A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From Amazonia to the Atlantic forest: Molecular phylogeny of Phyzelaphryninae frogs reveals unexpected diversity and a striking biogeographic pattern emphasizing conservation challenges

Documenting the Neotropical amphibian diversity has become a major challenge facing the threat of global climate change and the pace of environmental alteration. Recent molecular phylogenetic studies have revealed that the actual number of species in South American tropical forests is largely underestimated, but also that many lineages are millions of years old. The genera Phyzelaphryne (1 sp.) and Adelophryne (6 spp.), which compose the subfamily Phyzelaphryninae, include poorly documented, secretive, and minute frogs with an unusual distribution pattern that encompasses the biotic disjunction between Amazonia and the Atlantic forest. We generated >5.8 kb sequence data from six markers for all seven nominal species of the subfamily as well as for newly discovered populations in order to (1) test the monophyly of Phyzelaphryninae, Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, (2) estimate species diversity within the subfamily, and (3) investigate their historical biogeography and diversification. Phylogenetic reconstruction confirmed the monophyly of each group and revealed deep subdivisions within Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, with three major clades in Adelophryne located in northern Amazonia, northern Atlantic forest and southern Atlantic forest. Our results suggest that the actual number of species in Phyzelaphryninae is, at least, twice the currently recognized species diversity, with almost every geographically isolated population representing an anciently divergent candidate species. Such results highlight the challenges for conservation, especially in the northern Atlantic forest where it is still degraded at a fast pace. Molecular dating revealed that Phyzelaphryninae originated in Amazonia and dispersed during early Miocene to the Atlantic forest. The two Atlantic forest clades of Adelophryne started to diversify some 7 Ma minimum, while the northern Amazonian Adelophryne diversified much earlier, some 13 Ma minimum. This striking biogeographic pattern coincides with major events that have shaped the face of the South American continent, as we know it today. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morphological and molecular studies of Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae (Cyanobacteria, Nostocales) from South American water blooms

Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae (Komarek) Werner, Laughinghouse IV, Fiore & Sant'Anna comb. nov. was originally described as Anabaena torques-reginae Komarek from planktonic populations of Cuban eutrophic environments, characterized by twisted trichomes with spherical akinetes adjacent to the heterocytes. Recently, using molecular analyses, all planktonic Anabaena Bory ex Bornet & Flahault morphospecies were transferred into the genus Dolichospermum (Ralfs ex Bornet & Flahault) Wacklin el al., including Dolichospermum torques-reginae (Komarek) Wacklin et al. However, by a polyphasic characterization of strains of Anabaena reniformis Lemmermann and Aphanizomenon aphanizomenoides (Forti) Horecka & Komarek (=Anabaena aphanizomenoides Forti), these planktonic species were reclassified into Sphaerospermopsis Zapomelova et al. Our study's main objective was to characterize morphologically and molecularly cyanobacterial populations identified as Dolichospermum torques-reginae, observed in different aquatic ecosystems in South America. The 16S rRNA gene of two Dolichospermum torques-reginae strains (ITEP-024 and ITEP-026) was sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed for the first time. The morphological and phylogenetic analyses demonstrated the affiliation of the studied populations with the genus Sphaerospermopsis and, consequently, were denominated as Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae. Furthermore, geographic distribution, ecology, and toxicity of the species are discussed. It was observed in different aquatic environments, natural and artificial, tropical and subtropical in Brazil, temperate in Argentina, and tropical in Colombia, suggesting a wide distribution in South America. It normally occurred in dense freshwater blooms, although it was also found in water with low salinity. Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae toxic blooms have been reported in tropical water bodies in northeastern Brazil.

Measurements of atmospheric neutrinos and antineutrinos in the MINOS far detector

This paper reports measurements of atmospheric neutrino and antineutrino interactions in the MINOS Far Detector, based on 2553 live-days (37.9 kton-years) of data. A total of 2072 candidate events are observed. These are separated into 905 contained-vertex muons and 466 neutrino-induced rock-muons, both produced by charged-current nu(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) interactions, and 701 contained-vertex showers, composed mainly of charged-current nu(e) and (nu) over bar (e) interactions and neutral-current interactions. The curvature of muon tracks in the magnetic field of the MINOS Far Detector is used to select separate samples of nu(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) events. The observed ratio of (nu) over bar (mu) to v(mu) events is compared with the Monte Carlo ( MC) simulation, giving a double ratio of R((nu) over bar/nu)data/R(nu) over bar/nu MC = 1.03 +/- 0.08(stat) +/- 0.08(syst). The v(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) data are separated into bins of L/E resolution, based on the reconstructed energy and direction of each event, and a maximum likelihood fit to the observed L/E distributions is used to determine the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters. This fit returns 90% confidence limits of |Delta m(2)| = (1.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(-3) eV(2) and sin(2)2 theta > 0.86. The fit is extended to incorporate separate nu(mu) and (nu) over bar mu oscillation parameters, returning 90% confidence limits of |Delta m(2)| - |Delta(m) over bar (2)| = 0.6(-0.8)(+2.4) x 10(-3) eV(2) on the difference between the squared-mass splittings for neutrinos and antineutrinos.

A new method for calculating the convergent point of a moving group

Context. Convergent point (CP) search methods are important tools for studying the kinematic properties of open clusters and young associations whose members share the same spatial motion. Aims. We present a new CP search strategy based on proper motion data. We test the new algorithm on synthetic data and compare it with previous versions of the CP search method. As an illustration and validation of the new method we also present an application to the Hyades open cluster and a comparison with independent results. Methods. The new algorithm rests on the idea of representing the stellar proper motions by great circles over the celestial sphere and visualizing their intersections as the CP of the moving group. The new strategy combines a maximum-likelihood analysis for simultaneously determining the CP and selecting the most likely group members and a minimization procedure that returns a refined CP position and its uncertainties. The method allows one to correct for internal motions within the group and takes into account that the stars in the group lie at different distances. Results. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the new CP search method in many cases returns a more precise solution than its previous versions. The new method is able to find and eliminate more field stars in the sample and is not biased towards distant stars. The CP solution for the Hyades open cluster is in excellent agreement with previous determinations.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Local power and size properties of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests in dispersion models

We derive asymptotic expansions for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of dispersion models, under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the precision parameter. Based on these nonnull asymptotic expansions, the power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing malaria transmission in a low endemicity area of north-western Peru

Background Where malaria endemicity is low, control programmes need increasingly sensitive tools for monitoring malaria transmission intensity (MTI) and to better define health priorities. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a low endemicity area of the Peruvian north-western coast to assess the MTI using both molecular and serological tools. Methods Epidemiological, parasitological and serological data were collected from 2,667 individuals in three settlements of Bellavista district, in May 2010. Parasite infection was detected using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies to Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-119 (PvMSP119) and to Plasmodium falciparum glutamate-rich protein (PfGLURP) were detected by ELISA. Risk factors for exposure to malaria (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific antibody prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax were analysed using a previously published catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR). Results The overall parasite prevalence by microscopy and PCR were extremely low: 0.3 and 0.9%, respectively for P. vivax, and 0 and 0.04%, respectively for P. falciparum, while seroprevalence was much higher, 13.6% for P. vivax and 9.8% for P. falciparum. Settlement, age and occupation as moto-taxi driver during previous year were significantly associated with P. falciparum exposure, while age and distance to the water drain were associated with P. vivax exposure. Likelihood ratio tests supported age seroprevalence curves with two SCR for both P. vivax and P. falciparum indicating significant changes in the MTI over time. The SCR for PfGLURP was 19-fold lower after 2002 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.022 versus λ2 = 0.431), and the SCR for PvMSP119 was four-fold higher after 2006 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.024 versus λ2 = 0.006). Conclusion Combining molecular and serological tools considerably enhanced the capacity of detecting current and past exposure to malaria infections and related risks factors in this very low endemicity area. This allowed for an improved characterization of the current human reservoir of infections, largely hidden and heterogeneous, as well as providing insights into recent changes in species specific MTIs. This approach will be of key importance for evaluating and monitoring future malaria elimination strategies.

Phylogeography of the neotropical Anopheles triannulatus complex (Diptera: Culicidae) supports deep structure and complex patterns

Abstract Background The molecular phylogenetic relationships and population structure of the species of the Anopheles triannulatus complex: Anopheles triannulatus s.s., Anopheles halophylus and the putative species Anopheles triannulatus C were investigated. Methods The mitochondrial COI gene, the nuclear white gene and rDNA ITS2 of samples that include the known geographic distribution of these taxa were analyzed. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using Bayesian inference, Maximum parsimony and Maximum likelihood approaches. Results Each data set analyzed septely yielded a different topology but none provided evidence for the seption of An. halophylus and An. triannulatus C, consistent with the hypothesis that the two are undergoing incipient speciation. The phylogenetic analyses of the white gene found three main clades, whereas the statistical parsimony network detected only a single metapopulation of Anopheles triannulatus s.l. Seven COI lineages were detected by phylogenetic and network analysis. In contrast, the network, but not the phylogenetic analyses, strongly supported three ITS2 groups. Combined data analyses provided the best resolution of the trees, with two major clades, Amazonian (clade I) and trans-Andean + Amazon Delta (clade II). Clade I consists of multiple subclades: An. halophylus + An. triannulatus C; trans-Andean Venezuela; central Amazonia + central Bolivia; Atlantic coastal lowland; and Amazon delta. Clade II includes three subclades: Panama; cis-Andean Colombia; and cis-Venezuela. The Amazon delta specimens are in both clades, likely indicating local sympatry. Spatial and molecular variance analyses detected nine groups, corroborating some of subclades obtained in the combined data analysis. Conclusion Combination of the three molecular markers provided the best resolution for differentiation within An. triannulatus s.s. and An. halophylus and C. The latest two species seem to be very closely related and the analyses performed were not conclusive regarding species differentiation. Further studies including new molecular markers would be desirable to solve this species status question. Besides, results of the study indicate a trans-Andean origin for An. triannulatus s.l. The potential implications for malaria epidemiology remain to be investigated.