A 15-year study on the treatment of undernourished children at a nutrition rehabilitation centre (CREN), Brazil

Objective: To build a life table and determine the factors related to the time of treatment of undernourished children at a nutrition rehabilitation centre (CREN), Sao Paulo, Brazil. Design: Nutritional status was assessed from weight-for-age, height-for-age and BMI-for-age Z-scores, while neuropsychomotor development was classified according to the milestones of childhood development. Life tables, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox multiple regression models were employed in data analysis. Setting: CREN (Centre of Nutritional Recovery and Education), Sao Paulo, Brazil. Subjects: Undernourished children (n 228) from the southern slums of Sao Paulo who had received treatment at CREN under a day-hospital regime between the years 1994 and 2009. Results: The Kaplan-Meier curves of survival analysis showed statistically significant differences in the periods of treatment at CREN between children presenting different degrees of neuropsychomotor development (log-rank = 6.621; P = 0.037). Estimates based on the multivariate Cox model revealed that children aged >= 24 months at the time of admission exhibited a lower probability of nutritional rehabilitation (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.49; P = 0.046) at the end of the period compared with infants aged up 12 months. Children presenting slow development were better rehabilitated in comparison with those exhibiting adequate evolution (HR = 4.48; P = 0.023). No significant effects of sex, degree of undernutrition or birth weight on the probability of nutritional rehabilitation were found. Conclusions: Age and neuropsychomotor developmental status at the time of admission to CREN are critical factors in determining the duration of treatment.

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

Objective: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. Methods: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. Results: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. Conclusions: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of Sao Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Assessment of MMP-9, TIMP-1, and COX-2 in normal tissue and in advanced symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid plaques

Abstract Background Mature carotid plaques are complex structures, and their histological classification is challenging. The carotid plaques of asymptomatic and symptomatic patients could exhibit identical histological components. Objectives To investigate whether matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9), tissue inhibitor of MMP (TIMP), and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) have different expression levels in advanced symptomatic carotid plaques, asymptomatic carotid plaques, and normal tissue. Methods Thirty patients admitted for carotid endarterectomy were selected. Each patient was assigned preoperatively to one of two groups: group I consisted of symptomatic patients (n = 16, 12 males, mean age 66.7 ± 6.8 years), and group II consisted of asymptomatic patients (n = 14, 8 males, mean age 67.6 ± 6.81 years). Nine normal carotid arteries were used as control. Tissue specimens were analyzed for fibromuscular, lipid and calcium contents. The expressions of MMP-9, TIMP-1 and COX-2 in each plaque were quantified. Results Fifty-eight percent of all carotid plaques were classified as Type VI according to the American Heart Association Committee on Vascular Lesions. The control carotid arteries all were classified as Type III. The median percentage of fibromuscular tissue was significantly greater in group II compared to group I (p < 0.05). The median percentage of lipid tissue had a tendency to be greater in group I than in group II (p = 0.057). The percentages of calcification were similar among the two groups. MMP-9 protein expression levels were significantly higher in group II and in the control group when compared with group I (p < 0.001). TIMP-1 expression levels were significantly higher in the control group and in group II when compared to group I, with statistical difference between control group and group I (p = 0.010). COX-2 expression levels did not differ among groups. There was no statistical correlation between MMP-9, COX-2, and TIMP-1 levels and fibrous tissue. Conclusions MMP-9 and TIMP-1 are present in all stages of atherosclerotic plaque progression, from normal tissue to advanced lesions. When sections of a plaque are analyzed without preselection, MMP-9 concentration is higher in normal tissues and asymptomatic surgical specimens than in symptomatic specimens, and TIMP-1 concentration is higher in normal tissue than in symptomatic specimens.

Prognostic factors for survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases: experience of a single brazilian cancer center

CONTEXT: Liver metastases are a common event in the clinical outcome of patients with colorectal cancer and account for 2/3 of deaths from this disease. There is considerable controversy among the data in the literature regarding the results of surgical treatment and prognostic factors of survival, and no analysis have been done in a large cohort of patients in Brazil. OBJECTIVES: To characterize the results of surgical treatment of patients with colorectal liver metastases, and to establish prognostic factors of survival in a Brazilian population. METHOD: This was a retrospective study of patients undergoing liver resection for colorectal metastases in a tertiary cancer hospital from 1998 to 2009. We analyzed epidemiologic variables and the clinical characteristics of primary tumors, metastatic disease and its treatment, surgical procedures and follow-up, and survival results. Survival analyzes were done by the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was applied to determine the influence of variables on overall and disease-free survival. All variables associated with survival with P<0.20 in univariate analysis, were included in multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS: During the period analyzed, 209 procedures were performed on 170 patients. Postope-rative mortality in 90 days was 2.9% and 5-year overall survival was 64.9%. Its independent prognostic factors were the presence of extrahepatic disease at diagnosis of liver metastases, bilateral nodules and the occurrence of major complications after liver surgery. The estimated 5-year disease-free survival was 39.1% and its prognostic factors included R1 resection, extrahepatic disease, bilateral nodules, lymph node involvement in the primary tumor and primary tumors located in the rectum. CONCLUSION: Liver resection for colorectal metastases is safe and effective and the analysis of prognostic factors of survival in a large cohort of Brazilian patients showed similar results to those pointed in international series. The occurrence of major postoperative complications appears to be able to compromise overall survival and further investigation in needed in this topic.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Role of an indole-thiazolidine molecule PPAR pan-agonist and COX inhibitor on inflammation and microcirculatory damage in acute gastric lesions

The present study aimed to show the in vivo mechanisms of action of an indole-thiazolidine molecule peroxisome-proliferator activated receptor pan-agonist (PPAR pan) and cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor, LYSO-7, in an ethanol/HCl-induced (Et/HCl) gastric lesion model. Swiss male mice were treated with vehicle, LYSO-7 or Bezafibrate (p.o.) 1 hour before oral administration of Et/HCl (60%/0.03M). In another set of assays, animals were injected i.p. with an anti-granulocyte antibody, GW9962 or L-NG-nitroarginine methyl ester (L-NAME) before treatment. One hour after Et/HCl administration, neutrophils were quantified in the blood and bone marrow and the gastric microcirculatory network was studied in situ. The gastric tissue was used to quantify the percentage of damaged area, as well as myeloperoxidase (MPO), inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) protein and PPARγ protein and gene expression. Acid secretion was evaluated by the pylorus ligation model. LYSO-7 or Bezafibrate treatment reduced the necrotic area. LYSO-7 treatment enhanced PPARγ gene and protein expression in the stomach, and impaired local neutrophil influx and stasis of the microcirculatory network caused by Et/HCl administration. The effect seemed to be due to PPARγ agonist activity, as the LYSO-7 effect was abolished in GW9962 pre-treated mice. The reversal of microcirculatory stasis, but not neutrophil influx, was mediated by nitric oxide (NO), as L-NAME pre-treatment abolished the LYSO-7-mediated reestablishment of microcirculatory blood flow. This effect may depend on enhanced eNOS protein expression in injured gastric tissue. The pH and concentration of H(+) in the stomach were not modified by LYSO-7 treatment. In addition, LYSO-7 may induce less toxicity, as 28 days of oral treatment did not induce weight loss, as detected in pioglitazone treated mice. Thus, we show that LYSO-7 may be an effective treatment for gastric lesions by controlling neutrophil influx and microcirculatory blood flow mediated by NO