Exploration of the parameter space in an agent-based model of tuberculosis spread: emergence of drug resistance in developing vs developed countries

In this work we present an agent-based model for the spread of tuberculosis where the individuals can be infected with either drug-susceptible or drug-resistant strains and can also receive a treatment. The dynamics of the model and the role of each one of the parameters are explained. The whole set of parameters is explored to check their importance in the numerical simulation results. The model captures the beneficial impact of the adequate treatment on the prevalence of tuberculosis. Nevertheless, depending on the treatment parameters range, it also captures the emergence of drug resistance. Drug resistance emergence is particularly likely to occur for parameter values corresponding to less efficacious treatment, as usually found in developing countries.

Making the case for grid-connected photovoltaics in Brazil

In the developed world, grid-connected photovoltaics (PVs) are the fastest-growing segment of the energy market. From 1999 to 2009, this industry had a 42% compound annual growth-rate. From 2009 to 2013, it is expected to grow to 45%, and in 2013 the achievement of grid parity - when the cost of solar electricity becomes competitive with conventional retail (including taxes and charges) grid-supplied electricity - is expected in many places worldwide. Grid-connected PV is usually perceived as an energy technology for developed countries, whereas isolated, stand-alone PV is considered as more suited for applications in developing nations, where so many individuals still lack access to electricity. This rationale is based on the still high costs of PV when compared with conventional electricity. We make the case for grid-connected PV generation in Brazil, showing that with the declining costs of PV and the rising prices of conventional electricity, urban populations in Brazil will also enjoy grid parity in the present decade. We argue that governments in developing nations should act promptly and establish the mandates and necessary conditions for their energy industry to accumulate experience in grid-connected PV, and make the most of this benign technology in the near future. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lean diesel technology and human health: a case study in six Brazilian metropolitan regions

OBJECTIVE: Due to their toxicity, diesel emissions have been submitted to progressively more restrictive regulations in developed countries. However, in Brazil, the implementation of the Cleaner Diesel Technologies policy (Euro IV standards for vehicles produced in 2009 and low-sulfur diesel with 50 ppm of sulfur) was postponed until 2012 without a comprehensive analysis of the effect of this delay on public health parameters. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the delay in implementing the Cleaner Diesel Technologies policy on health indicators and monetary health costs in Brazil. METHODS: The primary estimator of exposure to air pollution was the concentration of ambient fine particulate matter (particles with aerodynamic diameters, <2.5 mu m, [PM2.5]). This parameter was measured daily in six Brazilian metropolitan areas during 2007-2008. We calculated 1) the projected reduction in the PM2.5 that would have been achieved if the Euro IV standards had been implemented in 2009 and 2) the expected reduction after implementation in 2012. The difference between these two time curves was transformed into health outcomes using previous dose-response curves. The economic valuation was performed based on the DALY (disability-adjusted life years) method. RESULTS: The delay in implementing the Cleaner Diesel Technologies policy will result in an estimated excess of 13,984 deaths up to 2040. Health expenditures are projected to be increased by nearly US$ 11.5 billion for the same period. CONCLUSIONS: The present results indicate that a significant health burden will occur because of the postponement in implementing the Cleaner Diesel Technologies policy. These results also reinforce the concept that health effects must be considered when revising fuel and emission policies.

Correlates of the incidence of disability and mortality among older adult Brazilians with and without diabetes mellitus and stroke

Background: The combined effect of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality remains largely unexplored in Brazil and Latin America. Previous studies have been based primarily on data from developed countries. This study addresses the empirical gap by evaluating the combined impact of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality in Brazil. Methods: The sample was drawn from two waves of the Survey on Health and Well-being of the Elderly, which followed 2,143 older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2006. Disability was assessed via measures of activities of daily living (ADL) limitations, severe ADL limitations, and receiving assistance to perform these activities. Logistic and multinomial regression models controlling for sociodemographic and health conditions were used to address the influence of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality. Results: By itself, the presence of diabetes did not increase the risk of disability or the need for assistance; however, diabetes was related to increased risks when assessed in combination with stroke. After controlling for demographic, social and health conditions, individuals who had experienced stroke but not diabetes were 3.4 times more likely to have ADL limitations than those with neither condition (95% CI 2.26-5.04). This elevated risk more than doubled for those suffering from a combination of diabetes and stroke (OR 7.34, 95% CI 3.73-14.46). Similar effects from the combination of diabetes and stroke were observed for severe ADL limitations (OR 19.75, 95% CI 9.81-39.76) and receiving ADL assistance (OR 16.57, 95% CI 8.39-32.73). Over time, older adults who had experienced a stroke were at higher risk of remaining disabled (RRR 4.28, 95% CI 1.53, 11.95) and of mortality (RRR 3.42, 95% CI 1.65, 7.09). However, risks were even higher for those who had experienced both diabetes and stroke. Diabetes was associated with higher mortality. Conclusions: Findings indicate that a combined history of stroke and diabetes has a great impact on disability prevalence and mortality among older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Establishment of the bacterial fecal community during the first month of life in Brazilian newborns

OBJECTIVE: The establishment of the intestinal microbiota in newborns is a critical period with possible long-term consequences for human health. In this research, the development of the fecal microbiota of a group of exclusively breastfed neonates living in low socio-economic conditions in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, during the first month of life, was studied. METHODS: Fecal samples were collected from ten neonates on the second, seventh, and 30th days after birth. One of the neonates underwent antibiotic therapy. Molecular techniques were used for analysis; DNA was extracted from the samples, and 16S rRNA libraries were sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed after construction. A real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed on the samples taken from the 30th day to amplify DNA from Bifidobacterium sp. RESULTS: The primary phylogenetic groups identified in the samples were Escherichia and Clostridium. Staphylococcus was identified at a low rate. Bifidobacterium sp. was detected in all of the samples collected on the 30th day. In the child who received antibiotics, a reduction in anaerobes and Escherichia, which was associated with an overgrowth of Klebsiella, was observed throughout the experimental period. CONCLUSION: The observed pattern of Escherichia predominance and reduced Staphylococcus colonization is in contrast with the patterns observed in neonates living in developed countries.

Performance of rest myocardial perfusion imaging in the management of acute chest pain in the emergency room in developing nations (PREMIER trial)

Background. Rest myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is effective in managing patients with acute chest pain in developed countries. We aimed to define the role and feasibility of rest MPI in low-to-middle income countries. Methods and Results. Low-to-intermediate risk patients (n = 356) presenting with chest pain to ten centers in eight developing countries were injected with a Tc-99m-based tracer, and standard imaging was performed. The primary outcome was a composite of death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), recurrent angina, and coronary revascularization at 30 days. Sixty-nine patients had a positive MPI (19.4%), and 52 patients (14.6%) had a primary outcome event. An abnormal rest-MPI result was the only variable which independently predicted the primary outcome [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 8.19, 95% confidence interval 4.10-16.40, P = .0001]. The association of MPI result and the primary outcome was stronger (adjusted OR 17.35) when only the patients injected during pain were considered. Rest-MPI had a negative predictive value of 92.7% for the primary outcome, improving to 99.3% for the hard event composite of death or MI. Conclusions. Our study demonstrates that rest-MPI is a reliable test for ruling out MI when applied to patients in developing countries. (J Nucl Cardiol 2012;19:1146-53.)

Immunogenicity of a meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine in HIV-infected children, adolescents, and young adults

Children and adolescents infected with HIV typically have a lower response to immunization than do those in the general population. In most developed countries, meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine is one of the recommended vaccines for such individuals. However, there have been no studies evaluating the antibody response to this vaccine in HIV-infected children, adolescents or young adults. In this study, we evaluated that response using serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, comparing HIV-infected with non-HIV-infected patients, as well as analysing the occurrence of side effects. In non-responders, we assessed the antibody response to revaccination. This clinical trial involved 92 patients between 10 and 20 years of age: 43 HIV-infected patients (HIV+ group) and 49 non-HIV-infected patients (HIV- group). After one dose of the vaccine, 72.1% of the HIV+ group patients and 100% of the HIV- group patients were considered protected. Of the HIV+ group patients who received a second dose of the vaccine, only 40% acquired protection. Overall, 81.4% of the HIV+ group patients acquired protection (after one or two doses of the vaccine). Side effects occurred in 16.3% and 44% of the HIV+ group and HIV- group patients, respectively. Therefore, the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine proved to be safe and effective for use in HIV-infected children, adolescents, and young adults, although their antibody response was weaker than that shown by non-HIV-infected patients. This indicates the need to discuss changes to the immunization schedule for children, adolescents, and young adults infected with HIV, in order to ensure more effective protection against meningococcal disease. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transplant-Associated and Blood Transfusion-Associated Tropical and Parasitic Infections

Blood transfusion and transplantation may represent efficient mechanisms of spreading infectious agents to naive populations. In the developed countries, as a consequence of globalization, several factors such as international commerce, tourism, and immigration have acted as important features for the emergence or reemergence of infectious diseases previously referred to as tropical. This article reviews the relevant bacterial, protozoan and viral infections that are more frequently associated with blood transfusion and/or solid organ or marrow transplantation and may affect susceptible populations worldwide.

Factors Associated with Height Catch-Up and Catch-Down Growth Among Schoolchildren

In developed countries, children with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) or born preterm (PT) tend to achieve catch-up growth. There is little information about height catch-up in developing countries and about height catch-down in both developed and developing countries. We studied the effect of IUGR and PT birth on height catch-up and catch-down growth of children from two cohorts of liveborn singletons. Data from 1,463 children was collected at birth and at school age in Ribeirao Preto (RP), a more developed city, and in Sao Luis (SL), a less developed city. A change in z-score between schoolchild height z-score and birth length z-score >= 0.67 was considered catch-up; a change in z-score <=-0.67 indicated catch-down growth. The explanatory variables were: appropriate weight for gestational age/PT birth in four categories: term children without IUGR (normal), IUGR only (term with IUGR), PT only ( preterm without IUGR) and preterm with IUGR; infant's sex; maternal parity, age, schooling and marital status; occupation of family head; family income and neonatal ponderal index (PI). The risk ratio for catch-up and catch-down was estimated by multinomial logistic regression for each city. In RP, preterms without IUGR (RR = 4.13) and thin children (PI<10th percentile, RR = 14.39) had a higher risk of catch-down; catch-up was higher among terms with IUGR (RR = 5.53), preterms with IUGR (RR = 5.36) and children born to primiparous mothers (RR = 1.83). In SL, catch-down was higher among preterms without IUGR (RR = 5.19), girls (RR = 1.52) and children from low-income families ( RR = 2.74); the lowest risk of catch-down (RR = 0.27) and the highest risk of catch-up (RR = 3.77) were observed among terms with IUGR. In both cities, terms with IUGR presented height catch-up growth whereas preterms with IUGR only had height catch-up growth in the more affluent setting. Preterms without IUGR presented height catch-down growth, suggesting that a better socioeconomic situation facilitates height catch-up and prevents height catch-down growth.

Opportunistic and Other Infections in HIV-Infected Children in Latin America Compared to a Similar Cohort in the United States

Opportunistic and other infections have declined since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in developed countries but few studies have addressed the impact of HAART in HIV-infected children from developing countries. This study examines the prevalence and incidence of opportunistic and other infections in Latin America during the HAART era. Vertically HIV-infected children enrolled in a cohort study between 2002 and 2007 were followed for the occurrence of 29 targeted infections. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were performed to calculate the prevalence of infections before enrollment and the incidence rates of opportunistic and other infections after enrollment. Comparisons were made with data from a U. S. cohort (PACTG 219C). Of the 731 vertically HIV-infected children 568 (78%) had at least one opportunistic or other infection prior to enrollment. The most prevalent infections were bacterial pneumonia, oral candidiasis, varicella, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia. After enrollment, the overall incidence was 23.5 per 100 person-years; the most common infections (per 100 person-years) were bacterial pneumonia (7.8), varicella (3.0), dermatophyte infections (2.9), herpes simplex (2.5), and herpes zoster (1.8). All of these incidence rates were higher than those reported in PACTG 219C. The types and relative distribution of infections among HIV-infected children in Latin America in this study are similar to those seen in the United States but the incidence rates are higher. Further research is necessary to determine the reasons for these higher rates.

Plant invasions research in Latin America: fast track to a more focused agenda

While many developed countries have invested heavily in research on plant invasions over the last 50 years, the immense region of Latin America has made little progress. Recognising this, a group of scientists working on plant invasions in Latin America met in Chile in late 2010 to develop a research agenda for the region based on lessons learned elsewhere. Our three main findings are as follows. (1) Globalisation is inevitable, but the resultant plant introductions can be slowed or prevented by effective quarantine and early intervention. Development of spatially explicit inventories, research on the invasion process and weed risk assessments can help prioritise and streamline action. (2) Eradication has limited application for plants and control is expensive and requires strict prioritisation and careful planning and evaluation. (3) Accepting the concept of novel ecosystems, new combinations of native and introduced species that no longer depend on human intervention, may help optimise invasive species management. Our vision of novel ecosystem management is through actions that: (a) maintain as much native biodiversity and ecosystem functionality as possible, (b) minimise management intervention to invasives with known impact, and (c) maximise the area of intervention. We propose the creation of a Latin American Invasive Plants Network to help focus the new research agenda for member countries. The network would coordinate research and training and establish funding priorities, develop and strengthen tools to share knowledge, and raise awareness at the community, governmental and intergovernmental levels about the social, economic and environmental costs of plant invasions.

Molecular and serological characterization of Leptospira interrogans serovar Canicola isolated from dogs, swine, and bovine in Brazil

The identification of Leptospira clinical isolates through genotyping and serotyping, besides the recognition of its reservoirs, are important tools for understanding the epidemiology of leptospirosis, and they are also keys for identifying new species and serovars. Fourteen clinical isolates from animals were characterized by means of single enzyme amplified length polymorphism, variable number of tandem repeat analysis, pulsed field gel electrophoresis, and serotyping. All isolates were identified as Leptospira interrogans, serovar Canicola. Infections by this serovar occur in urban regions, where dogs represent the main maintenance hosts, whereas bovine and swine may act as reservoirs of serovar Canicola in rural areas. Both urban and rural aspects of leptospirosis, and the role of domestic animals as maintenance hosts, cannot be neglected in developing and developed countries.

Interstrain differences in the severity of liver injury induced by a choline- and folate-deficient diet in mice are associated with dysregulation of genes involved in lipid metabolism

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major health problem and a leading cause of chronic liver disease in the United States and developed countries. In humans, genetic factors greatly influence individual susceptibility to NAFLD. The goals of this study were to compare the magnitude of interindividual differences in the severity of liver injury induced by methyl-donor deficiency among individual inbred strains of mice and to investigate the underlying mechanisms associated with the variability. Feeding mice a choline-and folate-deficient diet for 12 wk caused liver injury similar to NAFLD. The magnitude of liver injury varied among the strains, with the order of sensitivity being A/J approximate to C57BL/6J approximate to C3H/HeJ < 129S1/SvImJ approximate to CAST/EiJ < PWK/PhJ < WSB/EiJ. The interstrain variability in severity of NAFLD liver damage was associated with dysregulation of genes involved in lipid metabolism, primarily with a down-regulation of the peroxisome proliferator receptor alpha (PPAR alpha)-regulated lipid catabolic pathway genes. Markers of oxidative stress and oxidative stress-induced DNA damage were also elevated in the livers but were not correlated with severity of liver damage. These findings suggest that the PPAR alpha-regulated metabolism network is one of the key mechanisms determining interstrain susceptibility and severity of NAFLD in mice.-Tryndyak, V., de Conti, A., Kobets, T., Kutanzi, K., Koturbash, I., Han, T., Fuscoe, J. C., Latendresse, J. R., Melnyk, S., Shymonyak, S., Collins, L., Ross, S. A., Rusyn, I., Beland, F. A., Pogribny, I. P. Interstrain differences in the severity of liver injury induced by a choline-and folate-deficient diet in mice are associated with dysregulation of genes involved in lipid metabolism. FASEB J. 26, 4592-4602 (2012). www.fasebj.org

Prevalence and risk factors of Hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil, 2005 through 2009: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Hepatitis C chronic liver disease is a major cause of liver transplant in developed countries. This article reports the first nationwide population-based survey conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of HCV antibodies and associated risk factors in the urban population of Brazil. Methods The cross sectional study was conducted in all Brazilian macro-regions from 2005 to 2009, as a stratified multistage cluster sample of 19,503 inhabitants aged between 10 and 69 years, representing individuals living in all 26 State capitals and the Federal District. Hepatitis C antibodies were detected by a third-generation enzyme immunoassay. Seropositive individuals were retested by Polymerase Chain Reaction and genotyped. Adjusted prevalence was estimated by macro-regions. Potential risk factors associated with HCV infection were assessed by calculating the crude and adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p values. Population attributable risk was estimated for multiple factors using a case–control approach. Results The overall weighted prevalence of hepatitis C antibodies was 1.38% (95% CI: 1.12%–1.64%). Prevalence of infection increased in older groups but was similar for both sexes. The multivariate model showed the following to be predictors of HCV infection: age, injected drug use (OR = 6.65), sniffed drug use (OR = 2.59), hospitalization (OR = 1.90), groups socially deprived by the lack of sewage disposal (OR = 2.53), and injection with glass syringe (OR = 1.52, with a borderline p value). The genotypes 1 (subtypes 1a, 1b), 2b and 3a were identified. The estimated population attributable risk for the ensemble of risk factors was 40%. Approximately 1.3 million individuals would be expected to be anti-HCV-positive in the country. Conclusions The large estimated absolute numbers of infected individuals reveals the burden of the disease in the near future, giving rise to costs for the health care system and society at large. The known risk factors explain less than 50% of the infected cases, limiting the prevention strategies. Our findings regarding risk behaviors associated with HCV infection showed that there is still room for improving strategies for reducing transmission among drug users and nosocomial infection, as well as a need for specific prevention and control strategies targeting individuals living in poverty.

Infective endocarditis with left to right intracardiac fistula due to Streptococcus anginosus - a rare complication caused by an even rarer bacterium

Although infective endocarditis (IE) has been described in reports dating from the Renaissance, the diagnosis still challenges and the outcome often surprises. In the course of time, diagnostic criteria have been updated and validated to reduce misdiagnosis. Some risk factors and epidemiology have shown dynamic changes since degenerative valvular disease became more predominant in developed countries, and the mean age of the affected population increased. Despite streptococci have been being well known as etiologic agents, some groups, although rare, have been increasingly reported (e.g., Streptococcus milleri.) Intracardiac complications of IE are common and have a worse prognosis, frequently requiring surgical treatment. We report a case of a middle-aged diabetic man who presented with prolonged fever, weight loss, and ultimately severe dyspnea. IE was diagnosed based on a new valvular regurgitation murmur, a positive blood culture for Streptococcus anginosus, an echocardiographic finding of an aortic valve vegetation, fever, and pulmonary thromboembolism. Despite an appropriate antibiotic regimen, the patient died. Autopsy findings showed vegetation attached to a bicuspid aortic valve with an associated septal abscess and left ventricle and aortic root fistula connecting with the pulmonary artery. A large thrombus was adherent to the pulmonary artery trunk and a pulmonary septic thromboemboli were also identified.