Integrating on-line process control and imperfect corrective maintenance: An economical design

Existing studies of on-line process control are concerned with economic aspects, and the parameters of the processes are optimized with respect to the average cost per item produced. However, an equally important dimension is the adoption of an efficient maintenance policy. In most cases, only the frequency of the corrective adjustment is evaluated because it is assumed that the equipment becomes "as good as new" after corrective maintenance. For this condition to be met, a sophisticated and detailed corrective adjustment system needs to be employed. The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated economic model incorporating the following two dimensions: on-line process control and a corrective maintenance program. Both performances are objects of an average cost per item minimization. Adjustments are based on the location of the measurement of a quality characteristic of interest in a three decision zone. Numerical examples are illustrated in the proposal. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Use of Leptospira spp. strains isolated in Brazil in the microscopic agglutination test applied to diagnosis of leptospirosis in cattle herds in eight brazilian states

Sarmento A.M.C., Azevedo S.S., Morais Z.M., Souza G.O., Oliveira F.C.S., Goncales A.P., Miraglia F. & Vasconcellos S.A. 2012. [Use of Leptospira spp. strains isolated in Brazil in the microscopic agglutination test applied to diagnosis of leptospirosis in cattle herds in eight brazilian states.] Emprego de estirpes Leptospira spp. isoladas no Brasil na microtecnica de soroaglutinacao microscopica aplicada ao diagnostico da leptospirose em rebanhos bovinos de oito estados brasileiros. Pesquisa Veterinaria Brasileira 32(7);601-606. Universidade de Sao Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinaria e Zootecnia, Departamento de Medicina Veterinaria Preventiva e Saude Animal, Av. Prof. Dr. Orlando Marques de Paiva 87, Sao Paulo, SP 05508-270, Brazil. E-mail: savasco@usp.br The aim of this study was to investigate the adequacy of the use of autochthonous strains of leptospires isolated in Brazil, added to antigen collection of the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) applied to the diagnosis of bovine leptospirosis. By means of non-probability sampling, 109 farms and 9,820 cattle, females at reproductive age were chosen from 85 municipalities in the states of Goias, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Sao Paulo. Among the 9,820 examined animals, 5,806 (59.12%) were reactants at MAT for at least one serovar using the 23 reference serovars. Employing the collection of reference serovars and the ten autochthonous strains, 6,400 (65.24%) reactants and significant difference (p=0.001) was found. The most probable serovars identified by the collection of reference antigens were Hardjo (43.03%), Shermani (20%), Wolfi (9.96%), Grippothyphosa (5.42%) and Pomona (4.28%). With the collection amplified with the ten strains isolated in Brazil, the most probable serovars were Hardjo (31%), Guaricura-M4/84 (22.50%), Shermani (15.43%), Wolffi (4.76%), Grippothyphosa (3.71%) and Autumnalis (3.24%). The serovar Guaricura, strain M4/84, isolated from bovines and buffaloes in the State of Sao Paulo, was ranked as one of the three most probable serovars in the states of Goias, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. The addition of autochthonous strains to the MAT antigen collection provided the confirmation of the diagnosis of leptospirosis in 594 cattle (6%) which have been classified as non-reactants by the reference collection (p=0.001).

Robust statistical modeling using the Birnbaum-Saunders-t distribution applied to insurance

In this paper, we carry out robust modeling and influence diagnostics in Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) regression models. Specifically, we present some aspects related to BS and log-BS distributions and their generalizations from the Student-t distribution, and develop BS-t regression models, including maximum likelihood estimation based on the EM algorithm and diagnostic tools. In addition, we apply the obtained results to real data from insurance, which shows the uses of the proposed model. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliability algorithms applied to reinforced concrete structures durability assessment

This paper addresses the analysis of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to ions chloride penetration. Structural durability is an important criterion which must be evaluated in every type of structure, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. Considering reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate the durability. Therefore, at modelling this phenomenon, corrosion of reinforcements can be better estimated and prevented. These processes begin when a threshold level of chlorides concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in the literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due to the inherently randomness observed in this process. In this regard, the durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. A probabilistic analysis of ions chloride penetration is presented in this paper. The ions chloride penetration is simulated using the Fick's second law of diffusion. This law represents the chloride diffusion process, considering time dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena and a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.