20 resultados para Crop yield forecasting
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo
Resumo:
Despite the great importance of soybeans in Brazil, there have been few applications of soybean crop modeling on Brazilian conditions. Thus, the objective of this study was to use modified crop models to estimate the depleted and potential soybean crop yield in Brazil. The climatic variable data used in the modified simulation of the soybean crop models were temperature, insolation and rainfall. The data set was taken from 33 counties (28 Sao Paulo state counties, and 5 counties from other states that neighbor São Paulo). Among the models, modifications in the estimation of the leaf area of the soybean crop, which includes corrections for the temperature, shading, senescence, CO2, and biomass partition were proposed; also, the methods of input for the model's simulation of the climatic variables were reconsidered. The depleted yields were estimated through a water balance, from which the depletion coefficient was estimated. It can be concluded that the adaptation soybean growth crop model might be used to predict the results of the depleted and potential yield of soybeans, and it can also be used to indicate better locations and periods of tillage.
Resumo:
The objective of this work was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency and yield gap in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, throughout 16 growing seasons, considering climate and soil as main effects, and socioeconomic factors as complementary. An empirical model was used to assess potential and attainable yields, using climate data series from 37 weather stations. Soil effects were analyzed using the concept of production environments associated with a soil aptitude map for sugarcane. Crop yield efficiency increased from 0.42 to 0.58 in the analyzed period (1990/1991 to 2005/2006 crop seasons), and yield gap consequently decreased from 58 to 42%. Climatic factors explained 43% of the variability of sugarcane yield efficiency, in the following order of importance: solar radiation, water deficit, maximum air temperature, precipitation, and minimum air temperature. Soil explained 15% of the variability, considering the average of all seasons. There was a change in the correlation pattern of climate and soil with yield efficiency after the 2001/2002 season, probably due to the crop expansion to the west of the state during the subsequent period. Socioeconomic, biotic and crop management factors together explain 42% of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of Sao Paulo.
Resumo:
This study evaluated the yield, components of production and oil content of two castor bean cultivars through drip irrigation with different water depths. The research was conducted in 2009 in an Oxisol clay in the experimental field in Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul State. The experimental design was randomized blocks in factorial scheme with five water depths (0, 25, 50, 100 and 150% of evapotranspiration for drip irrigation) in two castor bean cultivars (IAC 2028 and IAC 80) with four replications. The irrigation schedule was predetermined up to two irrigations per week except on rainy days. The increase of irrigation provided significant increase in most components of production and crop yield without changing the oil content of seeds. The application of higher water depth increased yield by 80% in relation to the treatment that received no supplemental irrigation.
Resumo:
The objective of this work was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of sugarcane yield efficiency and yield gap in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, throughout 16 growing seasons, considering climate and soil as main effects, and socioeconomic factors as complementary. An empirical model was used to assess potential and attainable yields, using climate data series from 37 weather stations. Soil effects were analyzed using the concept of production environments associated with a soil aptitude map for sugarcane. Crop yield efficiency increased from 0.42 to 0.58 in the analyzed period (1990/1991 to 2005/2006 crop seasons), and yield gap consequently decreased from 58 to 42%. Climatic factors explained 43% of the variability of sugarcane yield efficiency, in the following order of importance: solar radiation, water deficit, maximum air temperature, precipitation, and minimum air temperature. Soil explained 15% of the variability, considering the average of all seasons. There was a change in the correlation pattern of climate and soil with yield efficiency after the 2001/2002 season, probably due to the crop expansion to the west of the state during the subsequent period. Socioeconomic, biotic and crop management factors together explain 42% of sugarcane yield efficiency in the state of São Paulo.
Resumo:
Background: The genus Colletotrichum is one of the most economically important plant pathogens, causing anthracnose on a wide range of crops including common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Crop yield can be dramatically decreased depending on the plant cultivar used and the environmental conditions. This study aimed to identify potential genetic components of the bean immune system to provide environmentally friendly control measures against this fungus. Methodology and Principal Findings: As the common bean is not amenable to reverse genetics to explore functionality and its genome is not fully curated, we used putative Arabidopsis orthologs of bean expressed sequence tag (EST) to perform bioinformatic analysis and experimental validation of gene expression to identify common bean genes regulated during the incompatible interaction with C. lindemuthianum. Similar to model pathosystems, Gene Ontology (GO) analysis indicated that hormone biosynthesis and signaling in common beans seem to be modulated by fungus infection. For instance, cytokinin and ethylene responses were up-regulated and jasmonic acid, gibberellin, and abscisic acid responses were down-regulated, indicating that these hormones may play a central role in this pathosystem. Importantly, we have identified putative bean gene orthologs of Arabidopsis genes involved in the plant immune system. Based on experimental validation of gene expression, we propose that hypersensitive reaction as part of effector-triggered immunity may operate, at least in part, by down-regulating genes, such as FLS2-like and MKK5-like, putative orthologs of the Arabidopsis genes involved in pathogen perception and downstream signaling. Conclusions/Significance: We have identified specific bean genes and uncovered metabolic processes and pathways that may be involved in the immune response against pathogens. Our transcriptome database is a rich resource for mining novel defense-related genes, which enabled us to develop a model of the molecular components of the bean innate immune system regulated upon pathogen attack.
Resumo:
To boost crop yield, sugarcane growers are using increasing amounts of pesticides to combat insects and weeds. But residues of these compounds can pollute water resources, such as lakes, rivers and aquifers. The present paper reports the results of a study of water samples from the Feijao River, which is the source of drinking water for the city of Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The samples were evaluated for the presence of four leading pesticides - ametryn, atrazine, diuron and fipronil - used on sugarcane, the dominant culture in the region. The samples were obtained from three points along the river: the headwaters, along the middle course of the river and just before the municipal water intake station. The pesticides were extracted from the water samples by solid-phase extraction (SPE) and then analyzed by liquid chromatography with diode array detection (LC-DAD). The analytical method was validated by traditional methods, obtaining recovery values between 90 and 95%, with precision deviations inferior to 2.56%, correlation coefficients above 0.99 and detection and quantification limits varying from 0.02 to 0.05 mg L-1 and 0.07 to 0.17 mg L-1, respectively. No presence of residues of the pesticides was detected in the samples, considering the detection limits of the method employed.
Resumo:
Scientists predict that global agricultural lands will expand over the next few decades due to increasing demands for food production and an exponential increase in crop-based biofuel production. These changes in land use will greatly impact biogeochemical and biogeophysical cycles across the globe. It is therefore important to develop models that can accurately simulate the interactions between the atmosphere and important crops. In this study, we develop and validate a new process-based sugarcane model (included as a module within the Agro-IBIS dynamic agro-ecosystem model) which can be applied at multiple spatial scales. At site level, the model systematically under/overestimated the daily sensible/latent heat flux (by -10.5% and 14.8%, H and E, respectively) when compared against the micrometeorological observations from southeast Brazil. The model underestimated ET (relative bias between -10.1% and 12.5%) when compared against an agro-meteorological field experiment from northeast Australia. At the regional level, the model accurately simulated average yield for the four largest mesoregions (clusters of municipalities) in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, over a period of 16 years, with a yield relative bias of -0.68% to 1.08%. Finally, the simulated annual average sugarcane yield over 31 years for the state of Louisiana (US) had a low relative bias (-2.67%), but exhibited a lower interannual variability than the observed yields.
Resumo:
Eficiência agrícola (EA) é utilizada como indicador do nível de desenvolvimento agrícola regional, expressando, por meio da relação entre as produtividades real e atingível, o nível tecnológico empregado nas culturas. Com base nisso, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a EA das culturas da soja, do milho e do trigo para o estado do Rio Grande do Sul, entre os anos de 1980 e 2008, identificando os principais fatores que as condicionaram. A EA foi obtida pela relação entre a produtividade atingível (PA) e a real (PR). A PR foi obtida junto ao banco de dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). A PA foi obtida pela estimativa da produtividade potencial (PPf), pelo método de Zona Agroecológica da FAO, deflacionada pelo déficit hídrico em cada uma das fases da cultura. Verificou-se que as EAs médias para as culturas do milho, da soja e do trigo para o RS foram iguais a 54, 61 e 43%, respectivamente. Nas localidades de Santa Rosa, São Borja e Veranópolis, a EA para a soja foi, ao contrário das demais localidades, negativa. Os principais fatores que contribuíram para o aumento da EA, na maioria das localidades, foram: mudanças no uso e fertilidade do solo; uso de mecanização agrícola; preços pagos pelas commodities; investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento; adoção do zoneamento de risco climático; e melhoramento genético.
Resumo:
Aquaculture of filter-feeding bivalve mollusks involves the fruitful conversion of marine particulate organic matter into premium protein of high nutritive value. Culture performance of bivalves is largely dependent on hydrological conditions and directly affected by e. g. temperature and chlorophyll levels. Accordingly, these parameters may be related with seasonality but also with oceanographic features combined with climate events. Yields of Pacific cupped oyster (Crassostrea gigas) reared at commercial procedures in suspended structures (long-lines) in a sheltered bay in Southern Brazil (Santa Catarina State, 27S 43'; 48 W 30') were evaluated in relation to local environmental conditions: sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and associate effects of cold fronts events and El Nino and La Nina periods. Outputs from four consecutive commercial crop years were analyzed (2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09) in terms of oyster survival and development time during the following grow-out phases of the culture cycle: seed to juvenile, juvenile to adult, adult to marketable. Since culture management and genetics were standardized significant differences verified among crop performance could be mostly related to environmental effects. Time series of temperature and chlorophyll a (remote sensing data) from crop periods displayed significant seasonal and interannual variation. As expected, performance during initial grow-out stages (seed to juvenile) was critical for final crop yield. Temperature was the main factor affecting survival in these initial stages with a trend of negative correlation, though not statistically significant. On the other hand, oyster development rate was significantly and positively affected by chlorophyll a concentration. Chlorophyll a values could be increased by upwelled cold nutrient-rich South Atlantic Central Water (SACW, related to predominant Northern winds) though further dependent on occurrence of Southern winds (cold fronts) to assist seawater penetration into the sheltered farming area. Lower salinity nutrient-rich northward drifted waters from La Plata River discharge may also result in chlorophyll a rise in the farming area. The El Nino period (July 2006 to February 2007) coincided with lower chlorophyll a levels in the farming site that may be related to both decreased number of cold fronts as well as predominance of Northern winds that retain northward spreading of La Plata River discharge waters. In contrast, the La Nina period (August 2007 to June 2008) corresponded to higher chlorophyll a values in the farming area by both upwelling of SACW and penetration of La Plata River discharge water assisted by increased occurrence of Southern winds and cold fronts. The recognition of the potentially changing climate and effects upon the environment will be an important step in planning future development of bivalve aquaculture.
Resumo:
Altas produtividades de soja requerem grandes quantidades de nitrogênio, que podem ser obtidas principalmente, a partir da fixação simbiótica. No entanto, há possibilidade da eficiência desse processo biológico ser prejudicada pela deficiência de micronutrientes, especialmente de cobalto e molibdênio. Nesse contexto, objetivou-se com o presente trabalho avaliar a eficiência agronômica e a forma de aplicação de adubação mineral com cobalto e molibdênio na cultura da soja. Para tanto, a cultivar CD-206 foi submetida a diferentes tratamentos que consistiram da combinação entre aplicação de Co e Mo via tratamento de sementes e adubação foliar. As características agronômicas avaliadas foram o número de nódulos, massa seca da parte aérea, massa seca de raiz, número de vagens, número de grãos, massa de mil grãos e produção de grãos. A aplicação de molibdênio e cobalto via sementes e/ ou adubação foliar no estádio V4 (terceira folha trifoliolada completamente desenvolvida, quarto nó) promoveram incrementos significativos no rendimento da cultura. Respostas positivas ao cobalto e molibdênio também foram observadas no número de nódulos, vagens e grãos, com aumentos de até 240 kg ha-1 no rendimento da cultura. Os parâmetros agronômicos avaliados foram afetados positivamente pela aplicação de Co e Mo, principalmente quanto aplicado tanto via semente como foliar (TS + V4), inclusive para a produtividade de grãos. A forma de aplicação não foi significativamente distinta, ou seja, tanto a aplicação via semente como via foliar foram eficientes no fornecimento destes nutrientes para a cultura da soja.
Resumo:
Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC) is currently present in approximately 40% of citrus plants in Brazil and causes an annual loss of around 120 million US dollars to the Brazilian citrus industry. Despite the fact that CVC has been present in Brazil for over 20 years, a relationship between disease intensity and yield loss has not been established. In order to achieve this, an experiment was carried out in a randomized block design in a 3 x 2 factorial scheme with 10-year-old Natal sweet orange. The following treatments were applied: irrigation with 0, 50 or 100% of the evapotranspiration of the crop, combined with natural infection or artificial inoculation with Xylella fastidiosa, the causal agent of CVC. The experiment was evaluated during three seasons. A negative exponential model was fitted to the relationships between yield versus CVC severity and yield versus Area Under Disease Progress Curve (AUDPC). In addition, the relationship between yield versus CVC severity and canopy volume was fitted by a multivariate exponential model. The use of the AUDPC variable showed practical limitations when compared with the variable CVC severity. The parameter values in the relationship of yieldCVC severity were similar for all treatments unlike in the multivariate model. Consequently, the yieldCVC intensity relationship (with 432 data points) could be described by one single model: y = 114.07 exp(-0.017 x), where y is yield (symptomless fruit weight in kg) and x is disease severity (R2 = 0.45; P < 0.01).
Resumo:
The identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) and marker-assisted selection with a view to breeding programs have aroused great interest, including for cashew improvement. This study identified QTL for yield-related traits: nut weight, male and hermaphrodite flowers. The traits were evaluated in 71 F-1 genotypes of the cross CCP 1001 x CP 96. The methods of interval mapping and multiple QTL mapping were applied to identify QTL. Eleven QTL were detected: three for nut weight, four for male flowers and four for hermaphrodite flowers. The QTL accounted for 3.79 to 12.98 % of the total phenotypic variance and had phenotypic effects of -31.81 to 34.25 %. The potential for marker-assisted selection of the QTL hf-2f and hf-3m is great and the phenotypic effects and percentage of phenotypic variation higher than of the others.
Resumo:
Sewage sludge has been used to fertilize coffee, increasing the risk of metal contamination in this crop. The aim of this work was to study the effects of Cd, Zn and Ni in adult coffee plants growing under field conditions. Seven-year-old coffee plants growing in the field received one of three;loses of Cd, Zn or Ni: 15,45 and 90 g Cd plant(-1); 35, 105 and 210 g Ni plant(-1); and 100, 300 and 600 g Zn plant(-1), with all three metals in the form of sulphate salts. After three months, we noticed good penetration of the three metals into the soil, especially in the first 50 cm, which is the region where most coffee plant roots are concentrated. Leaf concentrations of K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cu, Fe and Mn were nor affected. N levels did not change with the application of Ni or Zn but were reduced with either 45 or 90 g Cd plant(-1). Foliar P concentrations decreased with the addition of 45 and 90 g Cd plant(-1) and 600 g Zn plant(-1). Zn levels in leaves were not affected by the application of Cd or Ni. The highest concentrations. of Zn were found in branches (30-230 mg kg(-1)), leaves (7-35 mg kg(-1)) and beam (4-6.5 mg kg(-1)); Ni was found in leaves (4-45 mg kg(-1)), branches (3-18 mg kg(-1)) and beans (1-5 mg kg(-1)); and Cd was found in branches (0-6.2 mg kg(-1)) and beans (0-1.5 mg kg(-1)) but was absent in leaves. The mean yield of two harvests was not affected by Ni, but it decreased at the highest dose of Zn (600 g plant(-1)) and the two higher doses of Cd (45 and 90 g plant(-1)). Plants died when treated with the highest dose of Cd and showed symptoms of toxicity with the highest dose of Zn. Nevertheless, based on the amounts of metal used and the results obtained, we conclude that coffee plants are highly tolerant to the three metals tested. Moreover, even at high doses, there was very little transport to the beans, which is the part consumed by humans. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Nitrogen management has been intensively studied on several crops and recently associated with variable rate on-the-go application based on crop sensors. Such studies are scarce for sugarcane and as a biofuel crop the energy input matters, seeking high positive energy balance production and low carbon emission on the whole production system. This article presents the procedure and shows the first results obtained using a nitrogen and biomass sensor (N-Sensor (TM) ALS, Yara International ASA) to indicate the nitrogen application demands of commercial sugarcane fields. Eight commercial fields from one sugar mill in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, varying from 15 to 25 ha in size, were monitored. Conditions varied from sandy to heavy soils and the previous harvesting occurred in May and October 2009, including first, second, and third ratoon stages. Each field was scanned with the sensor three times during the season (at 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6 m stem height), followed by tissue sampling for biomass and nitrogen uptake at ten spots inside the area, guided by the different values shown by the sensor. The results showed a high correlation between sensor values and sugarcane biomass and nitrogen uptake, thereby supporting the potential use of this technology to develop algorithms to manage variable rate application of nitrogen for sugarcane.
Resumo:
Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.