Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Signal Transceiver Transit Times and Propagation Delay Corrections for Ranging and Georeferencing Applications

The accuracy of ranging measurements depends critically on the knowledge of time delays undergone by signals when retransmitted by a remote transponder and due to propagation effects. A new method determines these delays for every single pulsed signal transmission. It utilizes four ground-based reference stations, synchronized in time and installed at well-known geodesic coordinates and a repeater in space, carried by a satellite, balloon, aircraft, and so forth. Signal transmitted by one of the reference bases is retransmitted by the transponder, received back by the four bases, producing four ranging measurements which are processed to determine uniquely the time delays undergone in every retransmission process. A minimization function is derived comparing repeater's positions referred to at least two groups of three reference bases, providing the signal transit time at the repeater and propagation delays, providing the correct repeater position. The method is applicable to the transponder platform positioning and navigation, time synchronization of remote clocks, and location of targets. The algorithm has been demonstrated by simulations adopting a practical example with the transponder carried by an aircraft moving over bases on the ground.

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

Massage application for occupational low back pain in nursing staff

This is a clinical trial which aims to evaluate the efficiency of massage in the reduction of occupational low back pain, and its influence on the performance of work and life activities for the nursing team. The sample consisted of 18 employees who received seven to eight sessions after their work period. From the Numerical Pain Rating Scale, significant improvements were found between the 3rd and 1st evaluations (p=0.000) and between the 3rd and 2nd (p=0.004), using the Wilcoxon test. Regarding the Oswestry Disability Index, the paired t test showed a statistical difference (p=0.02) between the baseline, with a mean of 21.33% and the second evaluation (18.78%), which was also seen between the second and third evaluation (16.67%). The score for the Handling and Transfer Risk Evaluation Scale was 18 points (medium risk). It is concluded that massage was effective in reducing occupational low back pain, and provided improvement in activities of work and life. Clinical Trials Identifier: NCT01315197.

VEGETATIVE PROPAGATION OF ANGICO-VERMELHO Anadenanthera macrocarpa (Benth) Brenan) HALF-SIBS BY MINI-CUTTINGS

The objective of this work is to evaluate the efficiency of the mini-cuttings technique in the vegetative propagation of half-sibs of angico-vermelho (Anadenanthera macrocarpa(Benth) Brenan) regarding to the productive capacity and survival of mini-stumps, rooting of the apical and intermediate mini-cuttings treated with different doses of IBA (0, 2000, 4000 and 6000 mg L-1) as well as to determine the speed of rooting in the greenhouse. The mini-stumps were obtained from seedlings of the six progenies of Anadenanthera macrocarpa half-sibs. The mini-stumps presented productivity from 1,2 to 3,7 mini-cuttings/mini-stump/collection and survival of 84% to 98% after six harvests. The apical mini-cuttings were higher than the intermediate, more prone to root, but the IBA had no significant effect on the rooting of the progenies. The results of the rooting speed showed variation among the progenies.

In vitro propagation of Sacha inchi

The aim of this study was to perform an in vitro evaluation of the auxin: cytokinine ratio in different segments of the epicotyl and hypocotyl of Sacha inchi (Plukenetia Volubilis Linneo) seeds germinated in vitro. The segments apical (A), median (B) and basal (C) were introduced into semi-solid MS culture medium (2.0g L-1 Phytagel), supplemented with MS vitamins, sucrose (30.0g L-1) and submitted to three doses of auxin indolebutyric acid - IBA (0; 0.1; 0.5mg L-1), associated with four doses of the cytokinine benzylaminopurine - BAP (0; 0.1; 0.5; 1.0mg L-1), totaling 36 treatments. After nine weeks of in vitro cultivation, the apical segment ( A) presented shoot formation by direct organogenesis at the concentrations of 0.5 and 1.0 of BAP associated with 0.0 and 0.1 of IBA. It is feasible to use in vitro cultivation with the apical region of seeds germinated in vitro used as explants.

Back-scattered electron imaging for leakage analysis of four retrofilling materials

This study aimed to evaluate, ex vivo, the nanoleakage in dentinal tubules, the linear infiltration of silver nitrate in the dentin wall/root-end filling material interface, and the presence of gaps in this interface in root-end cavities filled with 4 filling materials. Forty-eight disto-buccal root canals of maxillary molars were instrumented and filled. Retrograde cavities were prepared with ultrasonic points (apical 2 mm). The samples were divided into 2 control groups (n = 4) and 4 experimental groups (n = 10): Group I white mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA); Group II Super EBA; Group III Portland cement; and Group IV Sealer 26. After 1 week, the specimens were subjected to silver nitrate and prepared for SEM (backscattered electrons). In the apical-apical segment, an area with significantly higher leakage was observed for Super EBA, followed by Portland cement, MTA, and Sealer 26 (P = 0.0054). In the medium and cervical segments, all materials showed the same leakage behavior (P = 0.1815 and P = 0.1723, respectively). The linear infiltration at the dentin wall/root-end filling material interface was higher with Super EBA than the other groups. No differences in the percentage of gaps along the 3 mm of dentin wall/root-end filling material interface between the 4 materials were evident (P > 0.05). Nanoleakage occurred mainly in the apical segment of the samples, and Super EBA showed the highest values. The area and linear leakage were lower in the middle and coronal segments, regardless of the root-end filling material. No material perfectly sealed the root-end cavities, which allowed for the leakage occurrence. Microsc. Res. Tech. 75:796800, 2012. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The influence of the degree of back-mixing on hydrogen production in an anaerobic fixed-bed reactor

This paper reports on results obtained from experiments carried out in an acidogenic anaerobic reactor aiming at the optimization of hydrogen production by altering the degree of back-mixing. It was hypothesized that there is an optimum operating point that maximizes the hydrogen yield. Experiments were performed in a packed-bed bioreactor by covering a broad range of recycle ratios (R) and the optimum point was obtained for an R value of 0.6. In this operating condition the reactor behaved as 8 continuous stirred-tank reactors in series and the maximum yield was 4.22 mol H-2 mol sucrose(-1). Such optimum point was estimated by deriving a polynomial function fitted to experimental data and it was obtained as the conjugation of three factors related to the various degrees of back-mixing applied to the reactor: mass transfer from the bulk liquid to the biocatalyst, liquid-to-gas mass transfer and the kinetic behavior of irreversible reactions in series. Copyright (C) 2012, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Signal propagation in Bayesian networks and its relationship with intrinsically multivariate predictive variables

A set of predictor variables is said to be intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) for a target variable if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are poor predictors of the. target but the full set predicts the target with great accuracy. In a previous article, the main properties of IMP Boolean variables have been analytically described, including the introduction of the IMP score, a metric based on the coefficient of determination (CoD) as a measure of predictiveness with respect to the target variable. It was shown that the IMP score depends on four main properties: logic of connection, predictive power, covariance between predictors and marginal predictor probabilities (biases). This paper extends that work to a broader context, in an attempt to characterize properties of discrete Bayesian networks that contribute to the presence of variables (network nodes) with high IMP scores. We have found that there is a relationship between the IMP score of a node and its territory size, i.e., its position along a pathway with one source: nodes far from the source display larger IMP scores than those closer to the source, and longer pathways display larger maximum IMP scores. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that nodes with small territory have larger probability of having highly covariate predictors, which leads to smaller IMP scores. In addition, a larger number of XOR and NXOR predictive logic relationships has positive influence over the maximum IMP score found in the pathway. This work presents analytical results based on a simple structure network and an analysis involving random networks constructed by computational simulations. Finally, results from a real Bayesian network application are provided. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fat infiltration in the lumbar multifidus and erector spinae muscles in subjects with sway-back posture

Decreased activity of the lumbar stabilizer muscles has been identified in individuals with sway-back posture. Disuse can predispose these muscles to atrophy, which is characterized by a reduced cross-sectional area (CSA) and by fat infiltration. The aim of this study was to evaluate the amount of fat infiltration in the lumbar multifidus and lumbar erector spinae muscles as a sign of the muscle atrophy in individuals with sway-back posture, with and without low back pain. Forty-five sedentary individuals between 16 and 40 years old participated in this study. The sample was divided into three groups: symptomatic sway-back (SSBG) (n = 15), asymptomatic sway-back (ASBG) (n = 15), and control (CG) (n = 15). The individuals were first subjected to photographic analysis to classify their postures and were then referred for a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination of the lumbar spine. The total (TCSA) and functional (FCSA) cross-sectional areas of the lumbar erector spinae together with lumbar multifidus and isolated lumbar multifidus muscles were measured from L1 to S1. The amount of fat infiltration was estimated as the difference between the TCSA and the FCSA. Greater fat deposition was observed in the lumbar erector spinae and lumbar multifidus muscles of the individuals in the sway-back posture groups than in the control group. Pain may have contributed to the difference in the amount of fat observed in the groups with the same postural deviation. Similarly, sway-back posture may have contributed to the tissue substitution relative to the control group independently of low back pain. The results of this study indicate that individuals with sway-back posture may be susceptible to morphological changes in their lumbar erector spinae and lumbar multifidus muscles, both due to the presence of pain and as a consequence of their habitual posture.

EFFECTS OF MUSCULAR STRETCHING AND SEGMENTAL STABILIZATION ON FUNCTIONAL DISABILITY AND PAIN IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC LOW BACK PAIN: A RANDOMIZED, CONTROLLED TRIAL

Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of 2 exercise programs, segmental stabilization exercises (SSEs) and stretching of trunk and hamstrings muscles, on functional disability, pain, and activation of the transversus abdominis muscle (TrA), in individuals with chronic low back pain. Methods: A total of 30 participants were enrolled in this study and randomly assigned to 1 of 2 groups as a function of intervention. In the segmental stabilization group (SS), exercises focused on the TrA and lumbar multifidus muscles, whereas in the stretching group (ST), exercises focused on stretching the erector spinae, hamstrings, and triceps surae. Severity of pain (visual analog scale and McGill pain questionnaire) and functional disability (Oswestry disability questionnaire) and TrA muscle activation capacity (Pressure Biofeedback Unit, or PBU) were compared as a function of intervention. Interventions lasted 6 weeks, and sessions happened twice a week (30 minutes each). Analysis of variance was used for intergroup and intragroup comparisons. Results: As compared with baseline, both treatments were effective in relieving pain and improving disability (P < .001). Those in the SS group had significantly higher gains for all variables. The stretching group did not effectively activate the TrA (P = .94). Conclusion: Both techniques improved pain and reduced disability. In this study, SS was superior to muscular stretching for the measured variables associated with chronic low back pain. (J Manipulative Physiol Ther 2012;35:279-285)

Efficacy of graded activity versus supervised exercises in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain: protocol of a randomised controlled trial

Abstract Background Low back pain is a relevant public health problem, being an important cause of work absenteeism worldwide, as well as affecting the quality of life of sufferers and their individual functional performances. Supervised active physical routines and of cognitive-behavioral therapies are recommended for the treatment of chronic Low back pain, although evidence to support the effectiveness of different techniques is missing. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to contrast the effectiveness of two types of exercises, graded activity or supervised, in decreasing symptoms of chronic low back pain. Methods/design Sample will consist of 66 patients, blindly allocated into one of two groups: 1) Graded activity which, based on an operant approach, will use time-contingent methods aiming to increase participants’ activity levels; 2) Supervised exercise, where participants will be trained for strengthening, stretching, and motor control targeting different muscle groups. Interventions will last one hour, and will happen twice a week for 6 weeks. Outcomes (pain, disability, quality of life, global perceived effect, return to work, physical activity, physical capacity, and kinesiophobia) will be assessed at baseline, at treatment end, and three and six months after treatment end. Data collection will be conducted by an investigator blinded to treatment allocation. Discussion This project describes the randomisation method that will be used to compare the effectiveness of two different treatments for chronic low back pain: graded activity and supervised exercises. Since optimal approach for patients with chronic back pain have yet not been defined based on evidence, good quality studies on the subject are necessary. Trial registration NCT01719276