BNP and Admission Glucose as In-Hospital Mortality Predictors in Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Objectives. Admission hyperglycemia and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) are associated with mortality in acute coronary syndromes, but no study compares their prediction in-hospital death. Methods. Patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), in-hospital mortality and two-year mortality or readmission were compared for area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy (ACC) of glycemia and BNP. Results. Respectively, AUC, SEN, SPE, PPV, NPV, and ACC for prediction of in-hospital mortality were 0.815, 71.4%, 84.3%, 26.3%, 97.4%, and 83.3% for glycemia = 200 mg/dL and 0.748, 71.4%, 68.5%, 15.2%, 96.8% and 68.7% for BNP = 300 pg/mL. AUC of glycemia was similar to BNP (P = 0.411). In multivariate analysis we found glycemia >= 200mg/dL related to in-hospital death (P = 0.004). No difference was found in two-year mortality or readmission in BNP or hyperglycemic subgroups. Conclusion. Hyperglycemia was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in NSTEMI and had a good ROC curve level. Hyperglycemia and BNP, although poor in-hospital predictors of unfavorable events, were independent risk factors for death or length of stay >10 days. No relation was found between hyperglycemia or BNP and long-term events.

Failure to reduce C-reactive protein levels more than 25% in the last 24 hours before intensive care unit discharge predicts higher in-hospital mortality: A cohort study

Purpose: To discharge a patient from the intensive care unit (ICU) is a complex decision-making process because in-hospital mortality after critical illness may be as high as up to 27%. Static C-reactive protein (CRP) values have been previously evaluated as a predictor of post-ICU mortality with conflicting results. Therefore, we evaluated the CRP ratio in the last 24 hours before ICU discharge as a predictor of in-hospital outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in 409 patients from a 6-bed ICU of a university hospital. Data were prospectively collected during a 4-year period. Only patients discharged alive from the ICU with at least 72 hours of ICU length of stay were evaluated. Results: In-hospital mortality was 18.3% (75/409). Patients with reduction less than 25% in CRP concentrations at 24 hours as compared with 48 hours before ICU discharge had a worse prognosis, with increased mortality (23% vs 11%, P = .002) and post-ICU length of stay (26 [7-43] vs 11 [5-27] days, P = .036). Moreover, among hospital survivors (n = 334), patients with CRP reduction less than 25% were discharged later (hazard ratio, 0.750; 95% confidence interval, 0.602-0.935; P = .011). Conclusions: In this large cohort of critically ill patients, failure to reduce CRP values more than 25% in the last 24 hours of ICU stay is a strong predictor of worse in-hospital outcomes. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do established prognostic factors explain the different mortality rates in ICU septic patients around the world?

Background. The aim of this paper was to clarify if previously established prognostic factors explain the different mortality, rates observed in ICU septic patients around the world. Methods. This is a sub-study from the PROGRESS study, which was an international, prospective, observational registry of ICU patients with severe sepsis. For this study we included 10930 patients from 24 countries that enrolled more than 100 patients in the PROGRESS. The effect of potential prognostic factors on in-hospital mortality was examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The complete set of data was available for 7022 patients, who were considered in the multivariate analysis. Countries were classified according to country, income, development status, and in-hospital mortality terciles. The relationship between countries' characteristics and hospital mortality mortality was evaluated using linear regression. Results. Mean in-hospital mortality was 49.2%. Severe sepsis in-hospital mortality varied widely in different countries, ranging from 30.6% in New Zealand to 80.4% in Algeria. Classification as developed or developing country was not associated with in-hospital mortality (P=0.16), nor were levels of gross national product per capita (P=0.15). Patients in the group of countries with higher in-hospital mortality, had a crude OR for in-hospital death of 2.8 (95% CI 2.5-3.1) in comparison to those in the lower risk group. After adjustments were made for all other independent variables, the OR changed to 2.9 (95% CI 2.5-3.3). Conclusion. Severe sepsis mortality varies widely, in different countries. All known markers of disease severity and prognosis do not fully, explain the international differences in mortality,. Country, income does not explain this disparity, either. Further studies should be developed to verify if other organizational or structural factors account for disparities in patient care and outcomes. (Minerva Anestesiol 2012;78:1215-25)

In Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction, the Impact of Hyperglycemia as a Risk Factor for Mortality Is Not Homogeneous Across Age-Groups

OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of hyperglycemia in different age-groups of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AM I). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 2,027 patients with AMI were categorized into one of five age-groups: <50 years (n = 301), >= 50 and <60 (n = 477),>= 60 and <70 (n = 545), >= 70 and <80 (n = 495), and years (n = 209). Hyperglycemia was defined as initial glucose >= 115 mg/dL. RESULTS The adjusted odds ratios for hyperglycemia predicting hospital mortality in groups 1-5 were, respectively, 7.57 (P = 0.004), 3.21 (P 0.046), 3.50 (P = 0.003), 3.20 (P < 0.001.), and 2.16 (P = 0.021). The adjusted P values for correlation between glucose level (as a continuous variable) and mortality were 0.007, <0.001, 0.043, <0.001, and 0.064. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were 0.785, 0.709, 0.657, 0.648, and 0.613. The AUC in group 1 was significantly higher than those in groups 3-5. CONCLUSIONS The impact of hyperglycemia as a risk factor for hospital mortality in AMI is more pronounced in younger patients.

In-hospital death in acute coronary syndrome was related to admission glucose in men but not in women

Background: Admission hyperglycaemia is associated with mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but controversy exists whether hyperglycaemia uniformly affects both genders. We evaluated coronary risk factors, gender, hyperglycaemia and their effect on hospital mortality. Methods: 959 ACS patients (363 women and 596 men) were grouped based on glycaemia >= or < 200 mg/dL and gender: men with glucose < 200 mg/dL (menG-); women with glucose < 200 mg/dL (womenG-); men with glucose >= 200 mg/dL (menG+); and women with glucose >= 200 mg/dL (womenG+). A logistic regression analysis compared the relation between gender and glycaemia groups and death, adjusted for coronary risk factors and laboratory data. Results group: menG- had lower mortality than menG+ (OR = 0.172, IC95% 0.062-0.478), and womenG+ (OR = 0.275, IC95% 0.090-0.841); womenG- mortality was lower than menG+ (OR = 0.230, IC95% 0.074-0.717). No difference was found between menG+ vs womenG+ (p = 0.461), or womenG- vs womenG+ (p = 0.110). Age (OR = 1.067, IC95% 1.031-1.104), EF (OR = 0.942, IC95% 0.915-0.968), and serum creatinine (OR = 1.329, IC95% 1.128-1.566) were other independent factors related to in-hospital death. Conclusions: Death was greater in hyperglycemic men compared to lower blood glucose men and women groups, but there was no differences between women groups in respect to glycaemia after adjustment for coronary risk factors.

JC virus-associated central nervous system diseases in HIV-infected patients in Brazil: clinical presentations, associated factors with mortality and outcome

Introduction: Several presentations of neurologic complications caused by JC virus (JCV) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients have been described and need to be distinguished from the "classic" form of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). The objectives of this study were: 1) to describe the spectrum and frequency of presentations of JCV-associated central nervous system (CNS) diseases; 2) identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality of patients with JCV-associated CNS disease; and 3) to estimate the overall mortality of this population. Material and methods: This was a retrospective study of HIV-infected patients admitted consecutively for JCV-associated CNS diseases in a referral teaching center in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 2002 to 2007. All patients with laboratory confirmed JCV-associated CNS diseases were included using the following criteria: compatible clinical and radiological features associated with the presence of JCV DNA in the cerebrospinal fluid. JCV-associated CNS diseases were classified as follows: 1) classic PML; 2) inflammatory PML; and 3) JC virus granule cell neuronopathy (GCN). Results: We included 47 cases. JCV-associated CNS diseases were classified as follows: 1) classic PML: 42 (89%); 2) inflammatory PML: three (6%); and 3) JC virus GCN: four (9%). Nosocomial pneumonia (p = 0.003), previous diagnosis of HIV infection (p = 0.03), and imaging showing cerebellar and/or brainstem involvement (p = 0.02) were associated with in-hospital mortality. Overall mortality during hospitalization was 34%. Conclusions: Novel presentations of JCV-associated CNS diseases were observed in our setting; nosocomial pneumonia, previous diagnosis of HIV infection, and cerebellar and/or brainstem involvement were associated with in-hospital mortality; and overall mortality was high. (C) 2012 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Previous Percutaneous Coronary Intervention as Risk Factor for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has increased as the initial revascularization strategy in chronic coronary artery disease. Consequently, more patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have history of coronary stent. Objective: Evaluate the impact of previous PCI on in-hospital mortality after CABG in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease. Methods: Between May/2007 and June/2009, 1099 consecutive patients underwent CABG on cardiopulmonary bypass. Patients with no PCI (n=938, 85.3%) were compared with patients with previous PCI (n=161, 14.6%). Logistic regression models and propensity score matching analysis were used to assess the risk-adjusted impact of previous PCI on in-hospital mortality. Results: Both groups were similar, except for the fact that patients with previous PCI were more likely to have unstable angina (16.1% x 9.9%, p=0.019). In-hospital mortality after CABG was higher in patients with previous PCI (9.3% x 5.1%, p=0.034) and it was comparable with EuroSCORE and 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet risk score. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, previous PCI emerged as an independent predictor of postoperative in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI 1.02-3.68, p=0.044) as strong as diabetes (odds ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.07-3.24, p=0.028). After computed propensity score matching based on preoperative risk factors, in-hospital mortality remained higher among patients with previous PCI (odds ratio 3.46, 95% CI 1.10-10.93, p=0.034). Conclusions: Previous PCI in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality after CABG. This fact must be considered when PCI is indicated as initial alternative in patients with more severe coronary artery disease. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;99(1):586-595)

Evaluation of Surgical Treatment of Congenital Heart Disease in Patients Aged Above 16 Years

Background: The increasing number of children with evolving congenital heart diseases demands greater preparation of professionals and institutions that handle them. Objective: To describe the profile of patients aged over 16 years with congenital heart disease, who have undergone surgery, and analyze the risk factors that predict hospital mortality. Methods: One thousand five hundred twenty patients (mean age 27 +/- 13 years) were operated between January 1986 and December 2010. We performed a descriptive analysis of the epidemiological profile of the study population and analyzed risk factors for hospital mortality, considering the complexity score, the year in which surgery was performed, the procedure performed or not performed by the pediatric surgeon and reoperation. Results: There was a significant increase in the number of cases from the year 2000. The average complexity score was 5.4 and the septal defects represented 45% of cases. Overall mortality was 7.7% and most procedures (973 or 61.9%) with greater complexity were performed by pediatric surgeons. Complexity (OR 1.5), reoperation (OR 2.17) and pediatric surgeon (OR 0.28) were independent risk factors influencing mortality. Multivariate analysis showed that the year in which the surgery was performed (OR 1.03), the complexity (OR 1.44) and the pediatric surgeon (OR 0.28) influenced the result. Conclusion: There is an increasing number of patients aged 16 years which, despite the large number of simple cases, the most complex ones were referred to pediatric surgeons, who had lower mortality, especially in recent years. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;98(5):390-397)

The use of severity indexes to estimate the risk of death in Intensive Care

The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) are instruments used to classify Intensive Care Unit (ICU) inpatients according to the severity of their condition and risk of death, and evaluate the quality of nursing care. The objective of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance of SAPS II and LODS to predict the mortality of patients admitted to the ICU. The participants were 600 patients from four ICUs located in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the performance of the indexes. Results: The areas under the ROC curves of LODS (0.69) and SAPS II (0.71) indicated moderate discriminatory capacity to identify death or survival. No statistically significant differences were found between these areas (p=0.26). In conclusion, there was equivalence between SAPS II and LODS to estimate the risk of death of ICU patients.

Validation of the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet and EuroSCORE at the Heart Institute - USP

Objective: To validate the 2000 Bernstein Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the Heart Institute, University of Sao Paulo (InCor/HC-FMUSP). Methods:A prospective observational design. We analyzed 3000 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery, between May 2007 and July 2009 at the InCor/HC-FMUSP. Mortality was calculated with the 2000BP and ES models. The correlation between estimated mortality and observed mortality was validated by calibration and discrimination tests. Results: There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors between the study population, 2000BP and ES. Patients were stratified into five groups for 2000BP and three for the ES. In the validation of models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0396), however, the 2000BP (P = 0.047) proved inadequate. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve proved to be good for models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80). Conclusion: In the validation, 2000BP proved questionable and ES appropriate to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the InCor/HC-FMUSP.

Fatores de risco pré-operatórios para mediastinite após cirurgia cardíaca: análise de 2768 pacientes

INTRODUÇÃO: A esternotomia mediana longitudinal é a via de acesso mais utilizada no tratamento das doenças cardíacas. As infecções profundas da ferida operatória no pós-operatório das cirurgias cardiovasculares são uma complicação séria, com alto custo durante o tratamento. Diferentes estudos têm encontrado fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de mediastinite e as variáveis pré-operatórias têm tido especial destaque. OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste estudo é identificar fatores de risco pré-operatórios para o desenvolvimento de mediastinite em pacientes submetidos a revascularização do miocárdio e a substituição valvar. MÉTODOS: Este estudo observacional representa uma coorte de 2768 pacientes operados consecutivamente. O período considerado para análise foi de maio de 2007 a maio de 2009 e não houve critérios de exclusão. Foi realizada análise univariada e multivariada pelo modelo de regressão logística das 38 variáveis pré-operatórias eleitas. RESULTADOS: Nesta série, 35 (1,3%) pacientes evoluíram com mediastinite e 19 (0,7%) com osteomielite associada. A idade média dos pacientes foi de 59,9 ± 13,5 anos e o EuroSCORE de 4,5 ± 3,6. A mortalidade hospitalar foi de 42,8%. Na análise multivariada, foram identificadas três variáveis como preditoras independentes de mediastinite: balão intra-aórtico (OR 5,41, 95% IC [1,83 -16,01], P=0,002), hemodiálise (OR 4,87, 95% IC [1,41 - 16,86], P=0,012) e intervenção vascular extracardíaca (OR 4,39, 95% IC [1,64 - 11,76], P=0,003). CONCLUSÃO: O presente estudo demonstrou que necessidade do suporte hemodinâmico pré-operatório com balão intra-aórtico, hemodiálise e intervenção vascular extracardíaca são fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de mediastinite após cirurgia cardíaca.

Risk Factor Analysis of Late Survival After Heart Transplantation According to Donor Profile: A Multi-Institutional Retrospective Study of 512 Transplants

Introduction. Patients with terminal heart failure have increased more than the available organs leading to a high mortality rate on the waiting list. Use of Marginal and expanded criteria donors has increased due to the heart shortage. Objective. We analyzed all heart transplantations (HTx) in Sao Paulo state over 8 years for donor profile and recipient risk factors. Method. This multi-institutional review collected HTx data from all institutions in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. From 2002 to 2008 (6 years), only 512 (28.8%) of 1777 available heart donors were accepted for transplantation. All medical records were analyzed retrospectively; none of the used donors was excluded, even those considered to be nonstandard. Results. The hospital mortality rate was 27.9% (n = 143) and the average follow-up time was 29.4 +/- 28.4 months. The survival rate was 55.5% (n = 285) at 6 years after HTx. Univariate analysis showed the following factors to impact survival: age (P = .0004), arterial hypertension (P = .4620), norepinephrine (P = .0450), cardiac arrest (P = .8500), diabetes mellitus (P = .5120), infection (P = .1470), CKMB (creatine kinase MB) (P = .8694), creatinine (P = .7225), and Na+ (P = .3273). On multivariate analysis, only age showed significance; logistic regression showed a significant cut-off at 40 years: organs from donors older than 40 years showed a lower late survival rates (P = .0032). Conclusions. Donor age older than 40 years represents an important risk factor for survival after HTx. Neither donor gender nor norepinephrine use negatively affected early survival.

Age influences outcomes in 70-year or older patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery

Objective: To analyze the results of isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) in patients >= 70 years old in comparison to patients <70 years old. Methods: Patients undergoing isolated CABG were selected for the study. The patients were assigned into two groups: G1 (age >= 70 years old) and G2 (age <70 years old). The endpoints were in-hospital mortality, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, re-exploration for bleeding, intraaortic balloon pump for circulatory shock, respiratory complications, acute renal failure, mediastinitis, sepsis, atrial fibrillation, and complete atrioventricular block (CAVB). Results: A total of 1,033 were included in the study: G1 comprised 257 (24.8%) patients G2 776 (75.2%). Patients in G1 were more likely to have in-hospital mortality than in G2 (8.9% vs. 3.6%, respectively; P=0.001), while the incidence of AMI was similar (5.8% vs. 5.5%; P=0.87) in G2. More patients in G1 had re-exploration for bleeding (12.1% vs. 6.1%; P=0.003). Compared to G2, G1 had more incidences of respiratory complications (21.4% vs. 9.1%; P<0.001), mediastinitis (5.1% vs. 1.9%; P=0.013), stroke (3.9% vs. 1.3%; P=0.016), acute renal failure (7.8% vs. 1.3%; P<0.001), sepsis (3.9% vs. 1.9%; P=0.003), atrial fibrillation (15.6% vs. 9.8%; P=0.016), and CAVB (3.5% vs. 1.2%; P=0.023). There was no significant difference in the use of the intraaortic balloon pump. In the forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis, age >= 70 years was an independent predictive factor for higher in-hospital mortality (P=0.004), re-exploration for bleeding (P=0.002), sepsis (P=0.002), respiratory complications (P<0.001), mediastinitis (P=0.016), stroke (P=0.029), acute renal failure (P<0.001), atrial fibrillation (P=0.021), and CAVB (P=0.031). Conclusion: This study suggests that patients of age >= 70 years were at increased risk of death and other complications in the CABG's postoperative period in comparison to younger patients.

ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction in the elderly

Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are the leading causes of death in the elderly. The suspicion and diagnosis of ACS in this age group is more difficult, since typical angina is less frequent. The morbidity and mortality is greater in older age patients presenting ACS. Despite the higher prevalence and greater risk, elderly patients are underrepresented in major clinical trials from which evidence based recommendations are formulated. The authors describe, in this article, the challenges in the diagnosis and management of ST elevation myocardial infarction in the elderly, and discuss the available evidence.