A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

The geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

In this paper, we propose a cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Geometric distribution and the time to event follow a Birnbaum Saunders distribution. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a Geometric Birnbaum Saunders model with cure rate. Finally, to analyze a data set from the medical area. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of curing protocol and storage time on the micro-hardness of resin cements used to lute fiber-reinforced resin posts

Objectives: To determine the micro-hardness profile of two dual cure resin cements (RelyX - U100 (R), 3M-ESPE and Panavia F 2.0 (R), Kuraray) used for cementing fiber-reinforced resin posts (Fibrekor (R) - Jeneric Pentron) under three different curing protocols and two water storage times. Material and methods: Sixty 16mm long bovine incisor roots were endodontically treated and prepared for cementation of the Fibrekor posts. The cements were mixed as instructed, dispensed in the canal, the posts were seated and the curing performed as follows: a) no light activation; b) light-activation immediately after seating the post, and; c) light-activation delayed 5 minutes after seating the post. The teeth were stored in water and retrieved for analysis after 7 days and 3 months. The roots were longitudinally sectioned and the microhardness was determined at the cervical, middle and apical regions along the cement line. The data was analyzed by the three-way ANOVA test (curing mode, storage time and thirds) for each cement. The Tukey test was used for the post-hoc analysis. Results: Light-activation resulted in a significant increase in the microhardness. This was more evident for the cervical region and for the Panavia cement. Storage in water for 3 months caused a reduction of the micro-hardness for both cements. The U100 cement showed less variation in the micro-hardness regardless of the curing protocol and storage time. Conclusions: The micro-hardness of the cements was affected by the curing and storage variables and were material-dependent.

Effect of Temperature on the Degree of Conversion and Working Time of Dual-Cured Resin Cements Exposed to Different Curing Conditions

Objectives: This study evaluated the degree of conversion (DC) and working time (WT) of two commercial, dual-cured resin cements polymerized at varying temperatures and under different curing-light accessible conditions, using Fourier transformed infrared analysis (FTIR). Materials and Methods: Calibra (Cal; Dentsply Caulk) and Variolink II (Ivoclar Vivadent) were tested at 25 degrees C or preheated to 37 degrees C or 50 degrees C and applied to a similar-temperature surface of a horizontal attenuated-total-reflectance unit (ATR) attached to an infrared spectrometer. The products were polymerized using one of four conditions: direct light exposure only (600 mW/cm(2)) through a glass slide or through a 1.5- or 3.0-mm-thick ceramic disc (A2 shade, IPS e.max, Ivoclar Vivadent) or allowed to self-cure in the absence of light curing. FTIR spectra were recorded for 20 min (1 spectrum/s, 16 scans/spectrum, resolution 4 cm(-1)) immediately after application to the ATR. DC was calculated using standard techniques of observing changes in aliphatic-to-aromatic peak ratios precuring and 20-min postcuring as well as during each 1-second interval. Time-based monomer conversion analysis was used to determine WT at each temperature. DC and WT data (n=6) were analyzed by two-way analysis of variance and Tukey post hoc test (p=0.05). Results: Higher temperatures increased DC regardless of curing mode and product. For Calibra, only the 3-mm-thick ceramic group showed lower DC than the other groups at 25 degrees C (p=0.01830), while no significant difference was observed among groups at 37 degrees C and 50 degrees C. For Variolink, the 3-mm-thick ceramic group showed lower DC than the 1-mm-thick group only at 25 degrees C, while the self-cure group showed lower DC than the others at all temperatures (p=0.00001). WT decreased with increasing temperature: at 37 degrees C near 70% reduction and at 50 degrees C near 90% for both products, with WT reduction reaching clinically inappropriate times in some cases (p=0.00001). Conclusion: Elevated temperature during polymerization of dual-cured cements increased DC. WT was reduced with elevated temperature, but the extent of reduction might not be clinically acceptable.

The negative binomial-beta Weibull regression model to predict the cure of prostate cancer

In this article, for the first time, we propose the negative binomial-beta Weibull (BW) regression model for studying the recurrence of prostate cancer and to predict the cure fraction for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated by open radical prostatectomy. The cure model considers that a fraction of the survivors are cured of the disease. The survival function for the population of patients can be modeled by a cure parametric model using the BW distribution. We derive an explicit expansion for the moments of the recurrence time distribution for the uncured individuals. The proposed distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, unimodal and bathtub shaped. Another advantage is that the proposed model includes as special sub-models some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We analyze a real data set for localized prostate cancer patients after open radical prostatectomy.

Congenital Chagas disease: time to screen pregnant women?

The congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi has gained epidemiological importance because it is partially responsible for the spread of Chagas disease worldwide. The feasibility of a cure when infected children are treated early makes the detection of congenital infection a valuable goal toward the control of the disease. Here, the authors review and discuss the findings of Bua et al., who quantified the parasitemia of infected women and their newborns by quantitative PCR. The authors demonstrate that the maternal parasite burden is directly related to the risk of neonatal infection. This study points out the importance of a quantitative screen for T. cruzi in pregnant women who live in, or have traveled to, endemic areas for improving the diagnosis of infected newborns and providing prompt treatment.

A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.