Ground-level ozone prediction using a neural network model based on meteorological variables and applied to the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo

A neural network model to predict ozone concentration in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area was developed, based on average values of meteorological variables in the morning (8:00-12:00 hr) and afternoon (13:00-17: 00 hr) periods. Outputs are the maximum and average ozone concentrations in the afternoon (12:00-17:00 hr). The correlation coefficient between computed and measured values was 0.82 and 0.88 for the maximum and average ozone concentration, respectively. The model presented good performance as a prediction tool for the maximum ozone concentration. For prediction periods from 1 to 5 days 0 to 23% failures (95% confidence) were obtained.

Cannabidiol, a non-psychotropic plant-derived cannabinoid, decreases inflammation in a murine model of acute lung injury: Role for the adenosine A(2A) receptor

Acute lung injury is an inflammatory condition for which treatment is mainly supportive because effective therapies have not been developed. Cannabidiol, a non-psychotropic cannabinoid component of marijuana (Cannabis sativa), has potent immunosuppressive and anti-inflammatory properties. Therefore, we investigated the possible anti-inflammatory effect of cannabidiol in a murine model of acute lung injury. Analysis of total inflammatory cells and differential in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was used to characterize leukocyte migration into the lungs; myeloperoxidase activity of lung tissue and albumin concentration in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid were analyzed by colorimetric assays; cytokine/chemokine production in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was also analyzed by Cytometric Bead Arrays and Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). A single dose of cannabidiol (20 mg/kg) administered prior to the induction of LPS (lipopolysaccharide)-induced acute lung injury decreases leukocyte (specifically neutrophil) migration into the lungs, albumin concentration in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, myeloperoxidase activity in the lung tissue, and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF and IL-6) and chemokines (MCP-1 and MIP-2) 1, 2, and 4 days after the induction of LPS-induced acute lung injury. Additionally, adenosine A(2A) receptor is involved in the anti-inflammatory effects of cannabidiol on LPS-induced acute lung injury because ZM241385 (4-(2[7-Amino-2-(2-furyl)[1,2,4] triazolo[2,3-a][1,3,5]triazin-5-ylamino]ethyl) phenol) (a highly selective antagonist of adenosine A(2A) receptor) abrogated all of the anti-inflammatory effects of cannabidiol previously described. Thus, we show that cannabidiol has anti-inflammatory effects in a murine model of acute lung injury and that this effect is most likely associated with an increase in the extracellular adenosine offer and signaling through adenosine A(2A) receptor. (C) 2012 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

CARBON MARKET AND INSTITUTIONS: OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SEARCH OF A NEW MODEL FOR DEVELOPMENT

Seeking alternatives for the economic system to face the several crises it has gone through lately (electrical power, cultural, financing and technological) brought about a new market involving the Kyoto Protocol signatory countries: the carbon market. The present article aims at assessing the carbon market institutional issue in Brazil by identifying the risks and opportunities inherent to the institutional agent characteristics and to that market rules. The research methodology was bibliographic and based on the analysis of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios and Bolsa Mercantil de Valores) contents. Its theoretical basis rests on concepts of the institution and the new institutional economy. The results show that in spite of the risks and institutional problems it involves, the carbon market is promising due to the opportunities create by new technologies and energies developed to achieve and sustain the capitalist system new cycle, addressed to produce a clean development.

Stochastic lattice model describing a vector-borne disease

We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).

A mathematical model for optimizing the indications of liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract Background The criteria for organ sharing has developed a system that prioritizes liver transplantation (LT) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who have the highest risk of wait-list mortality. In some countries this model allows patients only within the Milan Criteria (MC, defined by the presence of a single nodule up to 5 cm, up to three nodules none larger than 3 cm, with no evidence of extrahepatic spread or macrovascular invasion) to be evaluated for liver transplantation. This police implies that some patients with HCC slightly more advanced than those allowed by the current strict selection criteria will be excluded, even though LT for these patients might be associated with acceptable long-term outcomes. Methods We propose a mathematical approach to study the consequences of relaxing the MC for patients with HCC that do not comply with the current rules for inclusion in the transplantation candidate list. We consider overall 5-years survival rates compatible with the ones reported in the literature. We calculate the best strategy that would minimize the total mortality of the affected population, that is, the total number of people in both groups of HCC patients that die after 5 years of the implementation of the strategy, either by post-transplantation death or by death due to the basic HCC. We illustrate the above analysis with a simulation of a theoretical population of 1,500 HCC patients with tumor size exponentially. The parameter λ obtained from the literature was equal to 0.3. As the total number of patients in these real samples was 327 patients, this implied in an average size of 3.3 cm and a 95% confidence interval of [2.9; 3.7]. The total number of available livers to be grafted was assumed to be 500. Results With 1500 patients in the waiting list and 500 grafts available we simulated the total number of deaths in both transplanted and non-transplanted HCC patients after 5 years as a function of the tumor size of transplanted patients. The total number of deaths drops down monotonically with tumor size, reaching a minimum at size equals to 7 cm, increasing from thereafter. With tumor size equals to 10 cm the total mortality is equal to the 5 cm threshold of the Milan criteria. Conclusion We concluded that it is possible to include patients with tumor size up to 10 cm without increasing the total mortality of this population.

Model-based reuse for crosscutting frameworks: assessing reuse and maintenance effort

Abstract Background Over the last years, a number of researchers have investigated how to improve the reuse of crosscutting concerns. New possibilities have emerged with the advent of aspect-oriented programming, and many frameworks were designed considering the abstractions provided by this new paradigm. We call this type of framework Crosscutting Frameworks (CF), as it usually encapsulates a generic and abstract design of one crosscutting concern. However, most of the proposed CFs employ white-box strategies in their reuse process, requiring two mainly technical skills: (i) knowing syntax details of the programming language employed to build the framework and (ii) being aware of the architectural details of the CF and its internal nomenclature. Also, another problem is that the reuse process can only be initiated as soon as the development process reaches the implementation phase, preventing it from starting earlier. Method In order to solve these problems, we present in this paper a model-based approach for reusing CFs which shields application engineers from technical details, letting him/her concentrate on what the framework really needs from the application under development. To support our approach, two models are proposed: the Reuse Requirements Model (RRM) and the Reuse Model (RM). The former must be used to describe the framework structure and the later is in charge of supporting the reuse process. As soon as the application engineer has filled in the RM, the reuse code can be automatically generated. Results We also present here the result of two comparative experiments using two versions of a Persistence CF: the original one, whose reuse process is based on writing code, and the new one, which is model-based. The first experiment evaluated the productivity during the reuse process, and the second one evaluated the effort of maintaining applications developed with both CF versions. The results show the improvement of 97% in the productivity; however little difference was perceived regarding the effort for maintaining the required application. Conclusion By using the approach herein presented, it was possible to conclude the following: (i) it is possible to automate the instantiation of CFs, and (ii) the productivity of developers are improved as long as they use a model-based instantiation approach.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

Study of surface free energy on a lattice-gas model applied to Liquid bridge

The pulmonary crackling and the formation of liquid bridges are problems that for centuries have been attracting the attention of scientists. In order to study these phenomena, it was developed a canonical cubic lattice-gas­ like model to explain the rupture of liquid bridges in lung airways [A. Alencar et al., 2006, PRE]. Here, we further develop this model and add entropy analysis to study thermodynamic properties, such as free energy and force. The simulations were performed using the Monte Carlo method with Metropolis algorithm. The exchange between gas and liquid particles were performed randomly according to the Kawasaki dynamics and weighted by the Boltzmann factor. Each particle, which can be solid (s), liquid (l) or gas (g), has 26 neighbors: 6 + 12 + 8, with distances 1, √2 and √3, respectively. The energy of a lattice's site m is calculated by the following expression: Em = ∑k=126 Ji(m)j(k) in witch (i, j) = g, l or s. Specifically, it was studied the surface free energy of the liquid bridge, trapped between two planes, when its height is changed. For that, was considered two methods. First, just the internal energy was calculated. Then was considered the entropy. It was fond no difference in the surface free energy between this two methods. We calculate the liquid bridge force between the two planes using the numerical surface free energy. This force is strong for small height, and decreases as the distance between the two planes, height, is increased. The liquid-gas system was also characterized studying the variation of internal energy and heat capacity with the temperature. For that, was performed simulation with the same proportion of liquid and gas particle, but different lattice size. The scale of the liquid-gas system was also studied, for low temperature, using different values to the interaction Jij.

Experimental model identification of open-frame underwater vehicles

Most of the works published on hydrodynamic parameter identification of open-frame underwater vehicles focus their attention almost exclusively on good coherence between simulated and measured responses, giving less importance to the determination of “actual values” for hydrodynamic parameters. To gain insight into hydrodynamic parameter experimental identification of open-frame underwater vehicles, an experimental identification procedure is proposed here to determine parameters of uncoupled and coupled models. The identification procedure includes: (i) a prior estimation of actual values of the forces/torques applied to the vehicle, (ii) identification of drag parameters from constant velocity tests and (iii) identification of inertia and coupling parameters from oscillatory tests; at this stage, the estimated values of drag parameter obtained in item (ii) are used. The procedure proposed here was used to identify the hydrodynamic parameters of LAURS—an unmanned underwater vehicle developed at the University of São Paulo. The thruster–thruster and thruster–hull interactions and the advance velocity of the vehicle are shown to have a strong impact on the efficiency of thrusters appended to open-frame underwater vehicles, especially for high advance velocities. Results of tests with excitation in 1-DOF and 3-DOF are reported and discussed, showing the feasibility of the developed procedure.