Impact of biannual rossby waves on the Indian Ocean Dipole

Topex/Poseidon sea surface height anomalies during 1993-2002 are decomposed using 2-D finite impulse response filters which showed biannual Rossby waves (BRWs) in the equatorial Indian Ocean (peak at 1.5 degrees S) and in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (peak at 10.5 degrees S) during Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. Anomalous downwelling BRWs in the equatorial Indian Ocean triggered by the wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping near the eastern boundary started propagating westward from the eastern boundary in July/August 1993 and 1996, i.e., more than one year prior to the formation of the IOD events of 1994 and 1997 respectively. These strong downwelling signals reach the western equatorial Indian Ocean during the peak dipole time.

Sets of probability distributions, independence, and convexity

This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.

Aplicação de parâmetros convectivos para um caso de linha de instabilidade

Este trabalho visa avaliar a aplicação de parâmetros convectivos (PC) para um caso de linha de instabilidade (LI) ocorrida sobre a Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP), com o intuito de demonstrar como o uso da modelagem numérica, utilizando o modelo BRAMS (Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), pode contribuir principalmente com a obtenção de perfis atmosféricos, necessários para uma boa previsão das tempestades.

Heat island simulations in Londrina city, Brazil

This work aims to study the urban heat island on North region of Parana state, Brazil and the influence of land use and urban settlements on the intensity and frequency of occurrence of these events. Through atmospheric modeling whith WRF/Chem model two simulations were made with different land and use files, one with the original land use another obtained from a composition of MODIS-Landsat imagery. The simulations showed good skills compared to observed data. Urban areas presented higher temperatures. Landsat land use has represented better urban heat islands (UHI), the gradient between urban and rural areas was well demonstrated and the correlation coefficient was above 0.92. The model underestimated the maximum values and overestimated the minimum compared with observed data in both simulations.

Impacto da temperatura da superfície do mar na simulação da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul

Durante o verão austral, diversas regiões do Brasil são afetadas por precipitação intensa, geralmente associada à Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS). O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi investigar a influência da resolução espacial e temporal dos dados de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) na simulação da precipitação associada à ZCAS. Foram realizadas simulações com o modelo BRAMS (Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) para dois eventos de ZCAS, ocorridos em 1998 (El Niño) e 1999 (La Niña). A quantidade de precipitação acumulada na parte oceânica da ZCAS foi maior nos experimentos com TSM mais quente. Índices estatísticos foram utilizados para verificação do desempenho do modelo na simulação de precipitação nas regiões que compõem a ZCAS (oceânica, costeira e amazônica), com diferentes dados de TSM. A resolução espaço-temporal dos dados de TSM influencia de forma pouco significativa na representação da ZCAS pelo modelo BRAMS. O modelo é mais eficiente em identificar a ocorrência/não ocorrência de chuva do que em localizar núcleos mais intensos e seu desempenho foi superior (inferior) na região amazônica (oceânica) da ZCAS.

Impacts of interruption of the Agulhas leakage on the tropical Atlantic in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations

In this paper we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to investigate the impact of the interruption of Agulhas leakage of Indian ocean water on the tropical Atlantic, a region where strong coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions occur. The effect of a shut down of leakage of Indian ocean water is isolated from the effect of a collapse of the MOC. In our experiments, the ocean model is forced with boundary conditions in the southeastern corner of the domain that correspond to no interocean exchange of Indian ocean water into the Atlantic. The southern boundary condition is taken from the Levitus data and ensures an MOC in the Atlantic. Within this configuration, instead of warm and salty Indian ocean water temperature (cold) and salinity (fresh) anomalies of southern ocean origin propagate into the South Atlantic and eventually reach the equatorial region, mainly in the thermocline. This set up mimics the closure of the ""warm water path"" in favor of the ""cold water path"". As part of the atmospheric response, there is a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The changes in trade winds lead to reduced Ekman pumping in the equatorial region. This leads to a freshening and warming of the surface waters along the equator. Especially in the Cold Tongue region, the cold and fresh subsurface anomalies do not reach the surface due to the reduced upwelling. The anomaly signals are transported by the equatorial undercurrent and spread away from the equator within the thermocline. Part of the anomaly eventually reaches the Tropical North Atlantic, where it affects the Guinea Dome. Surprisingly, the main effect at the surface is small on the equator and relatively large at the Guinea Dome. In the atmosphere, the northward shift of the ITCZ is associated with a band of negative precipitation anomalies and higher salinities over the Tropical South Atlantic. An important implication of these results is that the modified water characteristics due to a shut down of the Agulhas leakage remain largely unaffected when crossing the equatorial Atlantic and therefore can affect the deepwater formation in the North Atlantic. This supports the hypothesis that the Agulhas leakage is an important source region for climate change and decadal variability of the Atlantic.

The place of (explicit) grammar within the methods and approaches of foreign language teaching: in the north, in the centre or on the margins?

This article analyzes the role that has been attributed to grammar throughout the history of foreign language teaching, with special emphasis on methods and approaches of the twentieth century. In order to support our argument, we discuss the notion of grammar by proposing a conceptual continuum that includes the main meanings of the term which are relevant to our research. We address as well the issue of "pedagogical grammar" and consider the position of grammar in the different approaches of the "era of the methods" and the current "post-method condition" in the field of language teaching and learning. The findings presented at the end of the text consist of recognizing the central role that grammar has played throughout the history of the methods and approaches, where grammar has always been present by the definition of the contents' progression. The rationale that we propose for this is the recognition of the fact that the dissociation between what is said and how it is said can not be more than theoretical and, thus, artificial.

Molecular Surveillance of the Newcastle Disease Virus in Domestic and Wild Birds on the North Eastern Coast and Amazon Biome of Brazil

Brazil is one of the world's largest countries with a rich diversity of wildlife, including resident and migratory wild birds, which may be natural reservoirs of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV). Because Brazil is a major global exporter of chicken meat, the emergence of such a disease may have a huge negative impact not only on the economy due to trade restrictions and embargoes, but also on the quality of life of the population. Samples were collected from 1,022 asymptomatic domestic and wild birds from the Brazilian coast and the Amazon region using tracheal/cloacal swabs and tested by RT-qPCR. The results showed 7 (0.7%) birds were positive for NDV. The positive samples were then isolated in embryonated chicken eggs and their matrix protein genes were partially sequenced, revealing a low-pathogenicity NDV. This study confirms the maintenance of the velogenic-NDV free status of Brazil.

Molecular surveillance of the Newcastle disease virus in domestic and wild birds on the North Eastern Coast and Amazon biome of Brazil

Brazil is one of the world's largest countries with a rich diversity of wildlife, including resident and migratory wild birds, which may be natural reservoirs of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV). Because Brazil is a major global exporter of chicken meat, the emergence of such a disease may have a huge negative impact not only on the economy due to trade restrictions and embargoes, but also on the quality of life of the population. Samples were collected from 1,022 asymptomatic domestic and wild birds from the Brazilian coast and the Amazon region using tracheal/cloacal swabs and tested by RT-qPCR. The results showed 7 (0.7%) birds were positive for NDV. The positive samples were then isolated in embryonated chicken eggs and their matrix protein genes were partially sequenced, revealing a low-pathogenicity NDV. This study confirms the maintenance of the velogenic-NDV free status of Brazil.