Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

The negative binomial-beta Weibull regression model to predict the cure of prostate cancer

In this article, for the first time, we propose the negative binomial-beta Weibull (BW) regression model for studying the recurrence of prostate cancer and to predict the cure fraction for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated by open radical prostatectomy. The cure model considers that a fraction of the survivors are cured of the disease. The survival function for the population of patients can be modeled by a cure parametric model using the BW distribution. We derive an explicit expansion for the moments of the recurrence time distribution for the uncured individuals. The proposed distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, unimodal and bathtub shaped. Another advantage is that the proposed model includes as special sub-models some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We analyze a real data set for localized prostate cancer patients after open radical prostatectomy.

Alpha-band power in the left frontal cortex discriminates the execution of fixed stimulus during saccadic eye movement

Introduction: The saccadic paradigm has been used to investigate specific cortical networks involving attention. The behavioral and electrophysiological investigations of the SEM contribute significantly to the understanding of attentive patterns presented of neurological and psychiatric disorders and sports performance. Objective: The current study aimed to investigate absolute alpha power changes in sensorimotor brain regions and the frontal eye fields during the execution of a saccadic task. Methods: Twelve healthy volunteers (mean age: 26.25; SD: +/- 4.13) performed a saccadic task while the electroencephalographic signal was simultaneously recorded for the cerebral cortex electrodes. The participants were instructed to follow the LEDs with their eyes, being submitted to two different task conditions: a fixed pattern versus a random pattern. Results: We found a moment main effect for the C3, C4, F3 and F4 electrodes and a condition main effect for the F3 electrode. We also found interaction between factor conditions and frontal electrodes. Conclusions: We conclude that absolute alpha power in the left frontal cortex discriminates the execution of the two stimulus presentation patterns during SEM. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A log-linear regression model for the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with censored data

The beta-Birnbaum-Saunders (Cordeiro and Lemonte, 2011) and Birnbaum-Saunders (Birnbaum and Saunders, 1969a) distributions have been used quite effectively to model failure times for materials subject to fatigue and lifetime data. We define the log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution by the logarithm of the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Explicit expressions for its generating function and moments are derived. We propose a new log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model that can be applied to censored data and be used more effectively in survival analysis. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters for censored data and investigate influence diagnostics. The new location-scale regression model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be presented in the data. Its usefulness is illustrated by means of two real data sets. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Treatment of Domestic Sewage in an Anaerobic-Aerobic Fixed-bed Reactor with Recirculation of the Liquid Phase

This study reports the performance of a combined anaerobic-aerobic packed-bed reactor that can be used to treat domestic sewage. Initially, a bench-scale reactor was operated in three experimental phases. In the first phase, the anaerobic reactor was operated with an average organic matter removal efficiency of 77% for a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 10 h. In the second phase, the reactor was operated with an anaerobic stage followed by an aerobic zone, resulting in a mean value of 91% efficiency. In the third and final phase, the anaerobic-aerobic reactor was operated with recirculation of the effluent of the reactor through the anaerobic zone. The system yielded mean total nitrogen removal percentages of 65 and 75% for recycle ratios (r) of 0.5 and 1.5, respectively, and the chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiencies were higher than 90%. When the pilot-scale reactor was operated with an HRT of 12 h and r values of 1.5 and 3.0, its performance was similar to that observed in the bench-scale unit (92% COD removal for r = 3.0). However, the nitrogen removal was lower (55% N removal for r = 3.0) due to problems with the hydrodynamics in the aerobic zone. The anaerobic-aerobic fixed-bed reactor with recirculation of the liquid phase allows for concomitant carbon and nitrogen removal without adding an exogenous source of electron donors and without requiring any additional alkalinity supplementation.

Competing regression models for longitudinal data

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretestposttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses.

Accuracy of positron emission tomography/computed tomography and clinical assessment in the detection of complete rectal tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiation Long-Term Results of a Prospective Trial (National Clinical Trial 00254683)

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) therapy may result in significant tumor regression in patients with rectal cancer. Patients who develop complete tumor regression have been managed by treatment strategies that are alternatives to standard total mesorectal excision. Therefore, assessment of tumor response with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) after neoadjuvant treatment may offer relevant information for the selection of patients to receive alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: Patients with clinical T2 (cT2) through cT4NxM0 rectal adenocarcinoma were included prospectively. Neoadjuvant therapy consisted of 54 grays of radiation and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Baseline PET/CT studies were obtained before CRT followed by PET/CT studies at 6 weeks and 12 weeks after the completion of CRT. Clinical assessment was performed at 12 weeks after CRT completion. PET/CT results were compared with clinical and pathologic data. RESULTS: In total, 99 patients were included in the study. Twenty-three patients were complete responders (16 had a complete clinical response, and 7 had a complete pathologic response). The PET/CT response evaluation at 12 weeks indicated that 18 patients had a complete response, and 81 patients had an incomplete response. There were 5 false-negative and 10 false-positive PET/CT results. PET/CT for the detection of residual cancer had 93% sensitivity, 53% specificity, a 73% negative predictive value, an 87% positive predictive value, and 85% accuracy. Clinical assessment alone resulted in an accuracy of 91%. PET/CT information may have detected misdiagnoses made by clinical assessment alone, improving overall accuracy to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tumor response at 12 weeks after CRT completion with PET/CT imaging may provide a useful additional tool with good overall accuracy for the selection of patients who may avoid unnecessary radical resection after achieving a complete clinical response. Cancer 2012;35013511. (C) 2011 American Cancer Society.

Dentoalveolar comparative study between removable and fixed cribs, associated to chincup, in anterior open bite treatment

Objective: The aim of this prospective study was to compare the dentoalveolar effects produced by two types of palatal crib, removable (Rpc+C) and fixed (Fpc+C), combined with chincup in growing patients with anterior open bite. Material and Methods: Each group comprised 30 patients, in the mixed dentition phase, with similar cephalometric characteristics and skeletal ages. Group 1 (Rpc+ C) presented initial mean age of 8.3 years and mean anterior open bite of 4.0 mm. Group 2 (Fpc+C) presented initial mean age of 8.54 years and mean anterior open bite of 4.3 mm. The evaluation period comprised 12 months between initial (T1) and second lateral radiograph (T2). The T2-T1 changes were compared cephalometrically in the 2 groups using the non-paired t-test. Results: Vertical changes in the posterior dentoalveolar region were similar between the groups (about 1 mm) and no significant differences were found in molar mesialization. The Fpc+C group had in average 1.6 mm more improvement of the overbite as a result of greater maxillary incisor extrusion (1.3 mm). Patients in this group also presented less lingual tipping of maxillary incisors and more mandibular incisors uprighting. Conclusions: The Fpc+C combination was more efficient in the correction of the negative overbite mainly due to greater extrusion of the maxillary incisors. However, the Rpc+C appliance promoted better upper and lower incisor inclination, resulting in a more adequate overjet.

Effect of artesunate-mefloquine fixed-dose combination in malaria transmission in amazon basin communities

Background: Studies in South-East Asia have suggested that early diagnosis and treatment with artesunate (AS) and mefloquine (MQ) combination therapy may reduce the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and the progression of MQ resistance. Methods: The effectiveness of a fixed-dose combination of AS and MQ (ASMQ) in reducing malaria transmission was tested in isolated communities of the Jurua valley in the Amazon region. Priority municipalities within the Brazilian Legal Amazon area were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Routine national malaria control programmatic procedures were followed. Existing health structures were reinforced and health care workers were trained to treat with ASMQ all confirmed falciparum malaria cases that match inclusion criteria. A local pharmacovigilance structure was implemented. Incidence of malaria and hospitalizations were recorded two years before, during, and after the fixed-dose ASMQ intervention. In total, between July 2006 and December 2008, 23,845 patients received ASMQ. Two statistical modelling approaches were applied to monthly time series of P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, P. falciparum/Plasmodium vivax infection ratio, and malaria hospital admissions rates. All the time series ranged from January 2004 to December 2008, whilst the intervention period span from July 2006 to December 2008. Results: The ASMQ intervention had a highly significant impact on the mean level of each time series, adjusted for trend and season, of 0.34 (95% CI 0.20 - 0.58) for the P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, 0.67 (95% CI 0.50 - 0.89) for the P. falciparum/P. vivax infection ratio, and 0.53 (95% CI 0.41 - 0.69) for the hospital admission rates. There was also a significant change in the seasonal (or monthly) pattern of the time series before and after intervention, with the elimination of the malaria seasonal peak in the rainy months of the years following the introduction of ASMQ. No serious adverse events relating to the use of fixed-dose ASMQ were reported. Conclusions: In the remote region of the Jurua valley, the early detection of malaria by health care workers and treatment with fixed-dose ASMQ was feasible and efficacious, and significantly reduced the incidence and morbidity of P. falciparum malaria.

Short communication: Principal components and factor analytic models for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Holstein cattle

A total of 46,089 individual monthly test-day (TD) milk yields (10 test-days), from 7,331 complete first lactations of Holstein cattle were analyzed. A standard multivariate analysis (MV), reduced rank analyses fitting the first 2, 3, and 4 genetic principal components (PC2, PC3, PC4), and analyses that fitted a factor analytic structure considering 2, 3, and 4 factors (FAS2, FAS3, FAS4), were carried out. The models included the random animal genetic effect and fixed effects of the contemporary groups (herd-year-month of test-day), age of cow (linear and quadratic effects), and days in milk (linear effect). The residual covariance matrix was assumed to have full rank. Moreover, 2 random regression models were applied. Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood method. The heritability estimates ranged from 0.11 to 0.24. The genetic correlation estimates between TD obtained with the PC2 model were higher than those obtained with the MV model, especially on adjacent test-days at the end of lactation close to unity. The results indicate that for the data considered in this study, only 2 principal components are required to summarize the bulk of genetic variation among the 10 traits.

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

Objective: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. Methods: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. Results: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. Conclusions: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of Sao Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Performance of fixed-pressure valve with antisiphon device SPHERA (R) in hydrocephalus treatment and overdrainage prevention

Patients with hydrocephalus and risk factors for overdrainage may be submitted to ventricular shunt (VS) implant with antisiphon device. The objective of this study was to prospectively evaluate for two years the clinical and tomographic results of the implant of fixed-pressure valves with antisiphon device SPHERA (R) in 35 adult patients, with hydrocephalus and risk factors for overdrainage. Of these, 3 had congenital hydrocephalus in adult patients with very dilated ventricles (Evans index >50%), 3 had symptomatic overdrainage after previous VS implant (subdural hematoma, hygroma or slit ventricle syndrome), 1 had previous chronic subdural hematoma, 15 had normal pressure hydrocephalus with final lumbar pressure <5 cm H2O after tap test (40 mL), 6 had pseudotumor cerebri, and 7 had hydrocephalus due to other causes. Clinical improvement was observed and sustained in 94.3% of the patients during the two-year period with no computed tomography (CT) evidence of hypo or overdrainage, and no immediate early or late significant complications.

RNA extraction from ten year old formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded breast cancer samples: a comparison of column purification and magnetic bead-based technologies

Abstract Background The development of protocols for RNA extraction from paraffin-embedded samples facilitates gene expression studies on archival samples with known clinical outcome. Older samples are particularly valuable because they are associated with longer clinical follow up. RNA extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue is problematic due to chemical modifications and continued degradation over time. We compared quantity and quality of RNA extracted by four different protocols from 14 ten year old and 14 recently archived (three to ten months old) FFPE breast cancer tissues. Using three spin column purification-based protocols and one magnetic bead-based protocol, total RNA was extracted in triplicate, generating 336 RNA extraction experiments. RNA fragment size was assayed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for the housekeeping gene glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD), testing primer sets designed to target RNA fragment sizes of 67 bp, 151 bp, and 242 bp. Results Biologically useful RNA (minimum RNA integrity number, RIN, 1.4) was extracted in at least one of three attempts of each protocol in 86–100% of older and 100% of recently archived ("months old") samples. Short RNA fragments up to 151 bp were assayable by RT-PCR for G6PD in all ten year old and months old tissues tested, but none of the ten year old and only 43% of months old samples showed amplification if the targeted fragment was 242 bp. Conclusion All protocols extracted RNA from ten year old FFPE samples with a minimum RIN of 1.4. Gene expression of G6PD could be measured in all samples, old and recent, using RT-PCR primers designed for RNA fragments up to 151 bp. RNA quality from ten year old FFPE samples was similar to that extracted from months old samples, but quantity and success rate were generally higher for the months old group. We preferred the magnetic bead-based protocol because of its speed and higher quantity of extracted RNA, although it produced similar quality RNA to other protocols. If a chosen protocol fails to extract biologically useful RNA from a given sample in a first attempt, another attempt and then another protocol should be tried before excluding the case from molecular analysis.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.