Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Survival, Causes of Death, and Prognostic Factors in Systemic Sclerosis: Analysis of 947 Brazilian Patients

Objective. To analyze survival, prognostic factors, and causes of death in a large cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods. From 1991 to 2010, 947 patients with SSc were treated at 2 referral university centers in Brazil. Causes of death were considered SSc-related and non-SSc-related. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors. Survival at 5 and 10 years was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results. One hundred sixty-eight patients died during the followup. Among the 110 deaths considered related to SSc, there was predominance of lung (48.1%) and heart (24.5%) involvement. Most of the 58 deaths not related to SSc were caused by infection, cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease, and cancer. Male sex, modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) > 20, osteoarticular involvement, lung involvement, and renal crisis were the main prognostic factors associated to death. Overall survival rate was 90% for 5 years and 84% for 10 years. Patients presented worse prognosis if they had diffuse SSc (85% vs 92% at 5 yrs, respectively, and 77% vs 87% at 10 yrs, compared to limited SSc), male sex (77% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 64% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to female sex), and mRSS > 20 (83% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 66% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to mRSS <20). Conclusion. Survival was worse in male patients with diffuse SSc, and lung and heart involvement represented the main causes of death in this South American series of patients with SSc. (First Release Aug 15 2012; J Rheumatol 2012;39:1971-8; doi:10.3899/jrheum.111582)

Effect of sequence of insemination after simultaneous thawing of multiple semen straws on conception rate to timed AI in suckled multiparous Nelore cows

The objective was to determine the effect of sequence of insemination after simultaneous thawing of multiple 0.5 mL semen straws on conception rate in suckled multiparous Nelore cows. The effect of this thawing procedure on in vitro sperm characteristics was also evaluated. All cows (N = 944) received the same timed AI protocol. Ten straws (0.5 mL) of frozen semen from the same batch were simultaneously thawed at 36 degrees C, for a minimum of 30 sec. One straw per cow was used for timed AI. Frozen semen from three Angus bulls was used. Timed AI records included sequence of insemination (first to tenth) and time of semen removal from thawing bath. For laboratory analyses, the same semen batches used in the field experiment were evaluated. Ten frozen straws from the same batch were thawed simultaneously in a thawing unit identical to that used in the field experiment. The following sperm characteristics were analyzed: sperm motility parameters, sperm thermal resistance, plasma and acrosomal membrane integrity, lipid peroxidation, chromatin structure, and sperm morphometry. Based on logistic regression, there were no significant effects of breeding group, body condition score, AI technician, and sire on conception rate, but there was an interaction between sire and straw group (P = 0.002). Semen from only one bull had decreased (P < 0.05) field fertility for the group of straws associated with the longest interval from thawing to AI. However, the results of the laboratory experiment were unable to explain the findings of the field experiment. Sperm width:length ratio of morphometric analysis was the single sperm characteristic with a significant interaction between sire and straw group (P = 0.02). It was concluded that sequence of insemination after simultaneous thawing of 10 semen straws can differently affect conception rates at timed AI, depending on the sire used. Nevertheless, the effects of this thawing environment on in vitro sperm characteristics, remain to be further investigated. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genomic analysis of ERVWE2 locus in patients with multiple sclerosis: absence of genetic association but potential role of human endogenous retrovirus type W elements in molecular mimicry with myelin antigen

Human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) arise from ancient infections of the host germline cells by exogenous retroviruses, constituting 8% of the human genome. Elevated level of envelope transcripts from HERVs-W has been detected in CSF, plasma and brain tissues from patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS), most of them from Xq22.3, 15q21.3, and 6q21 chromosomes. However, since the locus Xq22.3 (ERVWE2) lack the 5' LTR promoter and the putative protein should be truncated due to a stop codon, we investigated the ERVWE2 genomic loci from 84 individuals, including MS patients with active HERV-W expression detected in PBMC. In addition, an automated search for promoter sequences in 20 kb nearby region of ERVWE2 reference sequence was performed. Several putative binding sites for cellular cofactors and enhancers were found, suggesting that transcription may occur via alternative promoters. However, ERVWE2 DNA sequencing of MS and healthy individuals revealed that all of them harbor a stop codon at site 39, undermining the expression of a full-length protein. Finally, since plaque formation in central nervous system (CNS) of MS patients is attributed to immunological mechanisms triggered by autoimmune attack against myelin, we also investigated the level of similarity between envelope protein and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG). Comparison of the MOG to the envelope identified five retroviral regions similar to the Ig-like domain of MOG. Interestingly, one of them includes T and B cell epitopes, capable to induce T effector functions and circulating Abs in rats. In sum, although no DNA substitutions that would link ERVWE2 to the MS pathogeny was found, the similarity between the envelope protein to MOG extends the idea that ERVEW2 may be involved on the immunopathogenesis of MS, maybe facilitating the MOG recognizing by the immune system. Although awaiting experimental evidences, the data presented here may expand the scope of the endogenous retroviruses involvement on MS pathogenesis

ANALYSIS OF MANGROVE FOREST SUCCESSION, USING SEDIMENT CORES: A CASE STUDY IN THE CANANEIA-IGUAPE COASTAL SYSTEM, SAO PAULO-BRAZIL

Sediment cores are an essential tool for the analysis of the dynamics of mangrove succession. Coring was used to correlate changes in depositional environments and lateral sedimentary facies with discrete stages of forest succession at the Cananeia-Iguape Coastal System in southeastern Brazil. A local level successional pattern was examined based on four core series T1) a sediment bank; T2) a smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora bank; T3) an active mangrove progradation fringe dominated by Laguncularia racemosa, and; T4) a mature mangrove forest dominated by Avicennia schaueriana. Cores were macroscopically described in terms of color, texture, sedimentary structure and organic components. The base of all cores exhibited a similar pattern suggesting common vertical progressive changes in depositional conditions and subsequent successional colonization pattern throughout the forest. The progradation zone is an exposed bank, colonized by S. alterniflora. L. racemosa, replaces S. alterniflora as progradation takes place. As the substrate consolidates A. schaueriana replaces L. racemosa and attains the greatest structural development in the mature forest. Cores collected within the A. schaueriana dominated stand contained S. alterniflora fragments near the base, confirming that a smooth cordgrass habitat characterized the establishment and early seral stages. Cores provide a reliable approach to describe local-level successional sequences in dynamic settings subject to drivers operating on multiple temporal and spatial scales where spatial heterogeneity can lead to multiple equilibria and where similar successional end-points may be reached through convergent paths.

Comparative analysis of shell occupation by two southern populations of the hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Decapoda, Diogenidae)

The present study aimed to comparatively verify the relation between the hermit crabs and the shells they use in two populations of Loxopagurus loxochelis. Samples were collected monthly from July 2002 to June 2003, at Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba Bay, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The animals sampled had their sex identified, were weighed and measured; their shells were identified, measured and weighed, and their internal volume determined. To relate the hermit crab's characteristics and the shells' variables, principal component analysis (PCA) and a regression tree were used. According to the PCA analysis, the three gastropod shells most frequently used by L. loxochelis varied in size. The regression tree successfully explained the relationship between the hermit crab's characteristics and the internal volume of the inhabited shell. It can be inferred that the relationship between the morphometry of an individual hermit crab and its shell is not straightforward and it is impossible to explain only on the basis of direct correlations between the body's and the shell's attributes. Several factors (such as the morphometry and the availability of the shell, environmental conditions and inter- and intraspecific competition) interact and seem to be taken into consideration by the hermit crabs when they choose a shell, resulting in the diversified pattern of shell occupancy shown here and elsewhere.

A general framework for multi-compartmental analysis of drug chemotherapy dynamics in human immunodeficiency virus type-1 infected individuals

An optimal control strategy for the highly active antiretroviral therapy associated to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome should be designed regarding a comprehensive analysis of the drug chemotherapy behavior in the host tissues, from major viral replication sites to viral sanctuary compartments. Such approach is critical in order to efficiently explore synergistic, competitive and prohibitive relationships among drugs and, hence, therapy costs and side-effect minimization. In this paper, a novel mathematical model for HIV-1 drug chemotherapy dynamics in distinct host anatomic compartments is proposed and theoretically evaluated on fifteen conventional anti-retroviral drugs. Rather than interdependence between drug type and its concentration profile in a host tissue, simulated results suggest that such profile is importantly correlated with the host tissue under consideration. Furthermore, the drug accumulative dynamics are drastically affected by low patient compliance with pharmacotherapy, even when a single dose lacks. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of weak gravitational lensing and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich data for six galaxy clusters

We present an analysis of observations made with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI) and the CanadaFranceHawaii Telescope (CFHT) of six galaxy clusters in a redshift range of 0.160.41. The cluster gas is modelled using the SunyaevZeldovich (SZ) data provided by AMI, while the total mass is modelled using the lensing data from the CFHT. In this paper, we (i) find very good agreement between SZ measurements (assuming large-scale virialization and a gas-fraction prior) and lensing measurements of the total cluster masses out to r200; (ii) perform the first multiple-component weak-lensing analysis of A115; (iii) confirm the unusual separation between the gas and mass components in A1914 and (iv) jointly analyse the SZ and lensing data for the relaxed cluster A611, confirming our use of a simulation-derived masstemperature relation for parametrizing measurements of the SZ effect.

Analysis of energy dissipation in stirred suspension polymerisation reactors using computational fluid dynamics

This work evaluates the spatial distribution of normalised rates of droplet breakage and droplet coalescence in liquidliquid dispersions maintained in agitated tanks at operation conditions normally used to perform suspension polymerisation reactions. Particularly, simulations are performed with multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to represent the flow field in liquidliquid styrene suspension polymerisation reactors for the first time. CFD tools are used first to compute the spatial distribution of the turbulent energy dissipation rates (e) inside the reaction vessel; afterwards, normalised rates of droplet breakage and particle coalescence are computed as functions of e. Surprisingly, multiphase simulations showed that the rates of energy dissipation can be very high near the free vortex surfaces, which has been completely neglected in previous works. The obtained results indicate the existence of extremely large energy dissipation gradients inside the vessel, so that particle breakage occurs primarily in very small regions that surround the impeller and the free vortex surface, while particle coalescence takes place in the liquid bulk. As a consequence, particle breakage should be regarded as an independent source term or a boundary phenomenon. Based on the obtained results, it can be very difficult to justify the use of isotropic assumptions to formulate particle population balances in similar systems, even when multiple compartment models are used to describe the fluid dynamic behaviour of the agitated vessel. (C) 2011 Canadian Society for Chemical Engineering

Enantioselective analysis of unbound tramadol, O-desmethyltramadol and N-desmethyltramadol in plasma by ultrafiltration and LC-MS/MS: Application to clinical pharmacokinetics

This study describes the enantioselective analysis of unbound and total concentrations of tramadol and its main metabolites O-desmethyltramadol (M1) and N-desmethyltramadol (M2) in human plasma. Sample preparation was preceded by an ultrafiltration step to separate the unbound drug. Both the ultrafiltrate and plasma samples were submitted to liquid/liquid extraction with methyl t-butyl ether. Separation was performed on a Chiralpak (R) AD column and tandem mass spectrometry consisting of an electrospray ionization source, positive ion mode and multiple reaction monitoring was used as the detection system. Linearity was observed in the following ranges: 0.2-600 and 0.5-250 ng/mL for analysis of total and unbound concentrations of the tramadol enantiomers, respectively, and 0.1-300 and 0.25-125 ng/mL for total and unbound concentrations of the M1 and M2 enantiomers, respectively. The lower limits of quantitation were 0.2 and 0.5 ng/mL for analysis of total and unbound concentration of each tramadol enantiomer, respectively, and 0.1 and 0.25 ng/mL for total and unbound concentrations of M1 and M2 enantiomers, respectively. Intra- and interassay reproducibility and inaccuracy did not exceed 15%. Clinical application of the method to patients with neuropathic pain showed plasma accumulation of (+)-tramadol and (+)-M2 after a single oral dose of racemic tramadol. Fractions unbound of tramadol, M1 or M2 were not enantioselective in the patients investigated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Qualitative SEM/EDS analysis of microleakage and apical gap formation of adhesive root-filling materials

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the correspondence between gap formation and apical microleakage in root canals filled with epoxy resin-based (AH Plus) combined or not with resinous primer or with a dimethacrylate-based root canal sealer (Epiphany). Material and Methods: Thirty-nine lower single-rooted human premolars were filled by the lateral condensation technique (LC) and immersed in a 50-wt% aqueous silver nitrate solution at 37 degrees C (24 h). After longitudinal sectioning, epoxy resin replicas were made from the tooth specimens. Both the replicas and the specimens were prepared for scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The gaps were observed in the replicas. Apical microleakage was detected in the specimens by SEM/energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM/EDS). The data were analyzed statistically using an Ordinal Logistic Regression model and Analysis of Correspondence (alpha=0.05). Results: Epiphany presented more regions containing gaps between dentin and sealer (p<0.05). There was correspondence between the presence of gaps and microleakage (p<0.05). Microleakage was similar among the root-filling materials (p>0.05). Conclusions: The resinous primer did not improve the sealing ability of AH Plus sealer and the presence of gaps had an effect on apical microleakage for all materials.

Comparison of multiple-input single-output single-user ultra-wideband systems with pre-distortion

This paper presents a performance analysis of a baseband multiple-input single-output ultra-wideband system over scenarios CM1 and CM3 of the IEEE 802.15.3a channel model, incorporating four different schemes of pre-distortion: time reversal, zero-forcing pre-equaliser, constrained least squares pre-equaliser, and minimum mean square error pre-equaliser. For the third case, a simple solution based on the steepest-descent (gradient) algorithm is adopted and compared with theoretical results. The channel estimations at the transmitter are assumed to be truncated and noisy. Results show that the constrained least squares algorithm has a good trade-off between intersymbol interference reduction and signal-to-noise ratio preservation, providing a performance comparable to the minimum mean square error method but with lower computational complexity. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren: a cross-sectional analysis of 5,037 children

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren in Southern Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of 5,037 children of both genders, between 6 and 10.9 years of age, from public and private schools of Maringa, Parana, Brazil. Evaluation of factors associated with excess weight (overweight and obesity) included gender, age, school type, socioeconomic level, education of the head of the family, eating habits, and means of commuting to school. After univariate analysis (Fisher's exact test), we adjusted a logistic regression model and used Wald's test for decision-making (p < 0.05). Results: The mean age was 8.7 +/- 1.3 years, with 52.8% females; 79.1% of the students attended public school and 54.6% had families of socioeconomic class A or B. Regarding nutritional status, 24% of children were overweight (7% obesity, 17% overweight). Being male, attending a private school, and having a head of the family with over four years of education were significantly associated with excess weight. In relation to food, inadequate intake of,carbohydrates was associated with a 48% greater chance of overweight/obesity (p < 0.001; OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.25-1.76), Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight found in this study is approximate to that reported in national studies. Its association with gender and inadequate food intake indicates that these factors should be considered in initiatives aimed at preventive measures in childhood.

Latent residual analysis in binary regression with skewed link

Model diagnostics is an integral part of model determination and an important part of the model diagnostics is residual analysis. We adapt and implement residuals considered in the literature for the probit, logistic and skew-probit links under binary regression. New latent residuals for the skew-probit link are proposed here. We have detected the presence of outliers using the residuals proposed here for different models in a simulated dataset and a real medical dataset.