Atmospheric conditions, lunar phases, and childbirth: a multivariate analysis

Our objective was to assess extrinsic influences upon childbirth. In a cohort of 1,826 days containing 17,417 childbirths among them 13,252 spontaneous labor admissions, we studied the influence of environment upon the high incidence of labor (defined by 75th percentile or higher), analyzed by logistic regression. The predictors of high labor admission included increases in outdoor temperature (odds ratio: 1.742, P = 0.045, 95%CI: 1.011 to 3.001), and decreases in atmospheric pressure (odds ratio: 1.269, P = 0.029, 95%CI: 1.055 to 1.483). In contrast, increases in tidal range were associated with a lower probability of high admission (odds ratio: 0.762, P = 0.030, 95%CI: 0.515 to 0.999). Lunar phase was not a predictor of high labor admission (P = 0.339). Using multivariate analysis, increases in temperature and decreases in atmospheric pressure predicted high labor admission, and increases of tidal range, as a measurement of the lunar gravitational force, predicted a lower probability of high admission.

Analysis of the impact of rainfall assimilation during LBA atmospheric mesoscale missions in Southwest Amazon

The assimilation of satellite estimated precipitation data can be used as an efficient tool to improve the analysis of rainfall generated by numerical models of weather forecast. The system of data assimilation used in this study is cumulus parameterization inversion based on the Kuo scheme. Reanalysis were performed using the field experiment data of the LBA Project (WETAMC and DRYtoWET-AMC), where it was possible to verify an improvement in the simulations results, since the data assimilation corrects the position and the intensity of rainfall in the numerical model. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of Antarctic sea ice on the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere during the southern summer

This study examines the influence of Antarctic sea ice distribution on the large scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere using a fully coupled GCM where the sea ice submodel is replaced by a climatology of observed extremes in sea ice concentration. Three 150-year simulations were completed for maximum, minimum and average sea ice concentrations and the results for the austral summer (January-March) were compared using the surface temperatures forced by the sea ice distributions as a filter for creating the composite differences. The results indicate that in the austral summer the polar cell expands (contracts) under minimum (maximum) sea ice conditions with corresponding shifts in the midlatitude Ferrell cell. We suggest that this response occurs because sea ice lies in the margin between the polar and midlatitude cells. The polarity of the Southern Hemisphere Annular (SAM) mode is also influenced such that when sea ice is at a minimum (maximum) the polarity of the SAM tends to be negative (positive).

Impacts of interruption of the Agulhas leakage on the tropical Atlantic in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations

In this paper we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to investigate the impact of the interruption of Agulhas leakage of Indian ocean water on the tropical Atlantic, a region where strong coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions occur. The effect of a shut down of leakage of Indian ocean water is isolated from the effect of a collapse of the MOC. In our experiments, the ocean model is forced with boundary conditions in the southeastern corner of the domain that correspond to no interocean exchange of Indian ocean water into the Atlantic. The southern boundary condition is taken from the Levitus data and ensures an MOC in the Atlantic. Within this configuration, instead of warm and salty Indian ocean water temperature (cold) and salinity (fresh) anomalies of southern ocean origin propagate into the South Atlantic and eventually reach the equatorial region, mainly in the thermocline. This set up mimics the closure of the ""warm water path"" in favor of the ""cold water path"". As part of the atmospheric response, there is a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The changes in trade winds lead to reduced Ekman pumping in the equatorial region. This leads to a freshening and warming of the surface waters along the equator. Especially in the Cold Tongue region, the cold and fresh subsurface anomalies do not reach the surface due to the reduced upwelling. The anomaly signals are transported by the equatorial undercurrent and spread away from the equator within the thermocline. Part of the anomaly eventually reaches the Tropical North Atlantic, where it affects the Guinea Dome. Surprisingly, the main effect at the surface is small on the equator and relatively large at the Guinea Dome. In the atmosphere, the northward shift of the ITCZ is associated with a band of negative precipitation anomalies and higher salinities over the Tropical South Atlantic. An important implication of these results is that the modified water characteristics due to a shut down of the Agulhas leakage remain largely unaffected when crossing the equatorial Atlantic and therefore can affect the deepwater formation in the North Atlantic. This supports the hypothesis that the Agulhas leakage is an important source region for climate change and decadal variability of the Atlantic.

A two-layer approximation to the Brazil Current-Intermediate Western Boundary Current System between 20 degrees S and 28 degrees S

It has been shown that the vertical structure of the Brazil Current (BC)-Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC) System is dominated by the first baroclinic mode at 22 degrees S-23 degrees S. In this work, we employed the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model to investigate whether the rich mesoscale activity of this current system, between 20 degrees S and 28 degrees S, is reproduced by a two-layer approximation of its vertical structure. The model results showed cyclonic and anticyclonic meanders propagating southwestward along the current axis, resembling the dynamical pattern of Rossby waves superposed on a mean flow. Analysis of the upper layer zonal velocity component, using a space-time diagram, revealed a dominant wavelength of about 450 km and phase velocity of about 0.20 ms(-1) southwestward. The results also showed that the eddy-like structures slowly grew in amplitude as they moved downstream. Despite the simplified design of the numerical experiments conducted here, these results compared favorably with observations and seem to indicate that weakly unstable long baroclinic waves are responsible for most of the variability observed in the BC-IWBC system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323-350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days(-1) for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global interannual trends and amplitude modulations of the sea surface height anomaly from the TOPEX/Jason-1 altimeters

This study uses the global Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Jason-1 altimeters` time series to estimate the 13-yr trend in sea surface height anomaly. These trends are estimated at each grid point by two methods: one fits a straight line to the time series and the other is based on the difference between the average height between the two halves of the time series. In both cases the trend shows large regional variability, mostly where the intense western boundary currents turn. The authors hypothesize that the regional variability of the sea surface height trends leads to changes in the local geostrophic transport. This in turn affects the instability-related processes that generate mesoscale eddies and enhances the Rossby wave signals. This hypothesis is verified by estimates of the trend of the amplitude of the filtered sea surface height anomaly that contains the spectral bands associated with Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies. The authors found predominantly positive tendency in the amplitude of Rossby waves and eddies, which suggests that, on average, these events are becoming more energetic. In some regions, the variation in amplitude over 13 yr is comparable to the standard deviation of the data and is statistically significant according to both methods employed in this study. It is plausible that in this case, the energy is transferred from the mean currents to the waves and eddies through barotropic and baroclinic instability processes that are more pronounced in the western boundary current extension regions. If these heat storage patterns and trends are confirmed on longer time series, then it will be justified to argue that the warming trend of the last century provides the energy that amplifies both Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability

The influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability has been investigated using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model Speedy-MICOM (Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model). In the ocean model MICOM the strength of the meridional overturning cell can be regulated by specifying the lateral boundary conditions. In case of a collapse of the basinwide meridional overturning cell the SST response in the Atlantic is characterized by a dipole with a cooling in the North Atlantic and a warming in the tropical and South Atlantic. The cooling in the North Atlantic is due to the decrease in the strength of the western boundary currents, which reduces the northward advection of heat. The warming in the tropical Atlantic is caused by a reduced ventilation of water originating from the South Atlantic. This effect is most prominent in the eastern tropical Atlantic during boreal summer when the mixed layer attains its minimum depth. As a consequence the seasonal cycle as well as the interannual variability in SST is reduced. The characteristics of the cold tongue mode are changed: the variability in the eastern equatorial region is strongly reduced and the largest variability is now in the Benguela, Angola region. Because of the deepening of the equatorial thermocline, variations in the thermocline depth in the eastern tropical Atlantic no longer significantly affect the mixed layer temperature. The gradient mode remains unaltered. The warming of the tropical Atlantic enhances and shifts the Hadley circulation. Together with the cooling in the North Atlantic, this increases the strength of the subtropical jet and the baroclinicity over the North Atlantic.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Height variability from the MIROC - IPCC model for the 20th century compared to that of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter

Planetary waves are key to large-scale dynamical adjustment in the global ocean as they transfer energy from the east to the west side of oceanic basins; they connect the forcing in the ocean interior with the variability at its boundaries: and they change the local heat content, thus coupling oceanic, atmospheric, and biological processes. Planetary waves, mostly of the first baroclinic mode, are observed as distinctive patterns in global time series of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and heat storage. The goal of this study is to compare and validate large-scale SSHA signals from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) with TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter observations. The last decade of the models` time series is selected for comparison with the altimeter data. The wave patterns are separated from the meso- and large-scale SSHA signals by digital filters calibrated to select the same spectral bands in both model and altimeter data. The band-wise comparison allows for an assessment of the model skill to simulate the dynamical components of the observed wave field. Comparisons regarding both the seasonal cycle and the Rossby wave Held differ significantly among basins. When carried within the same basin, differences can occur between equal latitudes in opposite hemispheres. Furthermore, at some latitudes the MIROC reproduces biannual, annual and semiannual planetary waves with phase speeds and average amplitudes similar to those observed by the altimeter, but with significant differences in phase. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can Indian Ocean SST anomalies influence South American rainfall?

In this study we examine the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on South American circulation using observations and a suite of numerical experiments forced by a combination of Indian and Pacific SST anomalies. Previous studies have shown that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode can affect climate over remote regions across the globe, including over South America. Here we show that such a link exists not only with the IOD, but also with the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (IOBW). The IOBW, a response to El Nino events, tends to reinforce the South American anomalous circulation in March-to-May associated with the warm events in the Pacific. This leads to increased rainfall in the La Plata basin and decreased rainfall over the northern regions of the continent. In addition, the IOBW is suggested to be an important factor for modulating the persistence of dry conditions over northeastern South America during austral autumn. The link between the IOBW and South American climate occurs via alterations of the Walker circulation pattern and through a mid-latitude wave-train teleconnection.

Reconnection current sheet structure in a turbulent medium

In the presence of turbulence, magnetic field lines lose their dynamical identity and particles entrained on field lines diffuse through space at a rate determined by the amplitude of the turbulence. In previous work (Lazarian and Vishniac, 1999; Kowal et al., 2009; Eyink et al., 2011) we showed that this leads to reconnection speeds which are independent of resistivity. In particular, in Kowal et al. (2009) we showed that numerical simulations were consistent with the predictions of this model. Here we examine the structure of the current sheet in simulations of turbulent reconnection. Laminar flows consistent with the Sweet-Parker reconnection model produce very thin and well ordered currents sheets. On the other hand, the simulations of Kowal et al. (2009) show a strongly disordered state even for relatively low levels of turbulence. Comparing data cubes with and without reconnection, we find that large scale field reversals are the cumulative effect of many individual eddies, each of which has magnetic properties which are not very different from turbulent eddies in a homogeneous background. This implies that the properties of stationary and homogeneous MHD turbulence are a reasonable guide to understanding turbulence during large scale magnetic reconnection events. In addition, dissipation and high energy particle acceleration during reconnection events take place over a macroscopic volume, rather than being confined to a narrow zone whose properties depend on microscopic transport coefficients.

Effects of RegCM3 parameterizations on simulated rainy season over South America

The impacts of change in the Grell convective scheme and biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) in RegCM3 are described. Three numerical experiments (RegZhang, RegClaris and RegArain) are conducted to reduce the RegCM3-Grell rainfall underestimation over tropical South America. The simulation referred to as RegZhang follows modifications made by Zhang et al. (2008) in the BATS. The RegClaris combines the RegZhang BATS parameters with a reduction of water drainage at the bottom of the subsoil layer in the regions covered by the tropical rain forest and a shorter convective time period for the Grell scheme. The RegArain considers this same modification in the Grell scheme, but uses a deeper total soil column and a deeper root system in the BATS. After the first year of simulation, the soil water content in RegZhang is progressively drained out of the soil column resulting in a deficit of rainfall in the Amazon. The RegClaris and RegArain, on the other hand, simulate a similar rainfall annual cycle in the Amazon, showing substantial improvement not only in phase but also in intensity. This improvement is partially related to an increase in evapotranspiration due to a larger availability of water in the soil column. A remote effect is also noted over the La Plata Basin region, where the larger summer rainfall rate may be related to the increase in moisture transport from the Amazon. Wind- and rainfall-based indices are applied to identify South American monsoon (SAM) timing. The RegClaris rainfall rates are adequate to identify the onset and the demise of SAM according to the observed data, whereas the rainfall deficit in RegZhang is associated with a delay in the onset and an early demise of the SAM.

Reconnection studies under different types of turbulence driving

We study a model of fast magnetic reconnection in the presence of weak turbulence proposed by Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) using three-dimensional direct numerical simulations. The model has been already successfully tested in Kowal et al. (2009) confirming the dependencies of the reconnection speed V-rec on the turbulence injection power P-inj and the injection scale l(inj) expressed by a constraint V-rec similar to P(inj)(1/2)l(inj)(3/4)and no observed dependency on Ohmic resistivity. In Kowal et al. (2009), in order to drive turbulence, we injected velocity fluctuations in Fourier space with frequencies concentrated around k(inj) = 1/l(inj), as described in Alvelius (1999). In this paper, we extend our previous studies by comparing fast magnetic reconnection under different mechanisms of turbulence injection by introducing a new way of turbulence driving. The new method injects velocity or magnetic eddies with a specified amplitude and scale in random locations directly in real space. We provide exact relations between the eddy parameters and turbulent power and injection scale. We performed simulations with new forcing in order to study turbulent power and injection scale dependencies. The results show no discrepancy between models with two different methods of turbulence driving exposing the same scalings in both cases. This is in agreement with the Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) predictions. In addition, we performed a series of models with varying viscosity nu. Although Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) do not provide any prediction for this dependence, we report a weak relation between the reconnection speed with viscosity, V-rec similar to nu(-1/4).