Optimization of Large-Scale Hydrothermal System Operation

This paper presents the development of a mathematical model to optimize the management and operation of the Brazilian hydrothermal system. The system consists of a large set of individual hydropower plants and a set of aggregated thermal plants. The energy generated in the system is interconnected by a transmission network so it can be transmitted to centers of consumption throughout the country. The optimization model offered is capable of handling different types of constraints, such as interbasin water transfers, water supply for various purposes, and environmental requirements. Its overall objective is to produce energy to meet the country's demand at a minimum cost. Called HIDROTERM, the model integrates a database with basic hydrological and technical information to run the optimization model, and provides an interface to manage the input and output data. The optimization model uses the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) package and can invoke different linear as well as nonlinear programming solvers. The optimization model was applied to the Brazilian hydrothermal system, one of the largest in the world. The system is divided into four subsystems with 127 active hydropower plants. Preliminary results under different scenarios of inflow, demand, and installed capacity demonstrate the efficiency and utility of the model. From this and other case studies in Brazil, the results indicate that the methodology developed is suitable to different applications, such as planning operation, capacity expansion, and operational rule studies, and trade-off analysis among multiple water users. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000149. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Low Apgar scores at 5 minutes in a low risk population: maternal and obstetrical factors and postnatal outcome

Objective: To evaluate the association between Apgar scores of less than seven at five minutes (AS(5min) < 7) and antenatal factors and postnatal outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort and case-control study of 27,252 consecutive term newborns in a low risk obstetrical population between January 2003 and December 2010. Maternal and infant databases were reviewed from all cases with AS(5min) < 7 (n = 121; 0.4%) and 363 cases with AS(5min) >= 7 at 5 minutes who were randomly selected by a computer program. The main outcomes were neonatal death, newborn respiratory distress, need for orotracheal intubation and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and hypoxic-ischemic-encephalopathy. Results: After multiple regression analysis, repeated late decelerations on cardiotocography (OR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.4-4.1) and prolonged second stage of labor (OR: 3.3; 95% CI: 1.3-8.3) were associated with AS(5min) < 7, as well as neonatal respiratory distress (OR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.3-6.9), orotracheal intubation (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.2-4.8), need for NICU (OR: 9.5; 95% CI: 6.7-16.8), and hypoxic-ischemic-encephalopathy (OR: 14.1; 95% CI: 3.6-54.7). No other antenatal factors were associated with AS(5min) < 7 (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Repeated late decelerations and prolonged second stage of labor in the low-risk population are predictors of AS(5min) < 7, a situation associated with increased risk of neonatal respiratory distress, need for mechanical ventilatory support and NICU, and hypoxic-ischemic-encephalopathy.

Prediction of the rate of decline in fetal hemoglobin levels between first and second transfusions in red cell alloimmune disease

Objective To determine variables that predict the rate of decline in fetal hemoglobin levels in alloimmune disease. Method Retrospective review of singleton pregnancies that underwent first and second intrauterine transfusions for treatment of fetal anemia because of maternal Rh alloimmunization in a tertiary referral center. Results Forty-one first intrauterine transfusions were performed at 26.1?weeks (standard deviation, SD, 4.6), mean volume of blood transfused was 44.4?mL (SD 23.5) and estimated feto-placental volume expansion was 51.3% (SD 14.5%). Between first and second transfusion, hemoglobin levels reduced on average 0.40?g/dl/day (SD 0.25). Stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrated that this rate significantly correlated with hemoglobin levels after the first transfusion, the interval between both procedures, and middle cerebral artery systolic velocity before the second transfusion. Conclusion The rate of decline in fetal hemoglobin levels between first and second transfusions in alloimmune disease can be predicted by a combination of hemoglobin levels after the first transfusion, interval between both procedures, and middle cerebral artery systolic velocity before the second transfusion. (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gene by environment QTL mapping through multiple trait analyses in blood pressure salt-sensitivity: identification of a novel QTL in rat chromosome 5

Background The genetic mechanisms underlying interindividual blood pressure variation reflect the complex interplay of both genetic and environmental variables. The current standard statistical methods for detecting genes involved in the regulation mechanisms of complex traits are based on univariate analysis. Few studies have focused on the search for and understanding of quantitative trait loci responsible for gene × environmental interactions or multiple trait analysis. Composite interval mapping has been extended to multiple traits and may be an interesting approach to such a problem. Methods We used multiple-trait analysis for quantitative trait locus mapping of loci having different effects on systolic blood pressure with NaCl exposure. Animals studied were 188 rats, the progenies of an F2 rat intercross between the hypertensive and normotensive strain, genotyped in 179 polymorphic markers across the rat genome. To accommodate the correlational structure from measurements taken in the same animals, we applied univariate and multivariate strategies for analyzing the data. Results We detected a new quantitative train locus on a region close to marker R589 in chromosome 5 of the rat genome, not previously identified through serial analysis of individual traits. In addition, we were able to justify analytically the parametric restrictions in terms of regression coefficients responsible for the gain in precision with the adopted analytical approach. Conclusion Future work should focus on fine mapping and the identification of the causative variant responsible for this quantitative trait locus signal. The multivariable strategy might be valuable in the study of genetic determinants of interindividual variation of antihypertensive drug effectiveness.

Dental caries associated factors in 12 year-old schoolchildren from a municipality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Objective To analyze the possible association between dental caries, fluorosis and the need for treatment in 12 year-old schoolchildren and the socioeconomic conditions of parents/guardians in the city of Franca, in the state of São Paulo. Methods A random sample of schoolchildren aged 12 was obtained from the school records in Franca, using a systematic random technique. The epidemiological survey was carried out by a single calibrated examiner, on 258 public and private schoolchildren in order to obtain the prevalence of dental caries, the need for treatment and the severity of dental fluorosis. Parents/guardians were also interviewed to assess their socioeconomic conditions (education and per capita income). We used multiple correlation analysis to investigate associations between category variables. Results It was possible to identify two distinct groups, with associations between the variables: the first group, represented by schoolchildren with average prevalence of caries, need for treatment, low level of parental education and income; and a second group represented by schoolchildren with low prevalence of caries, no need for treatment, high parental education and income. The two dimensions explained approximately 35% of total inertia. The factors within each group are related. Conclusion High income and parental education are associated with the low prevalence of dental caries but there is no association with dental fluorosis.

Petroleum contamination impact on macrobenthic communities under the influence of an oil refinery: Integrating chemical and biological multivariate data

Petroleum contamination impact on macrobenthic communities in the northeast portion of Todos os Santos Bay was assessed combining in multivariate analyses, chemical parameters such as aliphatic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon indices and concentration ratios with benthic ecological parameters. Sediment samples were taken in August 2000 with a 0.05 m(2) van Veen grab at 28 sampling locations. The predominance of n-alkanes with more than 24 carbons, together with CPI values close to one, and the fact that most of the stations showed UCM/resolved aliphatic hydrocarbons ratios (UCM:R) higher than two, indicated a high degree of anthropogenic contribution, the presence of terrestrial plant detritus, petroleum products and evidence of chronic oil pollution. The indices used to determine the origin of PAH indicated the occurrence of a petrogenic contribution. A pyrolytic contribution constituted mainly by fossil fuel combustion derived PAH was also observed. The results of the stepwise multiple regression analysis performed with chemical data and benthic ecological descriptors demonstrated that not only total PAH concentrations but also specific concentration ratios or indices such as >= C24:< C24, An/178 and Fl/Fl + Py, are determining the structure of benthic communities within the study area. According to the BIO-ENV results petroleum related variables seemed to have a main influence on macrofauna community structure. The PCA ordination performed with the chemical data resulted in the formation of three groups of stations. The decrease in macrofauna density, number of species and diversity from groups III to I seemed to be related to the occurrence of high aliphatic hydrocarbon and PAH concentrations associated with fine sediments. Our results showed that macrobenthic communities in the northeast portion of Todos os Santos Bay are subjected to the impact of chronic oil pollution as was reflected by the reduction in the number of species and diversity. These results emphasise the importance to combine in multivariate approaches not only total hydrocarbon concentrations but also indices, isomer pair ratios and specific compound concentrations with biological data to improve the assessment of anthropogenic impact on marine ecosystems. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decline in dental caries among 12-year-old children in Brazil, 1980-2005

Objectives This study was conducted to determine changes in values on the decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) index in 12-year-old children in Brazil between 1980 and 2005, and to correlate DMFT values with human development index (HDI) values, time, population size of municipality and fluoridation of the water supply. Methods The present study represents a retrospective ecological study using secondary data from epidemiological surveys published in indexed journals, as well as data obtained from epidemiological official surveys carried out in Brazil in 1986, 1996 and 2003, and in the State of Sao Paulo in 1998 and 2002. Units of study were represented by Brazilian municipalities holding average DMFT index values for 12-year-old children. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the correlations among DMFT and HDI values, and time, population size and fluoridation of the water supply. Results The final database included 550 records of DMFT values in 428 different towns. Regression analysis showed statistically significant correlations between DMFT index values and time (P < 0.001), fluoridation of the water supply (P < 0.001) and size of municipality (P < 0.001). Estimated mean DMFT index values were 8.36 in 1980, 6.08 in 1985, 4.45 in 1990, 3.29 in 1995, 2.46 in 2000 and 1.86 in 2005. Conclusions Data showed a significant decrease in dental caries across the entire country, with an average reduction of 25% occurring every 5 years. General trends indicated that a reduction in DMFT index values occurred over time, that a further reduction in DMFT index values occurred when a municipality fluoridated its water supply, and mean DMFT index values were lower in larger than in smaller municipalities.

Quality of life among Brazilian women living with HIV/AIDS

The purpose of the present study was to assess quality of life (QoL) in Brazilian women living with HIV/AIDS, according to the World Health Organization Quality of Life HIV-BREF (WHOQoL-HIV-BREF) domains. A quantitative-based, cross-sectional, analytical study was carried out in healthcare centers specialized in assisting people living with HIV/AIDS, located in a municipality of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. One hundred and six women of age 18 years or more, users of the public healthcare system, participated in the study. Socio-demographic and clinical variables were collected using a specific questionnaire. Quality of life related variables were collected by means of the WHOQoL-HIV-BREF instrument. As per the QoL domains, study results show that the Spirituality domain reached a standardized mean score of 65.7, followed by the Physical (64.7), Psychological (60.6), Social Relationships (59.5), Independence (58.6), and Environment (54.5) domains. Results of the multiple regression analysis indicate that the women's employment or retirement, income greater than the minimum wage, and higher educational level were associated with a higher standardized mean score of QoL. However, recent HIV/AIDS diagnosis and exposure to antiretroviral agents for a period shorter than two years were negatively associated with QoL. It is critical that public policies favor an all-embracing social inclusion of these women, thus promoting better social conditions. Counseling, clinical follow-up immediately after the infection diagnosis, and initiation of antiretroviral treatment are crucial moments in the lives of these individuals.

Fetal venous Doppler in pregnancies with placental dysfunction and correlation with pH at birth

Objectives: To determine the correlation between ph at birth and venous Doppler parameters in pregnancies with placental dysfunction. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of 58 pregnancies with the diagnosis of placental dysfunction between 26 and 34 weeks of gestation. Inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies, abnormal umbilical artery (UA) Doppler, fetal growth restriction diagnosed by estimated fetal weight <10th centile for gestational age, intact membranes, and absence of fetal congenital abnormalities. The Doppler measurements were the following: UA pulsatility index (PI), ductus venosus (DV) pulsatility index for veins (PIV), intra-abdominal umbilical vein (UV) time-averaged maximum velocity (TAMxV) and blood flow and left portal vein (LPV) time-averaged maximum velocity (TAMxV) and blood flow. All Doppler parameters were transformed into z-scores (SD values from the mean) according to normative references. Results: The UA pH at birth showed a negative significant correlation with the DV-PIV (p = 0.004) and the DV-PIV z-score (p = 0.004), while LPV TAMxV (p = 0.004), LPV TAMxV z-score (p = 0.002), LPV blood flow (p = 0.01), LPV blood flow normalized (p = 0.04) and UV blood flow (p = 0.04) positively correlated with pH at birth. Multiple regression analysis was performed and the DV-PIV z-score was the variable that independently correlated with pH at birth (p = 0.002). Conclusions: the present results suggest that changes in fetal venous blood flow, mainly DV and LPV are useful in the management of cases with early onset placental insufficiency and that venous Doppler parameters correlate with pH at birth.

Ankle-Brachial Index: A Simple Way to Predict Mortality among Patients on Hemodialysis - A Prospective Study

Background: Ankle-brachial index (ABI) can access peripheral artery disease and predict mortality in prevalent patients on hemodialysis. However, ABI has not yet been tested in incident patients, who present significant mortality. Typically, ABI is measured by Doppler, which is not always available, limiting its use in most patients. We therefore hypothesized that ABI, evaluated by a simplified method, can predict mortality in an incident hemodialysis population. Methodology/Principal Findings: We studied 119 patients with ESRD who had started hemodialysis three times weekly. ABI was calculated by using two oscillometric blood pressure devices simultaneously. Patients were followed until death or the end of the study. ABI was categorized in two groups normal (0.9-1.3) or abnormal (<0.9 and >1.3). There were 33 deaths during a median follow-up of 12 months (from 3 to 24 months). Age (1 year) (hazard of ratio, 1.026; p = 0.014) and ABI abnormal (hazard ratio, 3.664; p = 0.001) were independently related to mortality in a multiple regression analysis. Conclusions: An easy and inexpensive technique to measure ABI was tested and showed to be significant in predicting mortality. Both low and high ABI were associated to mortality in incident patients on hemodialysis. This technique allows nephrologists to identify high-risk patients and gives the opportunity of early intervention that could alter the natural progression of this population.

New structural brain imaging endophenotype in bipolar disorder

Neuroimaging studies suggest anterior-limbic structural brain abnormalities in patients with bipolar disorder (BD), but few studies have shown these abnormalities in unaffected but genetically liable family members. In this study, we report morphometric correlates of genetic risk for BD using voxel-based morphometry. In 35 BD type I (BD-I) patients, 20 unaffected first-degree relatives (UAR) of BD patients and 40 healthy control subjects underwent 3 T magnetic resonance scanner imaging. Preprocessing of images used DARTEL (diffeomorphic anatomical registration through exponentiated lie algebra) for voxel-based morphometry in SPM8 (Wellcome Department of Imaging Neuroscience, London, UK). The whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter (GM) volumes of the left anterior insula and right inferior frontal gyrus showed a significant main effect of diagnosis. Multiple comparison analysis showed that the BD-I patients and the UAR subjects had smaller left anterior insular GM volumes compared with the healthy subjects, the BD-I patients had smaller right inferior frontal gyrus compared with the healthy subjects. For white matter (WM) volumes, there was a significant main effect of diagnosis for medial frontal gyrus. The UAR subjects had smaller right medial frontal WM volumes compared with the healthy subjects. These findings suggest that morphometric brain abnormalities of the anterior-limbic neural substrate are associated with family history of BD, which may give insight into the pathophysiology of BD, and be a potential candidate as a morphological endophenotype of BD. Molecular Psychiatry (2012) 17, 412-420; doi: 10.1038/mp.2011.3; published online 15 February 2011

Sleep disorders in climacteric women

Introduction: This paper examines the various factors that contribute to the occurrence of sleep alterations during peri and post climacteric and thus produce significant imperil to women's quality of life. Among the probable causes of insomnia or sleep disorders associated to climacteric stand out the occurrence of vasomotor symptoms, depressive state and respiratory distress during sleep, such as sleep apnea, along with chronic pain, although psychosocial factors related to the climacteric bear major influence on such clinical status. Method: The bibliographic analysis was carried out using several electronic data base namely: Cochrane, Medline, Embase, Bni Plus, Biological Abstracts, Psycinfo, Web Of Science, Sigle, Dissertation Abstracts and ZETOC published in English, Spanish and Poruguese. The key terms used were: sleep, REM sleep, slow wave sleep polysomnography; electroencephalogram; sleep disturbances; disturbances of sleep onset and maintenance; excessive somnolence disturbances; climacteric; menopause; depression; neurobiology; biologic models; circadian rhythm; mental health and epidemiology. Case studies and letters to the editor were excluded. The summaries of the identified studies found in the data base were analyzed and assessed, and the data analyzed separately according to the subjective or objective criteria for data collection. Results: The climacteric transition constitutes a period of major risk for the development of depressive, vasomotor and insomnia symptoms although not caused solely by hypoestrogenism. The diagnostic methods used in the study of sleep disorders range from subjective assessment by means of response to specific questionnaires to the objective analysis of actigraphic or polissonographic daytime and nocturnal reports. Polissonographic studies of the whole night, performed at the laboratory, are the golden method of choice for diagnostic of sleep disorders. Studies point to the high prevalence of sleep disorders in the climacteric, especially insomnia, apnea and periodic movement of legs and also to the fact that this phase of life presents decrease in the quality of sleep. Women in peri and post climacteric show higher sleep latency and difficulty in its maintenance and refer being less satisfied with its quality even when compared to those who are not climacteric. Exception made to the vasomotor symptomatology, the other climacteric complaints such as mood disturbances, libido alterations, cognitive deficit, articular pain and sleep disorders are markedly associated to psychosocial factors, lifestyle and especially to women's perception of what the climacteric means to their lives. Conclusion: The analysis of the available studies revealed a proneness to deterioration of quality of life of climacteric women markedly in the sleep disturbances, depressed mood and anxiety domains and should not to be basically attributed to the climacteric. It is necessary that the professionals consider the need of assessment of such pathologies as complex phenomena and the literature lacks studies contemplating such dimensions.

The Real Importance of Pre-Existing Comorbidities on Long-Term Mortality after Acute Kidney Injury

Background: The causes of death on long-term mortality after acute kidney injury (AKI) have not been well studied. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role of comorbidities and the causes of death on the long-term mortality after AKI. Methodology/Principal Findings: We retrospectively studied 507 patients who experienced AKI in 2005-2006 and were discharged free from dialysis. In June 2008 (median: 21 months after AKI), we found that 193 (38%) patients had died. This mortality is much higher than the mortality of the population of Sao Paulo City, even after adjustment for age. A multiple survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model and showed that death was associated with Khan's index indicating high risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.54 (1.38-4.66)], chronic liver disease [1.93 (1.15-3.22)], admission to non-surgical ward [1.85 (1.30-2.61)] and a second AKI episode during the same hospitalization [1.74 (1.12-2.71)]. The AKI severity evaluated either by the worst stage reached during AKI (P=0.20) or by the need for dialysis (P=0.12) was not associated with death. The causes of death were identified by a death certificate in 85% of the non-survivors. Among those who died from circulatory system diseases (the main cause of death), 59% had already suffered from hypertension, 34% from diabetes, 47% from heart failure, 38% from coronary disease, and 66% had a glomerular filtration rate <60 previous to the AKI episode. Among those who died from neoplasms, 79% already had the disease previously. Conclusions: Among AKI survivors who were discharged free from dialysis the increased long-term mortality was associated with their pre-existing chronic conditions and not with the severity of the AKI episode. These findings suggest that these survivors should have a medical follow-up after hospital discharge and that all efforts should be made to control their comorbidities.

Mapeamento de solos e da produtividade de plantações de Eucalyptus grandis, com uso de sistema de informação geográfica

Detailed environmental land characterization is essential for technical and financial planning, for both the scientific point of view and technological application. This work aimed at the physiographic and pedological characterization and eucalyptus productivity mapping at Itatinga Forest Sciences Experimental Station (southeastern Brazil), using geographic information systems in order to identify possible cause-effect relationships between forest productivity and soil attributes. The digital cartographic dataset was structured as follows: as primary source of data, aerial photograph and field survey were used and, as a secondary source, topographical, geological and land use occupation maps were used. For mapping wood productivity at age six (MAI6, Mean Annual Increment), inventory data of permanent plots (same species, provenance and age) were used, which were obtained from Eucalyptus grandis plantations. Using simple linear correlation and backward stepwise multiple regression analysis, the dependent variable (MAI) was related with physical and chemical characteristics of the soils. Two standards of contour curves were identified, one with close curves, narrow and surrounding the drainage network, in the steeper and lower altitude areas; the other, with spaced contour lines, in the areas of higher altitude and with plane relief. Six types of soils were characterized as being highly related to the physiographic patterns of the area: loamy sandy to sandy clayey Typic Hapludox (LVAd, 47.5%), clayey Rhodic Hapludox (LVd1, 33.4%), sandy clay Rhodic Hapludox (LVd2, 6%), clayey Rhodic Hapludox (LVdf, 9.1%), Entisols (G, 3.4%) and Fluvents soil (RY, 0.6%). There were large variations in wood productivity in the Eucalyptus grandis plantations, characterized in six classes, ranging from 26 to 52 m(3) ha(-1) yr(-1). These productivity changes were strictly related to soil mapping units. Through multiple regression analysis, we found that clay and organic matter contents were the attributes which most strongly explained the productivity differences.

Secondary succession impairment in restored mangroves

In this work it was hypothesized that secondary succession on sites that have been managed by single planting of mangrove species is compromised by residual stressors, which could reduce the ecosystem's structural development and lower its functions. Forest structure and environmental characteristics of three planted mangrove stands are compared with reference sites. Structural attributes showed significant differences in the comparison of planted and reference stands. Avicennia schaueriana was the dominant species within both natural regeneration and old-growth stands in terms of basal area (99.2 and 99.4 %, 69.6 and 84.5 %, and 59.0 and 87.1 % for Itacorubi, Saco Grande, and Ratones, respectively). Restoration stands were dominated by Laguncularia racemosa (80.6 and 94.2 % for Saco Grande and Ratones, respectively), except at one site (Itacorubi), where A. schaueriana prevailed (99.7 %). Even though restoration and regeneration stands at Itacorubi showed similar species composition and dominance, cohort sorting revealed an inferior regeneration potential in the restoration stand. Multiple correlation analysis indicated that variables related to elevation disruptions (p (w) = 0.521) were the environmental drivers responsible for the differences observed in forest structure. At restoration sites an impaired pattern of secondary succession was observed, indicating that single species plantings may be ineffective if characteristics of the site, as well as of the area surrounding it, are not considered. The inadequate management of restoration sites can therefore have implications for both immediate and long-term large-scale ecosystem services.