Classification and regression tree (CART) model to predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.

Cannabinoid CB1 receptor restrains accentuated activity of hypothalamic corticotropin-releasing factor and brainstem tyrosine hydroxylase neurons in endotoxemia-induced hypophagia in rats

It is well known that endocannabinoids play an important role in the regulation of food intake and body weight. Endocannabinoids and cannabinoid receptors are found in the hypothalamus and brainstem, which are central areas involved in the control of food intake and energy expenditure. Activation of these areas is related to hypophagia observed during inflammatory stimulus. This study investigated the effects of cannabinoid (CB1) receptor blockade on lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced hypophagia. Male Wistar rats were pretreated with rimonabant (10 mg/kg, by gavage) or vehicle; 30 min later they received an injection of either LPS (100 mu g/kg, intraperitoneal) or saline. Food intake, body weight, corticosterone response, CRF and CART mRNA expression, Fos-CRF and Fos-alpha-MSH immunoreactivity in the hypothalamus and Fos-tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) immunoreactivity in the brainstem were evaluated. LPS administration decreased food intake and body weight gain and increased plasma corticosterone levels and CRF mRNA expression in the PVN. We also observed an increase in Fos-CRF and Fos-TH double-labeled neurons after LPS injection in vehicle-pretreated rats, with no changes in CART mRNA or Fos-alpha-MSH immunoreactive neurons in the ARC. In saline-treated animals, rimonabant pretreatment decreased food intake and body weight gain but did not modify hormone response or Fos expression in the hypothalamus and brainstem compared with vehicle-pretreated rats. Rimonabant pretreatment potentiated LPS-induced hypophagia, body weight loss and Fos-CRF and Fos-TH expressing neurons. Rimonabant did not modify corticosterone, CRF mRNA or Fos-alpha-MSH responses in rats treated with LPS. These data suggest that the endocannabinoid system, mediated by CB1 receptors, modulates hypothalamic and brainstem circuitry underlying the hypophagic effect during endotoxemia to prevent an exaggerated food intake decrease. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'Central Control of Food Intake'. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Biomarkers and Bacterial Pneumonia Risk in Patients with Treated HIV Infection: A Case-Control Study

Background: Despite advances in HIV treatment, bacterial pneumonia continues to cause considerable morbidity and mortality in patients with HIV infection. Studies of biomarker associations with bacterial pneumonia risk in treated HIVinfected patients do not currently exist. Methods: We performed a nested, matched, case-control study among participants randomized to continuous combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy trial. Patients who developed bacterial pneumonia (cases) and patients without bacterial pneumonia (controls) were matched 1:1 on clinical center, smoking status, age, and baseline cART use. Baseline levels of Club Cell Secretory Protein 16 (CC16), Surfactant Protein D (SP-D), C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and d-dimer were compared between cases and controls. Results: Cases (n = 72) and controls (n = 72) were 25.7% female, 51.4% black, 65.3% current smokers, 9.7% diabetic, 36.1% co-infected with Hepatitis B/C, and 75.0% were on cART at baseline. Median (IQR) age was 45 (41, 51) years with CD4+ count of 553 (436, 690) cells/mm3. Baseline CC16 and SP-D were similar between cases and controls, but hsCRP was significantly higher in cases than controls (2.94 mg/mL in cases vs. 1.93 mg/mL in controls; p = 0.02). IL-6 and d-dimer levels were also higher in cases compared to controls, though differences were not statistically significant (p-value 0.06 and 0.10, respectively). Conclusions: In patients with cART-treated HIV infection, higher levels of systemic inflammatory markers were associated with increased bacterial pneumonia risk, while two pulmonary-specific inflammatory biomarkers, CC16 and SP-D, were not associated with bacterial pneumonia risk.