Validation of the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet and EuroSCORE at the Heart Institute - USP

Objective: To validate the 2000 Bernstein Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the Heart Institute, University of Sao Paulo (InCor/HC-FMUSP). Methods:A prospective observational design. We analyzed 3000 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery, between May 2007 and July 2009 at the InCor/HC-FMUSP. Mortality was calculated with the 2000BP and ES models. The correlation between estimated mortality and observed mortality was validated by calibration and discrimination tests. Results: There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors between the study population, 2000BP and ES. Patients were stratified into five groups for 2000BP and three for the ES. In the validation of models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0396), however, the 2000BP (P = 0.047) proved inadequate. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve proved to be good for models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80). Conclusion: In the validation, 2000BP proved questionable and ES appropriate to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the InCor/HC-FMUSP.

Mutual Information Rate and Bounds for It

The amount of information exchanged per unit of time between two nodes in a dynamical network or between two data sets is a powerful concept for analysing complex systems. This quantity, known as the mutual information rate (MIR), is calculated from the mutual information, which is rigorously defined only for random systems. Moreover, the definition of mutual information is based on probabilities of significant events. This work offers a simple alternative way to calculate the MIR in dynamical (deterministic) networks or between two time series (not fully deterministic), and to calculate its upper and lower bounds without having to calculate probabilities, but rather in terms of well known and well defined quantities in dynamical systems. As possible applications of our bounds, we study the relationship between synchronisation and the exchange of information in a system of two coupled maps and in experimental networks of coupled oscillators.

A new species of Leporinus Agassiz, 1829 from the upper Rio Paraná basin (Characiformes, Anostomidae) with redescription of L. elongatus Valenciennes, 1850 and L. obtusidens (Valenciennes, 1837)

Leporinus obtusidens Valenciennes, 1837 and L. elongatus Valenciennes, 1850 are redescribed based on the type specimens, including those of their junior synonyms, and recently collected specimens. Leporinus obtusidens is considered to be widespread, occuring in the river drainages of La Plata, São Francisco, and Parnaíba. Leporinus aguapeiensis Campos, 1945, described from the upper Rio Paraná, and L. silvestrii Boulenger, 1902, described from the Rio Paraguay, are considered junior synonyms of L. obtusidens. Leporinus elongatus is endemic to the Rio Jequitinhonha and Rio Pardo, two eastern Brazilian river basins, and the locality cited for the lectotype, Rio São Fransico, likely to be erroneous. Leporinus crassilabris Borodin, 1929, and L. crassilabris breviceps Borodin, 1929, both described from the Rio Jequitinhonha, are considered junior synynoms of L. elongatus. A new species of Leporinus, endemic to the upper Rio Paraná, very similar and sometimes mistaken with L. obtusidens, is formally described. In addition, comments on Leporinus pachyurus Valenciennes, 1850 and on L. bimaculatus Castelnau, 1855 are provided, and a lectotype for L. bimaculatus is selected.