Possible tropical lakes on Titan from observations of dark terrain

Titan has clouds, rain and lakes-like Earth-but composed of methane rather than water. Unlike Earth, most of the condensable methane (the equivalent of 5 m depth globally averaged(1)) lies in the atmosphere. Liquid detected on the surface (about 2 m deep) has been found by radar images only poleward of 50 degrees latitude(2,3), while dune fields pervade the tropics(4). General circulation models explain this dichotomy, predicting that methane efficiently migrates to the poles from these lower latitudes(5-7). Here we report an analysis of near-infrared spectral images(8) of the region between 20 degrees N and 20 degrees S latitude. The data reveal that the lowest fluxes in seven wavelength bands that probe Titan's surface occur in an oval region of about 60 x 40 km(2), which has been observed repeatedly since 2004. Radiative transfer analyses demonstrate that the resulting spectrum is consistent with a black surface, indicative of liquid methane on the surface. Enduring low-latitude lakes are best explained as supplied by subterranean sources (within the last 10,000 years), which may be responsible for Titan's methane, the continual photochemical depletion of which furnishes Titan's organic chemistry(9).

Effectiveness of a long-term use of a minimalist footwear versus habitual shoe on pain, function and mechanical loads in knee osteoarthritis: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Recent studies have shown an important reduction of joint overload during locomotion in elderly women with knee osteoarthritis (OA) after short- term use of minimalist shoes. Our aim is to investigate the chronic effect of inexpensive and minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects of OA and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee OA. Methods/Design: Fifty-six elderly women with knee OA grade 2 or 3 (Kellgren and Lawrence) are randomized into blocks and allocated to either the intervention group, which will use flexible, non-heeled shoes-Moleca (R)-for six months for at least six hours daily, or the control group, which could not use these shoes. Neither group is undergoing physical therapy treatment throughout the intervention period. Moleca (R) is a women's double canvas, flexible, flat walking shoe without heels, with a 5-mm anti-slip rubber sole and a 3-mm internal wedge of ethylene vinyl acetate. Both groups will be followed for six months and will be assessed at baseline condition, after three months, and after six months (end of intervention). All the assessments will be performed by a physiotherapist that is blind to the group allocation. The primary outcome is the pain Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) score. The secondary outcomes are global WOMAC score; joint stiffness and disability WOMAC scores; knee pain with a visual analogue scale; walking distance in the six-minute walk test; Lequesne score; amount and frequency (number of days) of paracetamol (500 mg) intake over six months; knee adduction moment during gait; global medical assessment score; and global patient auto-assessment score. At baseline, all patients receive a diary to record the hours of daily use of the footwear intervention; every two weeks, the same physiotherapist makes phone calls to all patients in order to verify adherence to treatment. The statistical analysis will be based on intention to treat analysis, as well as general linear models of analysis of variance for repeated measure to detect treatment-time interactions (alpha = 5%). Discussion: This is the first randomized, clinical trial protocol to assess the chronic effect of minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee osteoarthritis. We expect that the use of Moleca (R) shoes for six months will provide pain relief, reduction of the knee adduction moment when walking, and improve joint function in elderly women with knee OA, and that the treatment, thus, can be considered another inexpensive and easy-to-use option for conservative OA treatment.

Inequalities in mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer in Barcelona, Spain and São Paulo, Brazil, 1995–2003

Abstract Background Large inequalities of mortality by most cancers in general, by mouth and pharynx cancer in particular, have been associated to behaviour and geopolitical factors. The assessment of socioeconomic covariates of cancer mortality may be relevant to a full comprehension of distal determinants of the disease, and to appraise opportune interventions. The objective of this study was to compare socioeconomic inequalities in male mortality by oral and pharyngeal cancer in two major cities of Europe and South America. Methods The official system of information on mortality provided data on deaths in each city; general censuses informed population data. Age-adjusted death rates by oral and pharyngeal cancer for men were independently assessed for neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain, and São Paulo, Brazil, from 1995 to 2003. Uniform methodological criteria instructed the comparative assessment of magnitude, trends and spatial distribution of mortality. General linear models assessed ecologic correlations between death rates and socioeconomic indices (unemployment, schooling levels and the human development index) at the inner-city area level. Results obtained for each city were subsequently compared. Results Mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer ranked higher in Barcelona (9.45 yearly deaths per 100,000 male inhabitants) than in Spain and Europe as a whole; rates were on decrease. São Paulo presented a poorer profile, with higher magnitude (11.86) and stationary trend. The appraisal of ecologic correlations indicated an unequal and inequitably distributed burden of disease in both cities, with poorer areas tending to present higher mortality. Barcelona had a larger gradient of mortality than São Paulo, indicating a higher inequality of cancer deaths across its neighbourhoods. Conclusion The quantitative monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the formulation of redistributive policies aimed at the concurrent promotion of wellbeing and social justice. The assessment of groups experiencing a higher burden of disease can instruct health services to provide additional resources for expanding preventive actions and facilities aimed at early diagnosis, standardized treatments and rehabilitation.

Constraining H-0 in general dark energy models from Sunyaev-Zeldovich/X-ray technique and complementary probes

In accelerating dark energy models, the estimates of the Hubble constant, Ho, from Sunyaev-Zerdovich effect (SZE) and X-ray surface brightness of galaxy clusters may depend on the matter content (Omega(M)), the curvature (Omega(K)) and the equation of state parameter GO. In this article, by using a sample of 25 angular diameter distances of galaxy clusters described by the elliptical beta model obtained through the SZE/X-ray technique, we constrain Ho in the framework of a general ACDM model (arbitrary curvature) and a flat XCDM model with a constant equation of state parameter omega = p(x)/rho(x). In order to avoid the use of priors in the cosmological parameters, we apply a joint analysis involving the baryon acoustic oscillations (BA()) and the (MB Shift Parameter signature. By taking into account the statistical and systematic errors of the SZE/X-ray technique we obtain for nonflat ACDM model H-0 = 74(-4.0)(+5.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1) (1 sigma) whereas for a fiat universe with constant equation of state parameter we find H-0 = 72(-4.0)(+5.5) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma). By assuming that galaxy clusters are described by a spherical beta model these results change to H-0 = 6(-7.0)(+8.0) and H-0 = 59(-6.0)(+9.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma), respectively. The results from elliptical description are in good agreement with independent studies from the Hubble Space Telescope key project and recent estimates based on the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, thereby suggesting that the combination of these three independent phenomena provides an interesting method to constrain the Bubble constant. As an extra bonus, the adoption of the elliptical description is revealed to be a quite realistic assumption. Finally, by comparing these results with a recent determination for a, flat ACDM model using only the SZE/X-ray technique and BAO, we see that the geometry has a very weak influence on H-0 estimates for this combination of data.

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Loss of interest, depressed mood and impact on the quality of life: Cross-sectional survey

Abstract Background Depressive symptoms and chronic disease have adverse effects on patients' health-related quality of life (H-RQOL). However, little is known about this effect on H-RQOL when only the two core depressive symptoms - loss of interest and depressed mood - are considered. The objective of this study is to investigate H-RQOL in the presence of loss of interest and depressed mood at a general medical outpatient unit. Methods We evaluated 553 patients at their first attendance at a general medical outpatient unit of a teaching hospital. H-RQOL was assessed with the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Depressed mood and loss of interest were assessed by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD)-Patient Questionnaire. A physician performed the diagnosis of chronic diseases by clinical judgment and classified them in 13 possible pre-defined categories. We used multiple linear regression to investigate associations between each domain of H-RQOL and our two core depression symptoms. The presence of chronic diseases and demographic variables were included in the models as covariates. Results Among the 553 patients, 70.5% were women with a mean age of 41.0 years (range 18-85, SD ± 15.4). Loss of interest was reported by 54.6%, and depressed mood by 59.7% of the patients. At least one chronic disease was diagnosed in 59.5% of patients; cardiovascular disease was the most prevalent, affecting 20.6% of our patients. Loss of interest and depressed mood was significantly associated with decreased scores in all domains of H-RQOL after adjustment for possible confounders. The presence of any chronic disease was associated with a decrease in the domain of vitality. The analysis of each individual chronic disease category revealed that no category was associated with a decrease in more than one domain of H-RQOL. Conclusion Loss of interest and depressed mood were associated with significant decreases in H-RQOL. We recommend these simple tests for screening in general practice.

A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Connections between the Sznajd model with general confidence rules and graph theory

The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is used to model opinion propagation and consensus formation in societies. Its main feature is that its rules favor bigger groups of agreeing people. In a previous work, we generalized the bounded confidence rule in order to model biases and prejudices in discrete opinion models. In that work, we applied this modification to the Sznajd model and presented some preliminary results. The present work extends what we did in that paper. We present results linking many of the properties of the mean-field fixed points, with only a few qualitative aspects of the confidence rule (the biases and prejudices modeled), finding an interesting connection with graph theory problems. More precisely, we link the existence of fixed points with the notion of strongly connected graphs and the stability of fixed points with the problem of finding the maximal independent sets of a graph. We state these results and present comparisons between the mean field and simulations in Barabasi-Albert networks, followed by the main mathematical ideas and appendices with the rigorous proofs of our claims and some graph theory concepts, together with examples. We also show that there is no qualitative difference in the mean-field results if we require that a group of size q > 2, instead of a pair, of agreeing agents be formed before they attempt to convince other sites (for the mean field, this would coincide with the q-voter model).

Relationship Between Oral Health-Related Quality of Life, Oral Health, Socioeconomic, and General Health Factors in Elderly Brazilians

Objectives To assess the impact of oral health on quality of life in elderly Brazilians and to evaluate its association with clinical oral health measures and socioeconomic and general health factors. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Population-based cohort study on health, well-being, and aging. Participants Eight hundred fifty-seven participants representing 588,384 community-dwelling elderly adults from the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. MeasurementS Self-perceived impact of oral health on quality of life was measured using the Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI), with scores categorized as good, moderate, or poor, indicating low, moderate, and high degrees of negative impact on quality of life, respectively. Results Nearly half of the individuals had good GOHAI scores (44.7% of overall sample, 45.9% of dentate participants, and 43.4% of edentulous participants). In the overall sample, those with poor self-rated general health and a need for dental prostheses were more likely to have poor and moderate GOHAI scores. Individuals with depression were significantly more likely to have poor GOHAI scores. No socioeconomic variables were related to the outcome, except self-perception of sufficient income, which was a protective factor against a poor GOHAI score in dentate participants. Conclusion Moderate and high degrees of negative impact of oral health on quality of life were associated with general health and clinical oral health measures, independent of socioeconomic factors.

Prevalence of overweight preschool children in public day care centers: a cross-sectional study

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Brazil is undergoing a period of epidemiological transition associated with demographic and nutritional changes. The prevalence of obesity is also increasing in children and is causing numerous health problems that are becoming public health issues. The aim here was to evaluate the prevalence of overweight among children of two and three years of age. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study in municipal day care centers in Taubate, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Weight and height measurements were made on 447 preschool children forming a probabilistic randomized sample. Their body mass index (BMI) was calculated. Their nutritional status was classified using the World Health Organization reference cutoff points (2006). Their mean weight, height and BMI were compared according to their age and sex. RESULTS: The mean values for the final sample (n = 447) were as follows: mean age: 38.6 months (+/- 3.5) and Z scores for: weight/height (W/H): 0.50 (+/- 1.22); height/age: -0.03 (+/- 1.07); weight/age (W/A): 0.51 (+/- 1.23); and BMI: 0.51(+/- 1.23). The prevalence of overweight children (BMI > 1 z) was 28.86%, while the prevalence of underweight children (BMI < -2 z) was 0.89%. There were no differences in mean BMI among the two and three-year age groups (P = 0.66). CONCLUSION: A high prevalence of overweight was observed in the sample of two and three-year-old children, with practically no malnutrition, thus showing that a significant nutritional transition may already be occurring, even in medium-sized cities of developing countries.

Thioredoxin interacting protein genetic variation is associated with diabetes and hypertension in the Brazilian general population

Objective: To investigate the relationship between TXNIP polymorphisms, diabetes and hypertension phenotypes in the Brazilian general population. Methods: Five hundred seventy-six individuals randomly selected from the general urban population according to the MONICA-WHO project guidelines were phenotyped for cardiovascular risk factors. A second, independent, sample composed of 487 family-trios from a different site was also selected. Nine TXNIP polymorphisms were studied. The potential association between TXNIP variability and glucose-phenotypes in children was also explored. TXNIP expression was quantified by real-time PCR in 53 samples from human smooth muscle cells primary culture. Results: TXNIP rs7211 and rs7212 polymorphisms were significantly associated with glucose and blood pressure related phenotypes. In multivariate logistic regression models the studied markers remained associated with diabetes even after adjustment for covariates. TXNIP rs7211 T/rs7212 G haplotype (present in approximately 17% of individuals) was significantly associated to diabetes in both samples. In children, the TXNIP rs7211 T/rs7212 G haplotype was associated with fasting insulin concentrations. Finally, cells harboring TXNIP rs7212 G allele presented higher TXNIP expression levels compared with carriers of TXNIP rs7212 CC genotype (p = 0.02). Conclusion: Carriers of TXNIP genetic variants presented higher TXNIP expression, early signs of glucose homeostasis derangement and increased susceptibility to chronic metabolic conditions such as diabetes and hypertension. Our data suggest that genetic variation in the TXNIP gene may act as a "common ground" modulator of both traits: diabetes and hypertension. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational tools for comparing asymmetric GARCH models via Bayes factors

In this paper we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in order to estimate and compare GARCH models from a Bayesian perspective. We allow for possibly heavy tailed and asymmetric distributions in the error term. We use a general method proposed in the literature to introduce skewness into a continuous unimodal and symmetric distribution. For each model we compute an approximation to the marginal likelihood, based on the MCMC output. From these approximations we compute Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities. (C) 2012 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General results for the Kumaraswamy-G distribution

For any continuous baseline G distribution [G. M. Cordeiro and M. de Castro, A new family of generalized distributions, J. Statist. Comput. Simul. 81 (2011), pp. 883-898], proposed a new generalized distribution (denoted here with the prefix 'Kw-G'(Kumaraswamy-G)) with two extra positive parameters. They studied some of its mathematical properties and presented special sub-models. We derive a simple representation for the Kw-Gdensity function as a linear combination of exponentiated-G distributions. Some new distributions are proposed as sub-models of this family, for example, the Kw-Chen [Z.A. Chen, A new two-parameter lifetime distribution with bathtub shape or increasing failure rate function, Statist. Probab. Lett. 49 (2000), pp. 155-161], Kw-XTG [M. Xie, Y. Tang, and T.N. Goh, A modified Weibull extension with bathtub failure rate function, Reliab. Eng. System Safety 76 (2002), pp. 279-285] and Kw-Flexible Weibull [M. Bebbington, C. D. Lai, and R. Zitikis, A flexible Weibull extension, Reliab. Eng. System Safety 92 (2007), pp. 719-726]. New properties of the Kw-G distribution are derived which include asymptotes, shapes, moments, moment generating function, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability, Renyi entropy and Shannon entropy. New properties of the order statistics are investigated. We discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We provide two applications to real data sets and discuss a bivariate extension of the Kw-G distribution.

Bartlett corrections in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

Lemonte and Cordeiro [Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 53 (2009), pp. 4441-4452] introduced a class of Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. We give a general matrix Bartlett correction formula to improve the likelihood ratio (LR) tests in these models. The formula is simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several closed-form expressions in special cases. Our results generalize those in Lemonte et al. [Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions, Comput. Stat. DataAnal. 54 (2010), pp. 1307-1316], which hold only for the BS linear regression models. We consider Monte Carlo simulations to show that the corrected tests work better than the usual LR tests.

Weibull and generalised exponential overdispersion models with an application to ozone air pollution

We consider the problem of estimating the mean and variance of the time between occurrences of an event of interest (inter-occurrences times) where some forms of dependence between two consecutive time intervals are allowed. Two basic density functions are taken into account. They are the Weibull and the generalised exponential density functions. In order to capture the dependence between two consecutive inter-occurrences times, we assume that either the shape and/or the scale parameters of the two density functions are given by auto-regressive models. The expressions for the mean and variance of the inter-occurrences times are presented. The models are applied to the ozone data from two regions of Mexico City. The estimation of the parameters is performed using a Bayesian point of view via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.