Sets of probability distributions, independence, and convexity

This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.

A 15-year study on the treatment of undernourished children at a nutrition rehabilitation centre (CREN), Brazil

Objective: To build a life table and determine the factors related to the time of treatment of undernourished children at a nutrition rehabilitation centre (CREN), Sao Paulo, Brazil. Design: Nutritional status was assessed from weight-for-age, height-for-age and BMI-for-age Z-scores, while neuropsychomotor development was classified according to the milestones of childhood development. Life tables, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox multiple regression models were employed in data analysis. Setting: CREN (Centre of Nutritional Recovery and Education), Sao Paulo, Brazil. Subjects: Undernourished children (n 228) from the southern slums of Sao Paulo who had received treatment at CREN under a day-hospital regime between the years 1994 and 2009. Results: The Kaplan-Meier curves of survival analysis showed statistically significant differences in the periods of treatment at CREN between children presenting different degrees of neuropsychomotor development (log-rank = 6.621; P = 0.037). Estimates based on the multivariate Cox model revealed that children aged >= 24 months at the time of admission exhibited a lower probability of nutritional rehabilitation (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.49; P = 0.046) at the end of the period compared with infants aged up 12 months. Children presenting slow development were better rehabilitated in comparison with those exhibiting adequate evolution (HR = 4.48; P = 0.023). No significant effects of sex, degree of undernutrition or birth weight on the probability of nutritional rehabilitation were found. Conclusions: Age and neuropsychomotor developmental status at the time of admission to CREN are critical factors in determining the duration of treatment.

CARBON MARKET AND INSTITUTIONS: OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SEARCH OF A NEW MODEL FOR DEVELOPMENT

Seeking alternatives for the economic system to face the several crises it has gone through lately (electrical power, cultural, financing and technological) brought about a new market involving the Kyoto Protocol signatory countries: the carbon market. The present article aims at assessing the carbon market institutional issue in Brazil by identifying the risks and opportunities inherent to the institutional agent characteristics and to that market rules. The research methodology was bibliographic and based on the analysis of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios and Bolsa Mercantil de Valores) contents. Its theoretical basis rests on concepts of the institution and the new institutional economy. The results show that in spite of the risks and institutional problems it involves, the carbon market is promising due to the opportunities create by new technologies and energies developed to achieve and sustain the capitalist system new cycle, addressed to produce a clean development.

Conceptual and Experimental Directions for Analyzing Superstition in the Behavioral Analysis of Culture

This paper examines the notions of illusions and beliefs, discussing some advantages offered by the study of these phenomena based on the concepts of superstitious behavior, superstition and superstitious rules. Among these advantages, the study highlights the possibility of researching these relationships in different levels of analysis, not only at the individual level, focusing on cultural level, this paper presents Cultural Materialism as an anthropological proposal for the consideration of these phenomena on the cultural level and based on adaptive principles, besides it discusses the experimental analysis of cultural practices and points Out how they can help to understand how people in groups behave such as they are being effective in the control of the surrounding environment (when, sometimes, in fact, they are not). The paper offers an integrative proposal which makes easier behavior analysts' dialogue with social psychologists and offers some routes from cultural analysis of illusions and beliefs.

Guidelines for the Development of Comprehensive Care Centers for Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia: Guidance from the CARES Foundation Initiative

Patients with rare and complex diseases such as congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) often receive fragmented and inadequate care unless efforts are coordinated among providers. Translating the concepts of the medical home and comprehensive health care for individuals with CAH offers many benefits for the affected individuals and their families. This manuscript represents the recommendations of a 1.5 day meeting held in September 2009 to discuss the ideal goals for comprehensive care centers for newborns, infants, children, adolescents, and adults with CAH. Participants included pediatric endocrinologists, internal medicine and reproductive endocrinologists, pediatric urologists, pediatric surgeons, psychologists, and pediatric endocrine nurse educators. One unique aspect of this meeting was the active participation of individuals personally affected by CAH as patients or parents of patients. Representatives of Health Research and Services Administration (HRSA), New York-Mid-Atlantic Consortium for Genetics and Newborn Screening Services (NYMAC), and National Newborn Screening and Genetics Resource Center (NNSGRC) also participated. Thus, this document should serve as a "roadmap" for the development phases of comprehensive care centers (CCC) for individuals and families affected by CAH.

The double task of preventing malnutrition and overweight: a quasi-experimental community-based trial

Background: The Maternal-Child Pastoral is a volunteer-based community organization of the Dominican Republic that works with families to improve child survival and development. A program that promotes key practices of maternal and child care through meetings with pregnant women and home visits to promote child growth and development was designed and implemented. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the program on nutritional status indicators of children in the first two years of age. Methods: A quasi-experimental design was used, with groups paired according to a socioeconomic index, comparing eight geographical areas of intervention with eight control areas. The intervention was carried out by lay health volunteers. Mothers in the intervention areas received home visits each month and participated in a group activity held biweekly during pregnancy and monthly after birth. The primary outcomes were length and body mass index for age. Statistical analyses were based on linear and logistic regression models. Results: 196 children in the intervention group and 263 in the control group were evaluated. The intervention did not show statistically significant effects on length, but point estimates found were in the desired direction: mean difference 0.21 (95%CI −0.02; 0.44) for length-for-age Z-score and OR 0.50 (95%CI 0.22; 1.10) for stunting. Significant reductions of BMI-for-age Z-score (−0.31, 95%CI −0.49; -0.12) and of BMI-for-age > 85th percentile (0.43, 95%CI 0.23; 0.77) were observed. The intervention showed positive effects in some indicators of intermediary factors such as growth monitoring, health promotion activities, micronutrient supplementation, exclusive breastfeeding and complementary feeding. Conclusions: Despite finding effect measures pointing to effects in the desired direction related to malnutrition, we could only detect a reduction in the risk of overweight attributable to the intervention. The findings related to obesity prevention may be of interest in the context of the nutritional transition. Given the size of this study, the results are encouraging and we believe a larger study is warranted.

Records of migration in the exoplanet configurations

When compared to our Solar System, many exoplanet systems exhibit quite unusual planet configurations; some of these are hot Jupiters, which orbit their central stars with periods of a few days, others are resonant systems composed of two or more planets with commensurable orbital periods. It has been suggested that these configurations can be the result of a migration processes originated by tidal interactions of the planets with disks and central stars. The process known as planet migration occurs due to dissipative forces which affect the planetary semi-major axes and cause the planets to move towards to, or away from, the central star. In this talk, we present possible signatures of planet migration in the distribution of the hot Jupiters and resonant exoplanet pairs. For this task, we develop a semi-analytical model to describe the evolution of the migrating planetary pair, based on the fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Our approach is based on an analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces needs to be invoked. We show that, under assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the stationary solutions of the conservative problem (Birkhoff, Dynamical systems, 1966). The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the roper frequencies of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states, and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.