Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Polymerization kinetics and reactivity of alternative initiators systems for use in light-activated dental resins

Objectives. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reactivity and polymerization kinetics behavior of a model dental adhesive resin with water-soluble initiator systems. Methods. A monomer blend based on Bis-GMA, TEGDMA and HEMA was used as a model dental adhesive resin, which was polymerized using a thioxanthone type (QTX) as a photoinitiator. Binary and ternary photoinitiator systems were formulated using 1 mol% of each initiator. The co-initiators used in this study were ethyl 4-dimethylaminobenzoate (EDAB), diphenyliodonium hexafluorophosphate (DPIHFP), 1,3-diethyl-2-thiobarbituric acid (BARB), p-toluenesulfinic acid and sodium salt hydrate (SULF). Absorption spectra of the initiators were measured using a UV-Vis spectrophotometer, and the photon absorption energy (PAE) was calculated. The binary system camphorquinone (CQ)/amine was used as a reference group (control). Twelve groups were tested in triplicate. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) was used to investigate the polymerization reaction during the photoactivation period to obtain the degree of conversion (DC) and maximum polymerization rate (R-p(max)) profile of the model resin. Results. In the analyzed absorption profiles, the absorption spectrum of QTX is almost entirely localized in the UV region, whereas that of CQ is in the visible range. With respect to binary systems, CQ + EDAB exhibited higher DC and R-p(max) values. In formulations that contained ternary initiator systems, the group CQ + QTX + EDAB was the only one of the investigated experimental groups that exhibited an R-p(max) value greater than that of CQ + EDAB. The groups QTX + EDAB + DPIHFP and QTX + DPIHFP + SULF exhibited values similar to those of CQ + EDAB with respect to the final DC; however, they also exhibited lower reactivity. Significance. Water-soluble initiator systems should be considered as alternatives to the widely used CQ/amine system in dentin adhesive formulations. (C) 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancement of Nematic Order and Global Phase Diagram of a Lattice Model for Coupled Nematic Systems

We use an infinite-range Maier-Saupe model, with two sets of local quadrupolar variables and restricted orientations, to investigate the global phase diagram of a coupled system of two nematic subsystems. The free energy and the equations of state are exactly calculated by standard techniques of statistical mechanics. The nematic-isotropic transition temperature of system A increases with both the interaction energy among mesogens of system B, and the two-subsystem coupling J. This enhancement of the nematic phase is manifested in a global phase diagram in terms of the interaction parameters and the temperature T. We make some comments on the connections of these results with experimental findings for a system of diluted ferroelectric nanoparticles embedded in a nematic liquid-crystalline environment.

Linear matrix inequality-based robust model predictive control for time-delayed systems

This work addresses the solution to the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) of systems with model uncertainty. The case of zone control of multi-variable stable systems with multiple time delays is considered. The usual approach of dealing with this kind of problem is through the inclusion of non-linear cost constraint in the control problem. The control action is then obtained at each sampling time as the solution to a non-linear programming (NLP) problem that for high-order systems can be computationally expensive. Here, the robust MPC problem is formulated as a linear matrix inequality problem that can be solved in real time with a fraction of the computer effort. The proposed approach is compared with the conventional robust MPC and tested through the simulation of a reactor system of the process industry.

A Model-Based Approach for Small-Signal Stability Assessment of Unbalanced Power Systems

In this paper, a modeling technique for small-signal stability assessment of unbalanced power systems is presented. Since power distribution systems are inherently unbalanced, due to its lines and loads characteristics, and the penetration of distributed generation into these systems is increasing nowadays, such a tool is needed in order to ensure a secure and reliable operation of these systems. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a phasor-based model for the study of dynamic phenomena in unbalanced power systems. Using an assumption on the net torque of the generator, it is possible to precisely define an equilibrium point for the phasor model of the system, thus enabling its linearization around this point, and, consequently, its eigenvalue/eigenvector analysis for small-signal stability assessment. The modeling technique presented here was compared to the dynamic behavior observed in ATP simulations and the results show that, for the generator and controller models used, the proposed modeling approach is adequate and yields reliable and precise results.

Thermodynamics of Ising model with infinite-range interactions by generalized canonical ensemble

In this work we present the idea of how generalized ensembles can be used to simplify the operational study of non-additive physical systems. As alternative of the usual methods of direct integration or mean-field theory, we show how the solution of the Ising model with infinite-range interactions is obtained by using a generalized canonical ensemble. We describe how the thermodynamical properties of this model in the presence of an external magnetic field are founded by simple parametric equations. Without impairing the usual interpretation, we obtain an identical critical behaviour as observed in traditional approaches.

Closed-loop stable model predictive control of integrating systems with dead time

Model predictive control (MPC) applications in the process industry usually deal with process systems that show time delays (dead times) between the system inputs and outputs. Also, in many industrial applications of MPC, integrating outputs resulting from liquid level control or recycle streams need to be considered as controlled outputs. Conventional MPC packages can be applied to time-delay systems but stability of the closed loop system will depend on the tuning parameters of the controller and cannot be guaranteed even in the nominal case. In this work, a state space model based on the analytical step response model is extended to the case of integrating time systems with time delays. This model is applied to the development of two versions of a nominally stable MPC, which is designed to the practical scenario in which one has targets for some of the inputs and/or outputs that may be unreachable and zone control (or interval tracking) for the remaining outputs. The controller is tested through simulation of a multivariable industrial reactor system. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reference model for implementing an MRP system in a highly diverse component and seasonal lean production environment

Companies are currently choosing to integrate logics and systems to achieve better solutions. These combinations also include companies striving to join the logic of material requirement planning (MRP) system with the systems of lean production. The purpose of this article was to design an MRP as part of the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a company that produces agricultural implements, which has used the lean production system since 1998. This proposal is based on the innovation theory, theory networks, lean production systems, ERP systems and the hybrid production systems, which use both components and MRP systems, as concepts of lean production systems. The analytical approach of innovation networks enables verification of the links and relationships among the companies and departments of the same corporation. The analysis begins with the MRP implementation project carried out in a Brazilian metallurgical company and follows through the operationalisation of the MRP project, until its production stabilisation. The main point is that the MRP system should help the company's operations with regard to its effective agility to respond in time to demand fluctuations, facilitating the creation process and controlling the branch offices in other countries that use components produced in the matrix, hence ensuring more accurate estimates of stockpiles. Consequently, it presents the enterprise knowledge development organisational modelling methodology in order to represent further models (goals, actors and resources, business rules, business process and concepts) that should be included in this MRP implementation process for the new configuration of the production system.

Fractionation of lemon essential oil by solvent extraction: Phase equilibrium for model systems at T=298.2 K

The fractioning of lemon essential oil can be performed by liquid-liquid extraction using hydrous ethanol as a solvent. A quaternary mixture composed of limonene, gamma-terpinene, beta-pinene, and citral was used to simulate lemon essential oil. In this paper, we present (liquid + liquid) equilibrium data that were experimentally determined for systems containing essential oil compounds, ethanol, and water at T = 298.2 K. The experimental data were correlated using the NRTL and UNIQUAC models, and the mean deviations between calculated and experimental data were less than 0.0053 in all systems, indicating the accuracy of these molecular models in describing our systems. The results show that as the water content in the solvent phase increased, the values of the distribution coefficients decreased, regardless of the type of compound studied. However, the oxygenated compound always showed the highest distribution coefficient among the components of the essential oil, thus making deterpenation of the lemon essential oil a feasible process. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of the C-terminal region of pulchellin A-chain in the interaction with membrane model systems

Pulchellin is a Ribosome Inactivating Protein containing an A-chain (PAC), whose toxic activity requires crossing the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membrane. In this paper, we investigate the interaction between recombinant PAC (rPAC) and Langmuir monolayers of dipalmitoyl phosphatidyl glycerol (DPPG), which served as membrane model. Three catalytically active, truncated PACs with increasing deletion of the C-terminal region, possessing 244,239 and 236 residues (rPAC(244), rPAC(239) and rPAC(236)), were studied. rPAC had the strongest interaction with the DPPG monolayer, inducing a large expansion in its surface pressure-area isotherm. The affinity to DPPG decreased with increased deletion of the C-terminal region. When the C-terminal region was deleted completely (rPAC(236)), the interaction was recovered, probably because other hydrophobic regions were exposed to the membrane. Using Polarization Modulated-Infrared Reflection Absorption Spectroscopy (PM-IRRAS) we observed that at a bare air/water interface rPAC comprised mainly alpha-helix structures, the C-terminal region had unordered structures when interacting with DPPG. For rPAC(236) the alpha-helices were preserved even in the presence of DPPG. These results confirm the importance of the C-terminal region for PAC-ER membrane interaction. The partial unfolding only with preserved C-terminal appears a key step for the protein to reach the cytosol and develop its toxic activity. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.