Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall?

In this study we examine the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on South American circulation using observations and a suite of numerical experiments forced by a combination of Indian and Pacific SST anomalies. Previous studies have shown that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode can affect climate over remote regions across the globe, including over South America. Here we show that such a link exists not only with the IOD, but also with the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (IOBW). The IOBW, a response to El Nino events, tends to reinforce the South American anomalous circulation in March-to-May associated with the warm events in the Pacific. This leads to increased rainfall in the La Plata basin and decreased rainfall over the northern regions of the continent. In addition, the IOBW is suggested to be an important factor for modulating the persistence of dry conditions over northeastern South America during austral autumn. The link between the IOBW and South American climate occurs via alterations of the Walker circulation pattern and through a mid-latitude wave-train teleconnection.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability

The influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability has been investigated using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model Speedy-MICOM (Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model). In the ocean model MICOM the strength of the meridional overturning cell can be regulated by specifying the lateral boundary conditions. In case of a collapse of the basinwide meridional overturning cell the SST response in the Atlantic is characterized by a dipole with a cooling in the North Atlantic and a warming in the tropical and South Atlantic. The cooling in the North Atlantic is due to the decrease in the strength of the western boundary currents, which reduces the northward advection of heat. The warming in the tropical Atlantic is caused by a reduced ventilation of water originating from the South Atlantic. This effect is most prominent in the eastern tropical Atlantic during boreal summer when the mixed layer attains its minimum depth. As a consequence the seasonal cycle as well as the interannual variability in SST is reduced. The characteristics of the cold tongue mode are changed: the variability in the eastern equatorial region is strongly reduced and the largest variability is now in the Benguela, Angola region. Because of the deepening of the equatorial thermocline, variations in the thermocline depth in the eastern tropical Atlantic no longer significantly affect the mixed layer temperature. The gradient mode remains unaltered. The warming of the tropical Atlantic enhances and shifts the Hadley circulation. Together with the cooling in the North Atlantic, this increases the strength of the subtropical jet and the baroclinicity over the North Atlantic.

Mean and Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the CCSM4

This study analyzes important aspects of the tropical Atlantic Ocean from simulations of the fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4): the mean sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress, the Atlantic warm pools, the principal modes of SST variability, and the heat budget in the Benguela region. The main goal was to assess the similarities and differences between the CCSM4 simulations and observations. The results indicate that the tropical Atlantic overall is realistic in CCSM4. However, there are still significant biases in the CCSM4 Atlantic SSTs, with a colder tropical North Atlantic and a hotter tropical South Atlantic, that are related to biases in the wind stress. These are also reflected in the Atlantic warm pools in April and September, with its volume greater than in observations in April and smaller than in observations in September. The variability of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic is well represented in CCSM4. However, in the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic regions, CCSM4 has two distinct modes of variability, in contrast to observed behavior. A model heat budget analysis of the Benguela region indicates that the variability of the upper-ocean temperature is dominated by vertical advection, followed by meridional advection.