42 resultados para Reliability, Failure Distribution Function, Hazard Rate, Exponential Distribution
Resumo:
Variable rate sprinklers (VRS) have been developed to promote localized water application of irrigated areas. In Precision Irrigation, VRS permits better control of flow adjustment and, at the same time, provides satisfactory radial distribution profiles for various pressures and flow rates are really necessary. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance and radial distribution profiles of a developed VRS which varies the nozzle cross sectional area by moving a pin in or out using a stepper motor. Field tests were performed under different conditions of service pressure, rotation angles imposed on the pin and flow rate which resulted in maximal water throw radiuses ranging from 7.30 to 10.38 m. In the experiments in which the service pressure remained constant, the maximal throw radius varied from 7.96 to 8.91 m. Averages were used of repetitions performed under conditions without wind or with winds less than 1.3 m s-1. The VRS with the four stream deflector resulted in greater water application throw radius compared to the six stream deflector. However, the six stream deflector had greater precipitation intensities, as well as better distribution. Thus, selection of the deflector to be utilized should be based on project requirements, respecting the difference in the obtained results. With a small opening of the nozzle, the VRS produced small water droplets that visually presented applicability for foliar chemigation. Regarding the comparison between the estimated and observed flow rates, the stepper motor produced excellent results.
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In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.
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This paper proposes an evolutionary computing strategy to solve the problem of fault indicator (FI) placement in primary distribution feeders. More specifically, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search for an efficient configuration of FIs, located at the best positions on the main feeder of a real-life distribution system. Thus, the problem is modeled as one of optimization, aimed at improving the distribution reliability indices, while, at the same time, finding the least expensive solution. Based on actual data, the results confirm the efficiency of the GA approach to the FI placement problem.
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Background: The role of an impaired estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at hospital admission in the outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been underreported. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of an admission eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) on the incidence and early and late mortality of AMI-associated AKI. Methods: A prospective study of 828 AMI patients was performed. AKI was defined as a serum creatinine increase of >= 50% from the time of admission (RIFLE criteria) in the first 7 days of hospitalization. Patients were divided into subgroups according to their eGFR upon hospital admission (MDRD formula, mL/min/1.73 m(2)) and the development of AKI: eGFR >= 60 without AKI, eGFR<60 without AKI, eGFR >= 60 with AKI and eGFR<60 with AKI. Results: Overall, 14.6% of the patients in this study developed AKI. The admission eGFR had no impact on the incidence of AKI. However, the admission eGFR was associated with the outcome of AMI-associated AKI. The adjusted hazard ratios (AHR, Cox multivariate analysis) for 30-day mortality were 2.00 (95% CI 1.11-3.61) for eGFR, 60 without AKI, 4.76 (95% CI 2.45-9.26) for eGFR >= 60 with AKI and 6.27 (95% CI 3.20-12.29) for eGFR, 60 with AKI. Only an admission eGFR of <60 with AKI was significantly associated with a 30-day to 1-year mortality hazard (AHR 3.05, 95% CI 1.50-6.19). Conclusions: AKI development was associated with an increased early mortality hazard in AMI patients with either preserved or impaired admission eGFR. Only the association of impaired admission eGFR and AKI was associated with an increased hazard for late mortality among these patients.
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Synchronous telecommunication networks, distributed control systems and integrated circuits have its accuracy of operation dependent on the existence of a reliable time basis signal extracted from the line data stream and acquirable to each node. In this sense, the existence of a sub-network (inside the main network) dedicated to the distribution of the clock signals is crucially important. There are different solutions for the architecture of the time distribution sub-network and choosing one of them depends on cost, precision, reliability and operational security. In this work we expose: (i) the possible time distribution networks and their usual topologies and arrangements. (ii) How parameters of the network nodes can affect the reachability and stability of the synchronous state of a network. (iii) Optimizations methods for synchronous networks which can provide low cost architectures with operational precision, reliability and security. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
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Purpose: This paper presents the application of MAGIC-f gel in a three-dimensional dose distribution measurement and its ability to accurately measure the dose distribution from a tomotherapy unit. Methods: A prostate intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) irradiation was simulated in the gel phantom and the treatment was delivered by a TomoTherapy equipment. Dose distribution was evaluated by the R2 distribution measured in magnetic resonance imaging. Results: A high similarity was found by overlapping of isodoses of the dose distribution measured with the gel and expected by the treatment planning system (TPS). Another analysis was done by comparing the relative absorbed dose profiles in the measured and in the expected dose distributions extracted along indicated lines of the volume and the results were also in agreement. The gamma index analysis was also applied to the data and a high pass rate was achieved (88.4% for analysis using 3%/3 mm and of 96.5% using 4%/4 mm). The real three-dimensional analysis compared the dose-volume histograms measured for the planning volumes and expected by the treatment planning, being the results also in good agreement by the overlapping of the curves. Conclusions: These results show that MAGIC-f gel is a promise for tridimensional dose distribution measurements. (C) 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1118/1.4704496]
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In this paper, an alternative skew Student-t family of distributions is studied. It is obtained as an extension of the generalized Student-t (GS-t) family introduced by McDonald and Newey [10]. The extension that is obtained can be seen as a reparametrization of the skewed GS-t distribution considered by Theodossiou [14]. A key element in the construction of such an extension is that it can be stochastically represented as a mixture of an epsilon-skew-power-exponential distribution [1] and a generalized-gamma distribution. From this representation, we can readily derive theoretical properties and easy-to-implement simulation schemes. Furthermore, we study some of its main properties including stochastic representation, moments and asymmetry and kurtosis coefficients. We also derive the Fisher information matrix, which is shown to be nonsingular for some special cases such as when the asymmetry parameter is null, that is, at the vicinity of symmetry, and discuss maximum-likelihood estimation. Simulation studies for some particular cases and real data analysis are also reported, illustrating the usefulness of the extension considered.
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The identification of the factors behind the distribution of plant communities in patched habitats may prove useful towards better understanding how ecosystems function. Plant assemblages are especially important for wetland productivity and provide food and habitat to animals. The present study analyses the distribution of a metacommunity of helophytes and phreatophytes in a wetland complex in oder to identify the effects of habitat configuration on the colonisation process. Ponds with wide vegetated shores and a short distance to a big (> 10 ha) wetland, had higher species richness. The average percentage of surface covered by each species in all the wetlands correlated positively with the number of patches occupied by that species. Moreover, the community presented a nested pattern (species-poor patches were subsets of species-rich patches), and this pattern came about by selective extinction and colonisation processes. We also detected the presence of some idiosyncratic species that did not follow nestedness. Conservation managers should attempt to maximise the vegetated shore width and to reduce the degree of isolation to enhance species richness. Furthermore, a single large and poorly isolated reserve may have the highest level of biodiversity in emergent vegetation species in this wetland complex, however, the particular ecological requirements of idiosyncratic species should also be taken into account when managing this type of community.
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Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Terrestrial amphibians may dehydrate when exposed to low humidity, representing an important factor affecting spatial distribution and community composition. In this study we investigated whether rates of dehydration and rehydration are able to explain the spatial distribution of an anuran community in a Restinga environment at the northern coast of the State of Bahia, Brazil, represented by 11 species distributed in 27 sample units. The environmental data set containing 20 variables was reduced to a few synthetic axes by principal component analysis (PCA). Physiological variables measured were rates of dehydration, rehydration from water, and rehydration from a neutral substrate. Multiple regression analyses were used to test the null hypothesis of no association between the environmental data set (synthetic axes of PCA) and each axis representative of a physiological variable, which was rejected (P < 0.001). Of 15 possible partial regressions only rehydration rate from neutral substrate vs. PC1. and PC2, rehydration rate from water vs. PC1, and dehydration rate vs. PC2 were significant. Our analysis was influenced by a gradient between two different groups of sample units: a beach area with high density of bromeliads and an environment without bodies of water with low density of bromeliads. Species of very specific natural history and morphological characters occur in these environments: Phyllodytes melanomystax and Scinax auratus, species frequently occurring in terrestrial bromeliads, and Ischnocnema paulodutrai, common along the northern coast of Bahia and usually found in forest remnants within environments with low number of bodies of water. In dry environments species with lower rates of dehydration were dominant, whereas species showing greater rates of dehydration were found predominantly in microhabitats with greater moisture or abundance of bodies of water.
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The objective of this work is to predict the temperature distribution of partially submersed umbilical cables under different operating and environmental conditions. The commercial code Fluent (R) was used to simulate the heat transfer and the air fluid flow of part of a vertical umbilical cable near the air-water interface. A free-convective three-dimensional turbulent flow in open-ended vertical annuli was solved. The influence of parameters such as the heat dissipating rate, wind velocity, air temperature and solar radiation was analyzed. The influence of the presence of a radiation shield consisting of a partially submersed cylindrical steel tube was also considered. The air flow and the buoyancy-driven convective heat transfer in the annular region between the steel tube and the umbilical cable were calculated using the standard k-epsilon turbulence model. The radiative heat transfer between the umbilical external surface and the radiation shield was calculated using the Discrete Ordinates model. The results indicate that the influence of a hot environment and intense solar radiation may affect the umbilical cable performance in its dry portion.
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The rate of solvolysis of p-nitrophenyl phosphate (PNPP) dianion in DMSO/water strongly decreases by increasing water concentration. Addition of linear alcohols (methanol, propanol, butanol, pentanol, and hexanol) at constant DMSO/water molar ratio produced an even sharper rate decrease. Alkyl phosphate formation, resulting from PNPP solvolysis in ternary DMSO/water/alcohol mixtures, increased with alcohol concentration and was essentially temperature independent. Methanol and hexanol were the poorest nucleophiles under all conditions. Activation energies and enthalpies for solvolysis in ternary mixtures were similar and entropies varied with alcohol concentration. Taken together these results can be best interpreted in terms of a dissociative mechanism with the intervention of metaphosphate. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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A thorough search for large-scale anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions of cosmic rays detected above 10(18) eV at the Pierre Auger Observatory is presented. This search is performed as a function of both declination and right ascension in several energy ranges above 10(18) eV, and reported in terms of dipolar and quadrupolar coefficients. Within the systematic uncertainties, no significant deviation from isotropy is revealed. Assuming that any cosmic-ray anisotropy is dominated by dipole and quadrupole moments in this energy range, upper limits on their amplitudes are derived. These upper limits allow us to test the origin of cosmic rays above 10(18) eV from stationary Galactic sources densely distributed in the Galactic disk and predominantly emitting light particles in all directions.
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The study of proportions is a common topic in many fields of study. The standard beta distribution or the inflated beta distribution may be a reasonable choice to fit a proportion in most situations. However, they do not fit well variables that do not assume values in the open interval (0, c), 0 < c < 1. For these variables, the authors introduce the truncated inflated beta distribution (TBEINF). This proposed distribution is a mixture of the beta distribution bounded in the open interval (c, 1) and the trinomial distribution. The authors present the moments of the distribution, its scoring vector, and Fisher information matrix, and discuss estimation of its parameters. The properties of the suggested estimators are studied using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the authors present an application of the TBEINF distribution for unemployment insurance data.
Resumo:
Objectives: To estimate prevalence, age-of-onset, gender distribution and identify correlates of lifetime psychiatric disorders in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA). Methods: The Sao Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey assessed psychiatric disorders on a probabilistic sample of 5,037 adult residents in the SPMA, using the World Mental Health Survey Version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Response rate was 81.3%. Results: Lifetime prevalence for any disorder was 44.8%; estimated risk at age 75 was 57.7%; comorbidity was frequent. Major depression, specific phobias and alcohol abuse were the most prevalent across disorders; anxiety disorders were the most frequent class. Early age-of-onset for phobic and impulse-control disorders and later age-of-onset for mood disorders were observed. Women were more likely to have anxiety and mood disorders, whereas men, substance use disorders. Apart from conduct disorders, more frequent in men, there were no gender differences in impulse-control disorders. There was a consistent trend of higher prevalence in the youngest cohorts. Low education level was associated to substance use disorders. Conclusions: Psychiatric disorders are highly prevalent among the general adult population in the SPMA, with frequent comorbidity, early age-of-onset for most disorders, and younger cohorts presenting higher rates of morbidity. Such scenario calls for vigorous public health action.