Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Biogeographic and diversification patterns of Neotropical Troidini butterflies (Papilionidae) support a museum model of diversity dynamics for Amazonia

Background: The temporal and geographical diversification of Neotropical insects remains poorly understood because of the complex changes in geological and climatic conditions that occurred during the Cenozoic. To better understand extant patterns in Neotropical biodiversity, we investigated the evolutionary history of three Neotropical swallowtail Troidini genera (Papilionidae). First, DNA-based species delimitation analyses were conducted to assess species boundaries within Neotropical Troidini using an enlarged fragment of the standard barcode gene. Molecularly delineated species were then used to infer a time-calibrated species-level phylogeny based on a three-gene dataset and Bayesian dating analyses. The corresponding chronogram was used to explore their temporal and geographical diversification through distinct likelihood-based methods. Results: The phylogeny for Neotropical Troidini was well resolved and strongly supported. Molecular dating and biogeographic analyses indicate that the extant lineages of Neotropical Troidini have a late Eocene (33-42 Ma) origin in North America. Two independent lineages (Battus and Euryades + Parides) reached South America via the GAARlandia temporary connection, and later became extinct in North America. They only began substantive diversification during the early Miocene in Amazonia. Macroevolutionary analysis supports the "museum model" of diversification, rather than Pleistocene refugia, as the best explanation for the diversification of these lineages. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that: (i) current Neotropical biodiversity may have originated ex situ; (ii) the GAARlandia bridge was important in facilitating invasions of South America; (iii) colonization of Amazonia initiated the crown diversification of these swallowtails; and (iv) Amazonia is not only a species-rich region but also acted as a sanctuary for the dynamics of this diversity. In particular, Amazonia probably allowed the persistence of old lineages and contributed to the steady accumulation of diversity over time with constant net diversification rates, a result that contrasts with previous studies on other South American butterflies.

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Systematics of the Oswaldoi Complex (Anopheles, Nyssorhynchus) in South America

Abstract Background Effective malaria control relies on accurate identification of those Anopheles mosquitoes responsible for the transmission of Plasmodium parasites. Anopheles oswaldoi s.l. has been incriminated as a malaria vector in Colombia and some localities in Brazil, but not ubiquitously throughout its Neotropical range. This evidence together with variable morphological characters and genetic differences supports that An. oswaldoi s.l. compromises a species complex. The recent fully integrated redescription of An. oswaldoi s.s. provides a solid taxonomic foundation from which to molecularly determine other members of the complex. Methods DNA sequences of the Second Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS2 - rDNA) (n = 192) and the barcoding region of the Cytochrome Oxidase I gene (COI - mtDNA) (n = 110) were generated from 255 specimens of An. oswaldoi s.l. from 33 localities: Brazil (8 localities, including the lectotype series of An. oswaldoi), Ecuador (4), Colombia (17), Trinidad and Tobago (1), and Peru (3). COI sequences were analyzed employing the Kimura-two-parameter model (K2P), Bayesian analysis (MrBayes), Mixed Yule-Coalescent model (MYC, for delimitation of clusters) and TCS genealogies. Results Separate and combined analysis of the COI and ITS2 data sets unequivocally supported four separate species: two previously determined (An. oswaldoi s.s. and An. oswaldoi B) and two newly designated species in the Oswaldoi Complex (An. oswaldoi A and An. sp. nr. konderi). The COI intra- and inter-specific genetic distances for the four taxa were non-overlapping, averaging 0.012 (0.007 to 0.020) and 0.052 (0.038 to 0.064), respectively. The concurring four clusters delineated by MrBayes and MYC, and four independent TCS networks, strongly confirmed their separate species status. In addition, An. konderi of Sallum should be regarded as unique with respect to the above. Despite initially being included as an outgroup taxon, this species falls well within the examined taxa, suggesting a combined analysis of these taxa would be most appropriate. Conclusions: Through novel data and retrospective comparison of available COI and ITS2 DNA sequences, evidence is shown to support the separate species status of An. oswaldoi s.s., An. oswaldoi A and An. oswaldoi B, and at least two species in the closely related An. konderi complex (An. sp. nr. konderi, An. konderi of Sallum). Although An. oswaldoi s.s. has never been implicated in malaria transmission, An. oswaldoi B is a confirmed vector and the new species An. oswaldoi A and An. sp. nr. konderi are circumstantially implicated, most likely acting as secondary vectors.