Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Food-Retail Development and the Myth of Everyday Low Prices: The Case of Brazil

This article analyses the changes in Brazilian food retailing by investigating the co-existence of, and the pricing variation across, large supermarket chains and small independent supermarkets. It uses cointegration tests to show that, despite the widespread belief that small supermarkets are inefficient and charge higher prices, they in fact charge lower prices. Accordingly, in contrast to the prevailing literature on food-retail development, competition in food retail is complex and cannot be described as a simple Darwinian process of market concentration. The article explores the survival of small retail and its consequences for the current discussion on modern food retail in developing countries.

Análise de concorrência no mercado mundial de café verde

A literatura argumenta que o Brasil, embora ainda seja o maior exportador mundial de café verde, tem perdido poder neste mercado, pois a concorrência (rivalidade e probabilidade de entrada) imposta por países como a Colômbia e o Vietnã é forte o suficiente para tornar este mercado bastante competitivo. Assim, este artigo avalia o padrão recente de concorrência do mercado mundial de café verde utilizando uma metodologia econométrica mais usualmente empregada em análise antitruste. Para avaliar o comportamento dos consumidores, foram estimadas as elasticidades-preço da demanda mundial de café verde, por tipo de café, usando o modelo de demanda Logit Multinomial Antitruste. Para avaliar o comportamento de equilíbrio de mercado foram realizados testes de instabilidade de share de quantidade por meio de análise de cointegração em painel. Os resultados apontam para aumento da concorrência à variedade de café brasileiro por parte da demanda e manutenção de sharede quantidades como configuração de equilíbrio de mercado.