28 resultados para Multi-model inference
Resumo:
Background: We investigated whether 9p21 polymorphisms are associated with cardiovascular events in a group of 611 patients enrolled in the Medical, Angioplasty or Surgery Study II (MASS II), a randomized trial comparing treatments for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and preserved left ventricular function. Methods: The participants of the MASS II were genotyped for 9p21 polymorphisms (rs10757274, rs2383206, rs10757278 and rs1333049). Survival curves were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank statistic. We assessed the relationship between baseline variables and the composite end-point of death, death from cardiac causes and myocardial infarction using a Cox proportional hazards survival model. Results: We observed significant differences between patients within each polymorphism genotype group for baseline characteristics. The frequency of diabetes was lower in patients carrying GG genotype for rs10757274, rs2383206 and rs10757278 (29.4%, 32.8%, 32.0%) compared to patients carrying AA or AG genotypes (49.1% and 39.2%, p = 0.01; 52.4% and 40.1%, p = 0.01; 47.8% and 37.9%, p = 0.04; respectively). Significant differences in genotype frequencies between double and triple vessel disease patients were observed for the rs10757274, rs10757278 and rs1333049. Finally, there was a higher incidence of overall mortality in patients with the GG genotype for rs2383206 compared to patients with AA and AG genotypes (19.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, respectively; p = 0.04). Moreover, the rs2383206 was still significantly associated with a 1.75-fold increased risk of overall mortality (p = 0.02) even after adjustment of a Cox multivariate model for age, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, smoking and type of coronary anatomy. Conclusions: Our data are in accordance to previous evidence that chromosome 9p21 genetic variation may constitute a genetic modulator in the cardiovascular system in different scenarios. In patients with established CAD, we observed an association between the rs2383206 and higher incidence of overall mortality and death from cardiac causes in patients with multi-vessel CAD.
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Background: Despite advances in supportive care, sepsis-related mortality remains high, especially in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Erythropoietin can protect organs against ischemia and sepsis. This effect has been linked to activation of intracellular survival pathways, although the mechanism remains unclear. Continuous erythropoietin receptor activator (CERA) is an erythropoietin with a unique pharmacologic profile and long half-life. We hypothesized that pretreatment with CERA would be renoprotective in the cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) model of sepsis-induced AKI. Methods: Rats were randomized into three groups: control; CLP; and CLP+CERA (5 mu g/kg body weight, i.p. administered 24 h before CLP). At 24 hours after CLP, we measured creatinine clearance, biochemical variables, and hemodynamic parameters. In kidney tissue, we performed immunoblotting-to quantify expression of the Na-K-2Cl cotransporter (NKCC2), aquaporin 2 (AQP2), Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), erythropoietin receptor (EpoR), and nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kappa B)-and immunohistochemical staining for CD68 (macrophage infiltration). Plasma interleukin (IL)-2, IL-1 beta, IL-6, IL-10, interferon gamma, and tumor necrosis factor alpha were measured by multiplex detection. Results: Pretreatment with CERA preserved creatinine clearance and tubular function, as well as the expression of NKCC2 and AQP2. In addition, CERA maintained plasma lactate at normal levels, as well as preserving plasma levels of transaminases and lactate dehydrogenase. Renal expression of TLR4 and NF-kappa B was lower in CLP+CERA rats than in CLP rats (p<0.05 and p<0.01, respectively), as were CD68-positive cell counts (p<0.01), whereas renal EpoR expression was higher (p<0.05). Plasma levels of all measured cytokines were lower in CLP+CERA rats than in CLP rats. Conclusion: CERA protects against sepsis-induced AKI. This protective effect is, in part, attributable to suppression of the inflammatory response.
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In this paper, we propose a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. This random effect accommodates (or captures) the overdispersion in the counts and induces within-cluster correlation. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the intraclass correlation. Even though numerical integration methods are, in general, required for deriving the marginal models, we obtain the multivariate negative binomial model from a particular parameter setting of the hierarchical model. An iterative process is derived for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the multivariate negative binomial model. Residual analysis is proposed and two applications with real data are given for illustration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A measurement of the multi-strange Xi(-) and Omega(-) baryons and their antiparticles by the ALICE experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is presented for inelastic proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. The transverse momentum (p(T)) distributions were studied at mid-rapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5) in the range of 0.6 < p(T) < 8.5 GeV/c Xi(-) for and Xi(+) baryons, and in the range of 0.8 < P-T < 5 GeV/c for Omega(-) and<(Omega)over bar>(+). Baryons and antibaryons were measured as separate particles and we find that the baryon to antibaryon ratio of both particle species is consistent with unity over the entire range of the measurement. The statistical precision of the current data has allowed us to measure a difference between the mean p(T) of Xi(-) ((Xi) over bar)(+) and Omega(-) ((Omega) over bar (+)). Particle yields, mean pi, and the spectra in the intermediate pi range are not well described by the PYTHIA Perugia 2011 tune Monte Carlo event generator, which has been tuned to reproduce the early LHC data. The discrepancy is largest for Omega(-)((Omega) over bar (+)). This PYTHIA tune approaches the pi spectra of Xi(-) and Xi(+) baryons below p(T) <0.85 GeV/c and describes the Xi(-) and Xi(+) spectra above p(T) > 6.0 GeV/c. We also illustrate the difference between the experimental data and model by comparing the corresponding ratios of (Omega(-) +(Omega) over bar (+))/(Xi(-) + Xi(+)) as a function of transverse mass. (C) 2012 CERN. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: The temporal and geographical diversification of Neotropical insects remains poorly understood because of the complex changes in geological and climatic conditions that occurred during the Cenozoic. To better understand extant patterns in Neotropical biodiversity, we investigated the evolutionary history of three Neotropical swallowtail Troidini genera (Papilionidae). First, DNA-based species delimitation analyses were conducted to assess species boundaries within Neotropical Troidini using an enlarged fragment of the standard barcode gene. Molecularly delineated species were then used to infer a time-calibrated species-level phylogeny based on a three-gene dataset and Bayesian dating analyses. The corresponding chronogram was used to explore their temporal and geographical diversification through distinct likelihood-based methods. Results: The phylogeny for Neotropical Troidini was well resolved and strongly supported. Molecular dating and biogeographic analyses indicate that the extant lineages of Neotropical Troidini have a late Eocene (33-42 Ma) origin in North America. Two independent lineages (Battus and Euryades + Parides) reached South America via the GAARlandia temporary connection, and later became extinct in North America. They only began substantive diversification during the early Miocene in Amazonia. Macroevolutionary analysis supports the "museum model" of diversification, rather than Pleistocene refugia, as the best explanation for the diversification of these lineages. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that: (i) current Neotropical biodiversity may have originated ex situ; (ii) the GAARlandia bridge was important in facilitating invasions of South America; (iii) colonization of Amazonia initiated the crown diversification of these swallowtails; and (iv) Amazonia is not only a species-rich region but also acted as a sanctuary for the dynamics of this diversity. In particular, Amazonia probably allowed the persistence of old lineages and contributed to the steady accumulation of diversity over time with constant net diversification rates, a result that contrasts with previous studies on other South American butterflies.
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Binary and ternary systems of Ni2+, Zn2+, and Pb2+ were investigated at initial metal concentrations of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 mM as competitive adsorbates using Arthrospira platensis and Chlorella vulgaris as biosorbents. The experimental results were evaluated in terms of equilibrium sorption capacity and metal removal efficiency and fitted to the multi-component Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. The pseudo second order model of Ho and McKay described well the adsorption kinetics, and the FT-IR spectroscopy confirmed metal binding to both biomasses. Ni2+ and Zn2+ interference on Pb2+ sorption was lower than the contrary, likely due to biosorbent preference to Pb. In general, the higher the total initial metal concentration, the lower the adsorption capacity. The results of this study demonstrated that dry biomass of C. vulgaris behaved as better biosorbent than A. platensis and suggest its use as an effective alternative sorbent for metal removal from wastewater. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.
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This paper considers likelihood-based inference for the family of power distributions. Widely applicable results are presented which can be used to conduct inference for all three parameters of the general location-scale extension of the family. More specific results are given for the special case of the power normal model. The analysis of a large data set, formed from density measurements for a certain type of pollen, illustrates the application of the family and the results for likelihood-based inference. Throughout, comparisons are made with analogous results for the direct parametrisation of the skew-normal distribution.
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The uplift capacity of helical anchors normally increases with the number of helical plates. The rate of capacity gain is variable, considering that the disturbance caused by the anchor installation is generally more pronounced in the soil mass above the upper plates than above the lower plates, because the upper soil layers are penetrated more times. The present investigation examines the effect of the number of helices on the performance of helical anchors in sand, based on the results of centrifuge model tests. Uplift loading tests were performed on 12 different types of piles installed in two containers of dry sand prepared with different densities. The measured fractions of the uplift capacity related to each individual helical plate of multi-helix anchors were compared with the fractions predicted by the individual bearing method. The results of this investigation indicate that in double- and triple-helix anchors, the contributions of the second and third plate to the total anchor uplift capacity decreased with the increase of sand relative density and plate diameter. In addition, these experiments demonstrated that the variation of the anchor load-displacement behavior with the number of helices also depends on these parameters.
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In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.
Resumo:
Background UCP2 (uncoupling protein 2) plays an important role in cardiovascular diseases and recent studies have suggested that the A55V polymorphism can cause UCP2 dysfunction. The main aim was to investigate the association of A55V polymorphism with cardiovascular events in a group of 611 patients enrolled in the Medical, Angioplasty or Surgery Study II (MASS II), a randomized trial comparing treatments for patients with coronary artery disease and preserved left ventricular function. Methods The participants of the MASS II were genotyped for the A55V polymorphism using allele-specific PCR assay. Survival curves were calculated with the Kaplan–Meier method and evaluated with the log-rank statistic. The relationship between baseline variables and the composite end-point of cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), refractory angina requiring revascularization and cerebrovascular accident were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards survival model. Results There were no significant differences for baseline variables according genotypes. After 2 years of follow-up, dysglycemic patients harboring the VV genotype had higher occurrence of AMI (p=0.026), Death+AMI (p=0.033), new revascularization intervention (p=0.009) and combined events (p=0.037) as compared with patients carrying other genotypes. This association was not evident in normoglycemic patients. Conclusions These findings support the hypothesis that A55V polymorphism is associated with UCP2 functional alterations that increase the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with previous coronary artery disease and dysglycemia.
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This study deals with the reduction of the stiffness in precast concrete structural elements of multi-storey buildings to analyze global stability. Having reviewed the technical literature, this paper present indications of stiffness reduction in different codes, standards, and recommendations and compare these to the values found in the present study. The structural model analyzed in this study was constructed with finite elements using ANSYS® software. Physical Non-Linearity (PNL) was considered in relation to the diagrams M x N x 1/r, and Geometric Non-Linearity (GNL) was calculated following the Newton-Raphson method. Using a typical precast concrete structure with multiple floors and a semi-rigid beam-to-column connection, expressions for a stiffness reduction coefficient are presented. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: the reduction coefficients obtained from the diagram M x N x 1/r differ from standards that use a simplified consideration of PNL; the stiffness reduction coefficient for columns in the arrangements analyzed were approximately 0.5 to 0.6; and the variation of values found for stiffness reduction coefficient in concrete beams, which were subjected to the effects of creep with linear coefficients from 0 to 3, ranged from 0.45 to 0.2 for positive bending moments and 0.3 to 0.2 for negative bending moments.