our results also highlight the need to consider the residual smoldering combustion that takes place after the active flaming phase of deforestation fires. During the late wet season, in contrast, there was little evidence for a significant presence of biomass smoke. Low CN concentrations (300-500 cm(-3)) prevailed basinwide, and CO mixing ratios were enhanced by only similar to 10 ppb above the mixing line between Northern and Southern Hemisphere air. There was no detectable trend in CO with distance from the coast, but there was a small enhancement of CO in the boundary layer suggesting diffuse biogenic sources from photochemical degradation of biogenic volatile organic compounds or direct biological emission. Simulations of CO distributions during BARCA-A using a range of models yielded general agreement in spatial distribution and confirm the important contribution from biomass burning emissions, but the models evidence some systematic quantitative differences compared to observed CO concentrations. These mismatches appear to be related to problems with the accuracy of the global background fields, the role of vertical transport and biomass smoke injection height, the choice of model resolution, and reliability and temporal resolution of the emissions data base.