Aplicação de regressão baseada no uso do solo para predizer a concentração de material particulado inalável no município de São Paulo, Brasil

O estudo teve por objetivo construir um modelo de regressão baseada no uso do solo para predizer a concentração material particulado inalável (MP10) no município de São Paulo, Brasil. O estudo se baseou na média de MP10 de 2007 de 9 estações de monitoramento. Obtiveram-se dados demográficos, viários e de uso do solo em círculos concêntricos de 250 a 1.000 m para compor o modelo. Calculou-se regressão linear simples para selecionar as variáveis mais robustas e sem colinearidade. Quatro variáveis entraram no modelo de regressão múltipla. Somente tráfego leve em círculos concêntricos <250 m permaneceu no modelo final, que explicou 63,8% da variância de MP10. Verificou-se que o método de regressão baseada no uso do solo é rápido, de fácil execução. Entretanto, este modelo se baseou em medições de MP10 de poucos locais.

Overview of the South American Biomass burning analysis (SAMBBA) field experiment.

Biomass burning represents one of the largest sources of particulate matter to the atmosphere, which results in a significant perturbation to the Earth’s radiative balance coupled with serious negative impacts on public health. Globally, biomass burning aerosols are thought to exert a small warming effect of 0.03 Wm-2, however the uncertainty is 4 times greater than the central estimate. On regional scales, the impact is substantially greater, particularly in areas such as the Amazon Basin where large, intense and frequent burning occurs on an annual basis for several months (usually from August-October). Furthermore, a growing number of people live within the Amazon region, which means that they are subject to the deleterious effects on their health from exposure to substantial volumes of polluted air. Initial results from the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) field experiment, which took place during September and October 2012 over Brazil, are presented here. A suite of instrumentation was flown on-board the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement (FAAM) BAe-146 research aircraft and was supported by ground based measurements, with extensive measurements made in Porto Velho, Rondonia. The aircraft sampled a range of conditions with sampling of fresh biomass burning plumes, regional haze and elevated biomass burning layers within the free troposphere. The physical, chemical and optical properties of the aerosols across the region will be characterized in order to establish the impact of biomass burning on regional air quality, weather and climate.