A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

The geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

In this paper, we propose a cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Geometric distribution and the time to event follow a Birnbaum Saunders distribution. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a Geometric Birnbaum Saunders model with cure rate. Finally, to analyze a data set from the medical area. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The negative binomial-beta Weibull regression model to predict the cure of prostate cancer

In this article, for the first time, we propose the negative binomial-beta Weibull (BW) regression model for studying the recurrence of prostate cancer and to predict the cure fraction for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated by open radical prostatectomy. The cure model considers that a fraction of the survivors are cured of the disease. The survival function for the population of patients can be modeled by a cure parametric model using the BW distribution. We derive an explicit expansion for the moments of the recurrence time distribution for the uncured individuals. The proposed distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, unimodal and bathtub shaped. Another advantage is that the proposed model includes as special sub-models some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We analyze a real data set for localized prostate cancer patients after open radical prostatectomy.

THE LOG-BURR XII REGRESSION MODEL FOR GROUPED SURVIVAL DATA

The log-Burr XII regression model for grouped survival data is evaluated in the presence of many ties. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, where the times are grouped in k intervals, and we fit discrete lifetime regression models to the data. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed model, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, so-called global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to these measures, the total local influence and influential estimates are also used. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the proposed model for grouped survival. A real data set is analyzed using a regression model for grouped data.

A log-linear regression model for the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with censored data

The beta-Birnbaum-Saunders (Cordeiro and Lemonte, 2011) and Birnbaum-Saunders (Birnbaum and Saunders, 1969a) distributions have been used quite effectively to model failure times for materials subject to fatigue and lifetime data. We define the log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution by the logarithm of the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Explicit expressions for its generating function and moments are derived. We propose a new log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model that can be applied to censored data and be used more effectively in survival analysis. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters for censored data and investigate influence diagnostics. The new location-scale regression model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be presented in the data. Its usefulness is illustrated by means of two real data sets. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.

Anti-Atherogenic Effects of a Phenol-Rich Fraction from Brazilian Red Wine (Vitis labrusca L.) in Hypercholesterolemic Low-Density Lipoprotein Receptor Knockout Mice

Moderate wine intake (i.e., 1-2 glasses of wine a day) is associated with a reduced risk of morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-atherosclerotic effects of a nonalcoholic ethyl acetate fraction (EAF) from a South Brazilian red wine obtained from Vitis labrusca grapes. Experiments were carried out on low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor knockout (LDLr-/-) mice, which were subjected to a hypercholesterolemic diet and treated with doses of EAF (3, 10, and 30 mg/kg) for 12 weeks. At the end of the treatment, the level of plasma lipids, the vascular reactivity, and the atherosclerotic lesions were evaluated. Our results demonstrated that the treatment with EAF at 3 mg/kg significantly decreased total cholesterol, triglycerides, and LDL plus very low-density lipoprotein levels compared with control hypercholesterolemic mice. The treatment of mice with EAF at 3 mg/kg also preserved the vasodilatation induced by acetylcholine on isolated thoracic aorta from hypercholesterolemic LDLr-/- mice. This result is in agreement with the degree of lipid deposit on arteries. Taken together, the results show for the first time that the lowest concentration of an EAF obtained from a red wine produced in southern Brazil significantly reduced the progression of atherosclerosis in mice.

A Bayesian analysis of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson cure rate model

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.

Thyroid hormones are involved in 5 '-nucleotidase modulation in soluble fraction of cardiac tissue

Aims: To investigate the role of TH (thyroid hormones) in 5'-nucleotidase activity and expression in cardiac soluble fraction (SF). Main methods: Male Wistar rats received daily injections of 14 (10, 25 or 50 mu g T4/100 g body weight) for 14 days to develop a hyperthyroidism condition. Thyroidectomy was performed in other animals to mimic hypothyroidism, and 14 days after surgery they were submitted to TH replacement therapy. Key findings: T4 reduced the 5'-nucleotidase activity (T4-25. P<0.05 and 14-50, P<0.01) in the SF. Conversely, hypothyroidism significantly increased the 5'-nucleotidase activity in this fraction (P<0.001) and TH replacement therapy reversed the latter result (P<0.001 compared to hypothyroid group). The analysis of protein expression in the SF showed that 5'-nucleotidase was more expressed in hypothyroid than in the control group and that the phosphorylated state of PKC observed in this condition may contribute to a possible mechanism of 5'-nucleotidase modulation by thyroid status. Significance: Taken together, these data reveal that TH can influence adenosine production by modulating 5'-nucleotidase activity and expression, which may contribute to the cardioprotective effect and the maintenance of cardiac function under TH privation. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Endothelium-Dependent Vasorelaxant Effect of Butanolic Fraction from Caryocar brasiliense Camb. Leaves in Rat Thoracic Aorta

Caryocar brasiliense Camb. "pequi" is a native plant from the Cerrado region of Brazil that contains bioactive components reported to be antioxidant agents. Previous work has demonstrated that dietary supplementation with pequi decreased the arterial pressure of volunteer athletes. We found that the crude hydroalcoholic extract (CHE) of C. brasiliense leaves relaxed, in a concentration-dependent manner, rat aortic rings precontracted with phenylephrine, and that the butanolic fraction (BF) produced an effect similar to that of the CHE. Aortic relaxation induced by BF was abolished by endothelium removal, by incubation of the nitric oxide synthase inhibitor L-NAME, or the soluble guanylatecyclase inhibitor ODQ. However, incubation with atropine and pyrilamine had no effect on the BF-induced vasorelaxation. Moreover, this effect was not inhibited by indomethacin and tetraethylammonium. The concentration-response curve to calcium in denuded-endothelium rings was not modified after incubation with BF, and the vasorelaxation by BF in endothelium-intact rings precontracted with KCl was abolished after incubation with L-NAME. In addition, administration of BF in anesthetized rats resulted in a reversible hypotension. The results reveal that C. brasiliense possesses both in vivo and in vitro activities and that the vascular effect of BF involves stimulation of the nitric oxide/cyclic GMP pathway.

The polysaccharide fraction of Propionibacterium acnes modulates the development of experimental focal segmental glomerulosclerosis

The pathogenesis of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) appears to be associated with type-2 cytokines and podocyte dysfunction. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that immunization with the polysaccharide fraction of Propionibacterium acnes (PS), a pro-Th1 agonist, may subvert the type-2 profile and protect podocytes from adriamycin-induced glomerulosclerosis. Adriamycin injection resulted in albuminuria and increased serum creatinine in association with loss of glomerular podocin and podoplanin expression, which is consistent with podocyte dysfunction. Renal tissue analysis revealed the expression of transcripts for GATA3 and fibrogenic-related proteins, such as TGF-beta, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) and metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9). In association with the expression of fibrogenic transcripts, we observed peri-glomerular expression of a-smooth muscle actin (alpha-SMA), indicating epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, and increased expression of proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) in tubular cells, suggesting intense proliferative activity. Previous immunization with PS inhibited albuminuria and serum creatinine in association with the preservation of podocyte proteins and inhibition of fibrogenic transcripts and the expression of alpha-SMA and PCNA proteins. Tissue analysis also revealed that PS treatment induced expression of mRNA for GD3 synthase, which is a glycosiltransferase related to the synthesis of GD3, a ganglioside associated with podocyte physiology. In addition, PS treatment inhibited the influx of inflammatory CD8(pos) and CD11b(pos) cells to kidney tissue. Finally, PS treatment on day 4 post-ADM, a period when proteinuria was already established, was able to improve renal function. Thus, we demonstrate that the PS fraction of P. acnes can inhibit FSGS pathogenesis, suggesting that immunomodulation can represent an alternative approach for disease management. (C) 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Bioassay guided purification of the antimicrobial fraction of a Brazilian propolis from Bahia state

Abstract Background Brazilian propolis type 6 (Atlantic forest, Bahia) is distinct from the other types of propolis especially due to absence of flavonoids and presence of other non-polar, long chain compounds, but presenting good in vitro and in vivo antimicrobial activity. Several authors have suggested that fatty acids found in this propolis might be responsible for its antimicrobial activity; however, so far no evidence concerning this finding has been reported in the literature. The goals of this study were to evaluate the antibacterial activity of the main pure fatty acids in the ethanolic extract and fractions and elucidate the chemical nature of the bioactive compounds isolated from Brazilian propolis type 6. Methods Brazilian propolis type 6 ethanolic extract (EEP), hexane fraction (H-Fr), major fatty acids, and isolated sub-fractions were analyzed using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), high resolution gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (HRGC-FID), and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Three sub-fractions of H-Fr were obtained through preparative HPLC. Antimicrobial activity of EEP, H-Fr, sub-fractions, and fatty acids were tested against Staphyloccus aureus ATCC 25923 and Streptococcus mutans Ingbritt 1600 using minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC). Results EEP and H-Fr inhibited the growth of the microorganisms tested; nevertheless, no antimicrobial activity was found for the major fatty acids. The three sub-fractions (1, 2, and 3) were isolated from H-Fr by preparative HPLC and only sub-fraction 1 showed antimicrobial activity. Conclusion a) The major fatty acids tested were not responsible for the antimicrobial activity of propolis type 6; b) Sub-fraction 1, belonging to the benzophenone class, was responsible for the antimicrobial activity observed in the present study. The identification of the bioactive compound will improve the development of more efficient uses of this natural product.

Antioxidant activity and chemical composition of the non polar fraction of Gracilaria domingensis (Kützing) Sonder ex Dickie and Gracilaria birdiae (Plastino & Oliveira)

Gracilaria domingensis (Kützing) Sonder ex Dickie and Gracilaria birdiae (Plastino & Oliveira) (Gracilariales, Rhodophyta) are seaweeds that occur on the Brazilian coast. Based on their economic and pharmaceutical importance, we investigated the antioxidant activity of the methanolic, ethyl acetate and hexane extracts of both species. The hexane extracts display a high antioxidant activity and comparative analyses indicated G. birdiae as the most active species. Chemical investigation of these fractions showed several carotenoids and fatty acids, as well as cholesterol and sitosterol derivatives. HPLC-DAD analysis of G. birdiae showed violaxanthin (0.04 μg.mg-1 of dry material), antheraxanthin (5.31 μg.mg-1), aloxanthin (0.09 μg.mg-1), zeaxanthin (0.45 μg.mg-1) and β-carotene (0.37 μg.mg-1) as the major carotenoids. G. domingensis showed a similar carotenoid profile, however, with much lower concentration than G. birdiae. Gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry was used to determine other nonpolar compounds of these seaweeds. The main compounds detected in both studied species were the fatty acids 16:0; 18:1 Δ9; 20:3 Δ6,9,12, 20:4 Δ5,8,11,14. We found no specificity of compounds in either species. However, G. birdiae, presented higher contents of carotenoids and arachidonic acid than G. domingensis.

Anti-Leishmania infantum IgG Antibody Avidity in Visceral Leishmaniasis

IgG avidity tests are used to discriminate acute from chronic infections. There are few reports on the IgG avidity profile of patients with visceral leishmaniasis (VL). This study investigated the anti-Leishmania IgG avidity in patients with classic VL (n = 10), patients showing clinical cure after treatment (n = 18), and asymptomatic subjects with at least one positive Leishmania test (n = 20). All subjects were from areas in Brazil where VL is endemic. Serum samples were collected from each subject on two different occasions. IgG avidity was evaluated by Western blotting. The proportion of high-avidity antibodies was higher in all samples from patients with classic VL. In contrast, low-avidity antibodies predominated in subjects with a history of VL, including 13 cases (72.2%) in the first assessment and 14 (77.8%) in the second. Fifteen (75%) of the asymptomatic subjects presented a predominance of low-avidity antibodies in the first assessment, and the frequency of high-avidity antibodies increased over time in seven subjects (35%) of this group. Antibodies against the 14- and/or 16-kDa antigen fraction were detected in the first assessment in all patients with classic VL, in 10 (55.5%) treated patients, and in 10 (50%) asymptomatic subjects. These were high-avidity antibodies in most cases. In the asymptomatic group, an increase in IgG avidity against the 14- and/or 16-kDa antigen fraction was observed in three cases (15%). The results indicate distinct responses in infected and asymptomatic subjects, probably associated with the length of time after infection. In this respect, IgG avidity tests represent a new approach to better characterize asymptomatic VL.