30 resultados para predictive value


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Objectives. Admission hyperglycemia and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) are associated with mortality in acute coronary syndromes, but no study compares their prediction in-hospital death. Methods. Patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), in-hospital mortality and two-year mortality or readmission were compared for area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy (ACC) of glycemia and BNP. Results. Respectively, AUC, SEN, SPE, PPV, NPV, and ACC for prediction of in-hospital mortality were 0.815, 71.4%, 84.3%, 26.3%, 97.4%, and 83.3% for glycemia = 200 mg/dL and 0.748, 71.4%, 68.5%, 15.2%, 96.8% and 68.7% for BNP = 300 pg/mL. AUC of glycemia was similar to BNP (P = 0.411). In multivariate analysis we found glycemia >= 200mg/dL related to in-hospital death (P = 0.004). No difference was found in two-year mortality or readmission in BNP or hyperglycemic subgroups. Conclusion. Hyperglycemia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in NSTEMI and had a good ROC curve level. Hyperglycemia and BNP, although poor in-hospital predictors of unfavorable events, were independent risk factors for death or length of stay >10 days. No relation was found between hyperglycemia or BNP and long-term events.

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Purpose: Two-millimeter punch biopsy is a swift and practical diagnostic tool in the outpatient setting. However, few studies have evaluated the efficacy of the method for diagnosis of malignant eyelid tumors. Methods: This was an observational study of patients with suspicion of malignant eyelid tumor attending the Ocular Plastic Surgery Center at Hospital das Clinicas, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine. Following standard procedures, preoperative biopsies were taken with a 2-mm trephine and surgical excision was performed with safety margins, followed by reconstruction. Anatomopathologic analysis of the surgical specimen was used as gold standard to evaluate the accuracy of diagnosis by punch biopsy. Results: The study included 50 periocular tumors with suspicion of malignancy. The indicators of efficacy in the identification of malignancy by 2-mm punch biopsy were: sensitivity 88%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 64%. Accuracy was 90% for malignancy and 80% for histologic type. The. index of agreement between the diagnostic methods was 0.722 (p < 0.001). Conclusion: A positive result with 2-mm punch biopsy is a safe indication for surgical excision of the tumor, whereas a negative result does not necessarily imply benignity. In cases of high clinical suspicion, a second biopsy should be taken from a different part of the tumor to rule out malignancy. (Ophthal Plast Reconstr Surg 2012;28:282-285)

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In 2010, a large outbreak of dengue occurred in Santos, Brazil. The detection of the NS1 antigen was used for diagnosis in addition to the detection of IgG, IgM, and RNA. A large number of NS1 false-negative results were obtained. A total of 379 RNA-positive samples were selected for thorough evaluation. NS1 was reactive in 37.7% of cases. Most of the cases were characterized as a secondary infection by dengue 2 virus. Sequencing of NS1 positive and negative isolates did not reveal any mutation that could justify the diagnostic failure. Use of existing NS1 tests in the Brazilian population may present a low negative predictive value, and they should be used with caution, preferentially after performing a validation with samples freshly obtained during the ongoing epidemic.

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BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) therapy may result in significant tumor regression in patients with rectal cancer. Patients who develop complete tumor regression have been managed by treatment strategies that are alternatives to standard total mesorectal excision. Therefore, assessment of tumor response with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) after neoadjuvant treatment may offer relevant information for the selection of patients to receive alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: Patients with clinical T2 (cT2) through cT4NxM0 rectal adenocarcinoma were included prospectively. Neoadjuvant therapy consisted of 54 grays of radiation and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Baseline PET/CT studies were obtained before CRT followed by PET/CT studies at 6 weeks and 12 weeks after the completion of CRT. Clinical assessment was performed at 12 weeks after CRT completion. PET/CT results were compared with clinical and pathologic data. RESULTS: In total, 99 patients were included in the study. Twenty-three patients were complete responders (16 had a complete clinical response, and 7 had a complete pathologic response). The PET/CT response evaluation at 12 weeks indicated that 18 patients had a complete response, and 81 patients had an incomplete response. There were 5 false-negative and 10 false-positive PET/CT results. PET/CT for the detection of residual cancer had 93% sensitivity, 53% specificity, a 73% negative predictive value, an 87% positive predictive value, and 85% accuracy. Clinical assessment alone resulted in an accuracy of 91%. PET/CT information may have detected misdiagnoses made by clinical assessment alone, improving overall accuracy to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tumor response at 12 weeks after CRT completion with PET/CT imaging may provide a useful additional tool with good overall accuracy for the selection of patients who may avoid unnecessary radical resection after achieving a complete clinical response. Cancer 2012;35013511. (C) 2011 American Cancer Society.

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Objective: To identify differences in the evolution of children with non-severe acute lower respiratory tract infection between those with and without radiographically diagnosed pneumonia. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: A public university pediatric hospital in Salvador, Northeast Brazil. Patients: Children aged 2-59 months. Methods: By active surveillance, the pneumonia cases were prospectively identified in a 2-year period. Each case was followed-up for changes in various clinical symptoms and signs. Demographic, clinical and radiographic data were recorded in standardized forms. Exclusion was due to antibiotic use in the previous 48 hours, signs of severe disease, refusal to give informed consent, underlying chronic illness, hospitalization in the previous 7 days or amoxicillin allergy. Chest X-ray (CXR) was later read by at least 2 independent pediatric radiologists. Main Outcome Measures: Radiographic diagnosed pneumonia based on agreed detection of pulmonary infiltrate or pleural effusion in 2 assessments. Results: A total of 382 patients receiving amoxicillin were studied, of whom, 372 (97.4%) had concordant radiographic diagnosis which was pneumonia (52%), normal CXR (41%). and others (7%). By multivariate analysis, age (OR=1.03; 95% CI: 1.02-1.05), disease >= 5days (OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.001-1.08), reduced pulmonary expansion (OR = 3.3; 95% CI: 1.4-8.0), absence of wheezing (OR = 0.5; 95% CI: 0.3-0.9), crackles on admission (OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2-3.5), inability to drink on day 1 (OR = 4.2; 95% CI: 1.05-17.3), consolidation percussion sign (OR = 7.0; 95% CI: 1.5-32.3), tachypnea (OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.09-3.6) and fever (OR = 3.6; 95% CI: 1.4-9.4) on day 2 were independently associated with pneumonia. The highest positive predictive value was at the 2nd day of evolution for tachypnea (71.0%) and fever (81.1%). Conclusion: Persistence of fever or tachypnea up to the second day of amoxicillin treatment is predictive of radiographically diagnosed pneumonia among children with non-severe lower respiratory tract diseases.

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OBJECTIVE: Enterobacteriaceae bacteria harboring Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase are a serious worldwide threat. The molecular identification of these pathogens is not routine in Brazilian hospitals, and a rapid phenotypic screening test is desirable. This study aims to evaluate the modified Hodge test as a phenotypic screening test for Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase. METHOD: From April 2009 to July 2011, all Enterobacteriaceae bacteria that were not susceptible to ertapenem according to Vitek2 analysis were analyzed with the modified Hodge test. All positive isolates and a random subset of negative isolates were also assayed for the presence of blaKPC. Isolates that were positive in modified Hodge tests were sub-classified as true-positives (E. coli touched the ertapenem disk) or inconclusive (distortion of the inhibition zone of E. coli, but growth did not reach the ertapenem disk). Negative results were defined as samples with no distortion of the inhibition zone around the ertapenem disk. RESULTS: Among the 1521 isolates of Enterobacteriaceae bacteria that were not susceptible to ertapenem, 30% were positive for blaKPC, and 35% were positive according to the modified Hodge test (81% specificity). Under the proposed sub-classification, true positives showed a 98% agreement with the blaKPC results. The negative predictive value of the modified Hodge test for detection was 100%. KPC producers showed high antimicrobial resistance rates, but 90% and 77% of these isolates were susceptible to aminoglycoside and tigecycline, respectively. CONCLUSION: Standardizing the modified Hodge test interpretation may improve the specificity of KPC detection. In this study, negative test results ruled out 100% of the isolates harboring Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase-2. The test may therefore be regarded as a good epidemiological tool.

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Objectives: Previous evidence supports a direct relationship between the calcium burden (volume) on post-contrast CT with the percent internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis at the carotid bifurcation. We sought to further investigate this relationship by comparing non-enhanced CT (NECT) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA). Methods: 50 patients (aged 41-82 years) were retrospectively identified who had undergone cervical NECT and DSA. A 64-multidetector array CT (MDCT) scanner was utilised and the images reviewed using preset window widths/levels (30/300) optimised to calcium, with the volumes measured via three-dimensional reconstructive software. Stenosis measurements were performed on DSA and luminal diameter stenoses >40% were considered "significant". Volume thresholds of 0.01, 0.03, 0.06, 0.09 and 0.12 cm(3) were utilised and Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) was calculated to correlate the calcium volume with percent stenosis. Results: Of 100 carotid bifurcations, 88 were available and of these 7 were significantly stenotic. The NECT calcium volume moderately correlated with percent stenosis on DSA r=0.53 (p<0.01). A moderate-strong correlation was found between the square root of calcium volume on NECT with percent stenosis on DSA (r=0.60, p<0.01). Via a receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.06 cm(3) was determined to be the best threshold (sensitivity 100%, specificity 90.1%, negative predictive value 100% and positive predictive value 46.7%) for detecting significant stenoses. Conclusion: This preliminary investigation confirms a correlation between carotid bifurcation calcium volume and percent ICA stenosis and is promising for the optimal threshold for stenosis detection. Future studies could utilise calcium volumes to create a "score" that could predict high grade stenosis.

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Objective Various nonvalidated criteria for disease flare have been used in studies of gout. Our objective was to develop empirical definitions for a gout flare from patient-reported features. Methods Possible elements for flare criteria were previously reported. Data were collected from 210 gout patients at 8 international sites to evaluate potential gout flare criteria against the gold standard of an expert rheumatologist definition. Flare definitions based on the presence of the number of criteria independently associated with the flare and classification and regression tree approaches were developed. Results The mean +/- SD age of the study participants was 56.2 +/- 15 years, 207 of them (98%) were men, and 54 of them (26%) had flares of gout. The presence of any patient-reported warm joint, any patient-reported swollen joint, patient-reported pain at rest score of >3 (010 scale), and patient-reported flare were independently associated with the study gold standard. The greatest discriminating power was noted for the presence of 3 or more of the above 4 criteria (sensitivity 91% and specificity 82%). Requiring all 4 criteria provided the highest specificity (96%) and positive predictive value (85%). A classification tree identified pain at rest with a score of >3, followed by patient self-reported flare, as the rule associated with the gold standard (sensitivity 83% and specificity 90%). Conclusion We propose definitions for a disease flare based on self-reported items in patients previously diagnosed as having gout. Patient-reported flare, joint pain at rest, warm joints, and swollen joints were most strongly associated with presence of a gout flare. These provisional definitions will next be validated in clinical trials.

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There are no studies investigating the effect of the contrast infusion on the sensitivity and specificity of the main Doppler criteria of renal artery stenosis (RAS). Our aim was to evaluate the accuracy of these Doppler criteria prior to and following the intravenous administration of perfluorocarbon exposed sonicated albumin (PESDA) in patients suspected of having RAS. Thirty consecutive hypertensive patients (13 males, mean age of 57 ± 10 years) suspected of having RAS by clinical clues, were submitted to ultrasonography (US) of renal arteries before and after enhancement using continuous infusion of PESDA. All patients underwent angiography, and haemodynamically significant RAS was considered when ≥50%. At angiography, it was detected RAS ≥50% in 18 patients, 5 with bilateral stenosis. After contrast, the examination time was slightly reduced by approximately 20%. In non-enhanced US the sensitivity was better when based on resistance index (82.9%) while the specificity was better when based on renal aortic ratio (89.2%). The predictive positive value was stable for all indexes (74.0%–88.0%) while negative predictive value was low (44%–51%). The specificity and positive predictive value based on renal aortic ratio increased after PESDA injection respectively, from 89 to 97.3% and from 88 to 95%. In hypertensives suspected to have RAS the sensitivity and specificity of Duplex US is dependent of the criterion evaluated. Enhancement with continuous infusion of PESDA improves only the specificity based on renal aortic ratio but do not modify the sensitivity of any index.

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Prenatal immune challenge (PIC) in pregnant rodents produces offspring with abnormalities in behavior, histology, and gene expression that are reminiscent of schizophrenia and autism. Based on this, the goal of this article was to review the main contributions of PIC models, especially the one using the viral-mimetic particle polyriboinosinic-polyribocytidylic acid (poly-I:C), to the understanding of the etiology, biological basis and treatment of schizophrenia. This systematic review consisted of a search of available web databases (PubMed, SciELO, LILACS, PsycINFO, and ISI Web of Knowledge) for original studies published in the last 10 years (May 2001 to October 2011) concerning animal models of PIC, focusing on those using poly-I:C. The results showed that the PIC model with poly-I:C is able to mimic the prodrome and both the positive and negative/cognitive dimensions of schizophrenia, depending on the specific gestation time window of the immune challenge. The model resembles the neurobiology and etiology of schizophrenia and has good predictive value. In conclusion, this model is a robust tool for the identification of novel molecular targets during prenatal life, adolescence and adulthood that might contribute to the development of preventive and/or treatment strategies (targeting specific symptoms, i.e., positive or negative/cognitive) for this devastating mental disorder, also presenting biosafety as compared to viral infection models. One limitation of this model is the incapacity to model the full spectrum of immune responses normally induced by viral exposure.

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OBJECTIVE: Enterobacteriaceae bacteria harboring Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase are a serious worldwide threat. The molecular identification of these pathogens is not routine in Brazilian hospitals, and a rapid phenotypic screening test is desirable. This study aims to evaluate the modified Hodge test as a phenotypic screening test for Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase. METHOD: From April 2009 to July 2011, all Enterobacteriaceae bacteria that were not susceptible to ertapenem according to Vitek2 analysis were analyzed with the modified Hodge test. All positive isolates and a random subset of negative isolates were also assayed for the presence of blaKPC. Isolates that were positive in modified Hodge tests were sub-classified as true-positives (E. coli touched the ertapenem disk) or inconclusive (distortion of the inhibition zone of E. coli, but growth did not reach the ertapenem disk). Negative results were defined as samples with no distortion of the inhibition zone around the ertapenem disk. RESULTS: Among the 1521 isolates of Enterobacteriaceae bacteria that were not susceptible to ertapenem, 30% were positive for blaKPC, and 35% were positive according to the modified Hodge test (81% specificity). Under the proposed sub-classification, true positives showed a 98% agreement with the blaKPC results. The negative predictive value of the modified Hodge test for detection was 100%. KPC producers showed high antimicrobial resistance rates, but 90% and 77% of these isolates were susceptible to aminoglycoside and tigecycline, respectively. CONCLUSION: Standardizing the modified Hodge test interpretation may improve the specificity of KPC detection. In this study, negative test results ruled out 100% of the isolates harboring Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase 2. The test may therefore be regarded as a good epidemiological tool.

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Abstract Background The diagnosis of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a challenge, particularly after cardiac surgery. The use of biological markers of infection has been suggested to improve the accuracy of VAP diagnosis. We aimed to evaluate the usefulness of soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells (sTREM)-1 in the diagnosis of VAP following cardiac surgery. Methods This was a prospective observational cohort study of children with congenital heart disease admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) after surgery and who remained intubated and mechanically ventilated for at least 24 hours postoperatively. VAP was defined by the 2007 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Blood, modified bronchoalveolar lavage (mBAL) fluid and exhaled ventilator condensate (EVC) were collected daily, starting immediately after surgery until the fifth postoperative day or until extubation for measurement of sTREM-1. Results Thirty patients were included, 16 with VAP. Demographic variables, Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) and Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS)-1 scores, duration of surgery and length of cardiopulmonary bypass were not significantly diferent in patients with and without VAP. However, time on mechanical ventilation and length of stay in the PICU and in the hospital were significantly longer in the VAP group. Serum and mBAL fluid sTREM-1 concentrations were similar in both groups. In the VAP group, 12 of 16 patients had sTREM-1 detected in EVC, whereas it was undetectable in all but two patients in the non-VAP group over the study period (p = 0.0013) (sensitivity 0.75, specificity 0.86, positive predictive value 0.86, negative predictive value 0.75, positive likelihood ratio (LR) 5.25, negative LR 0.29). Conclusion Measurement of sTREM-1 in EVC may be useful for the diagnosis of VAP after cardiac surgery.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the routine use of rapid antigen detection test in the diagnosis and treatment of acute pharyngotonsillitis in children. METHODS: This is a prospective and observational study, with a protocol compliance design established at the Emergency Unit of the University Hospital of Universidade de São Paulo for the care of children and adolescents diagnosed with acute pharyngitis. RESULTS: 650 children and adolescents were enrolled. Based on clinical findings, antibiotics would be prescribed for 389 patients (59.8%); using the rapid antigen detection test, they were prescribed for 286 patients (44.0%). Among the 261 children who would not have received antibiotics based on the clinical evaluation, 111 (42.5%) had positive rapid antigen detection test. The diagnosis based only on clinical evaluation showed 61.1% sensitivity, 47.7% specificity, 44.9% positive predictive value, and 57.5% negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngotonsillitis had low sensitivity and specificity. The routine use of rapid antigen detection test led to the reduction of antibiotic use and the identification of a risk group for complications of streptococcal infection, since 42.5% positive rapid antigen detection test patients would not have received antibiotics based only on clinical diagnosis.

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Introduction Toxoplasmosis may be life-threatening in fetuses and in immune-deficient patients. Conventional laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis is based on the presence of IgM and IgG anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies; however, molecular techniques have emerged as alternative tools due to their increased sensitivity. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of 4 PCR-based methods for the laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis. One hundred pregnant women who seroconverted during pregnancy were included in the study. The definition of cases was based on a 12-month follow-up of the infants. Methods Amniotic fluid samples were submitted to DNA extraction and amplification by the following 4 Toxoplasma techniques performed with parasite B1 gene primers: conventional PCR, nested-PCR, multiplex-nested-PCR, and real-time PCR. Seven parameters were analyzed, sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and efficiency (Ef). Results Fifty-nine of the 100 infants had toxoplasmosis; 42 (71.2%) had IgM antibodies at birth but were asymptomatic, and the remaining 17 cases had non-detectable IgM antibodies but high IgG antibody titers that were associated with retinochoroiditis in 8 (13.5%) cases, abnormal cranial ultrasound in 5 (8.5%) cases, and signs/symptoms suggestive of infection in 4 (6.8%) cases. The conventional PCR assay detected 50 cases (9 false-negatives), nested-PCR detected 58 cases (1 false-negative and 4 false-positives), multiplex-nested-PCR detected 57 cases (2 false-negatives), and real-time-PCR detected 58 cases (1 false-negative). Conclusions The real-time PCR assay was the best-performing technique based on the parameters of Se (98.3%), Sp (100%), PPV (100%), NPV (97.6%), PLR (â^ž), NLR (0.017), and Ef (99%).

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Irnmunohistochcmical expression of BAX was evaluated in 24 canine cutaneous mast cell tumours in order to verify the relationship of this expression to the histopathological grade of the lesions and its prognostic value for clinical outcome. BAX expression increased with higher histopathological grades (P = 0.0148; P < 0.05 between grades I and III). Animals with high levels of BAX expression were 4.25 times more likely to die from the disease and had shorter post-surgical survival times (P = 0.0009). These results suggest that alterations in BAX expression may be related to the aggressiveness of canine cutaneous mast cell tumours, indicating that immunohistochemical detection of BAX may be predictive of clinical outcome. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.