Culture stratégique et libéralisation politique au Myanmar

Le Myanmar traverse un processus de libéralisation politique qui a été entamé par le haut. Le régime militaire a tenu des élections générales en 2010, lesquelles ont placé au pouvoir un nouveau gouvernement composé à la fois de civils et de militaires. Depuis, la majorité des sanctions imposées par plusieurs États occidentaux au Myanmar ont été levées, et on observe une diversification des relations internationales du pays. Imbriqué à la sphère d’influence chinoise depuis quelques années, celui-ci rétablit des contacts diplomatiques et économiques avec l’Occident. Peu de chercheurs ont tenté d’expliquer les causes de cette transition politique, et le lien entre libéralisation politique et diversification des relations internationales n’a pas encore été expliqué. Ce mémoire propose de le faire en utilisant un modèle théorique issu de deux types de littérature, celle sur la culture stratégique et celle sur les transitions politiques. Il suggère que la libéralisation politique du Myanmar s’explique par les luttes d’influences au sein du régime entre deux sous-cultures stratégiques, les hardliners et les softliners. L’application des normes favorisées par les hardliners ayant échoué dans l’atteinte des objectifs stratégiques du régime, les softliners ont pu imposer leurs propres préférences normatives. Il propose également que la libéralisation politique était une étape nécessaire pour que le gouvernement birman puisse diversifier ses relations internationales.

Le processus de construction de l'identité collective du mouvement queer montréalais : perspectives militantes francophones

Ce mémoire vise à analyser le processus de construction de l'identité collective du mouvement queer à Montréal dans un contexte francophone. Bien que plusieurs travaux portent en partie sur les groupes militants queers québécois, aucune recherche ne s'est employée à comprendre comment les militant.es queers à Montréal se constituent comme un collectif qui développe une identité. Pour analyser le processus de construction de l'identité collective du mouvement queer montréalais, je m'appuie sur la théorie de Melucci (1985; 1996), qui définit l'identité collective d'un mouvement selon plusieurs axes : les champs d'action, les moyens employés et les fins visées, ainsi que le mode d'organisation. Afin de répondre à cette question de recherche, j'ai effectué une recherche documentaire ainsi que sept entrevues avec des militant.es queers montréalais.es francophones. L'analyse des données a été faite grâce à divers travaux qui portent sur les champs d'action, les valeurs, les fins et moyens, le mode d'organisation de mouvements contemporains anti-autoritaires et anti-oppressifs, ainsi qu'en fonction de trois dimensions élaborées par Melucci (1985) : le conflit, la solidarité et les limites du système. Je conclus que l'identité collective comme processus s'articule autour de plusieurs enjeux : premièrement, la diversité des champs d'action, les valeurs anti-oppressives, les relations d'affinités, le mode de vie alternatif et le mode d'organisation anti-oppressif des militant.es queers permettent au mouvement de créer une solidarité interne, d'affirmer une position anti-autoritaire qui brise les limites du système dominant et de se différencier du mouvement LGBT mainstream. Par ailleurs, les actions militantes concrètes qui réalisent le changement dans l'ici et maintenant participent à créer une solidarité et une reconnaissance entre militant.es, ainsi qu'à mettre en lumière un conflit avec le système dominant oppressif. Enfin, les perspectives francophones sur le mouvement queer ne semblent pas donner au bilinguisme du mouvement un rôle fondamental dans la construction de son identité collective. Cependant, l'intérêt marqué des militant.es francophones comparativement aux militant.es anglophones pour la politique institutionnelle fait émerger de nouvelles interrogations sur l'impact que pourrait avoir le mélange des cultures francophone et anglophone à Montréal sur la culture politique et l'identité du mouvement.

Voters and Candidates of the Future

Within the literature there is a growing concern about lower voter turnout rates among young age cohorts. In this article we investigate the reported willingness to vote among 72,466 14-year old adolescents from 22 European countries, taking part in the International Citizen and Civic Education Survey (ICCS, 2009). Results indicate that the willingness to vote remains quite high among this age group, but with a clear gender division. While girls are more likely to state that they will vote, boys are more likely to see themselves as a future election candidate. An open classroom climate at school contributes to the willingness to vote in future elections. The elements that are known to have an effect on the turnout level of adults, however, do not have a significant impact on the intention to vote among adolescents. This would suggest that the observed low turnout rate among young age groups cannot just be attributed to an alleged lack of political motivation among adolescents.

Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism

While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of their importance for political parties that increasingly rely on professionalized campaign techniques. Other scholars have expressed concern about the decline of party membership. They emphasize the fact that party members continue to function as an important linkage mechanism providing a structural alignment between the party and society (and thus also to potential voters). By means of an election forecasting model for Belgium, we test whether party membership figures still can be related to election results. Results show that party membership has a strong effect on election results, and furthermore, that this relation does not weaken during the period under investigation (1981-2010). The analysis also demonstrates that forecasting models can also be used in a complex multiparty system like Belgium.

La théorie sociale de la connaissance et la gestion du patrimoine documentaire à l’ère numérique

Les institutions de mémoire et de savoir (par exemple, les bibliothèques, les archives, les musées) font face à des défis importants dans leurs responsabilités d’assurer la pérennité du patrimoine documentaire à l’ère numérique. Citons la surabondance de l’information numérique, la possibilité de production, théoriquement illimitée, offerte aux individus comme aux groupes sociaux, les limites dans les capacités de stockage et de diffusion de l’information numérique qui sont à la disposition des institutions mandataires du patrimoine documentaire. De plus, il est apparu que les approches et les méthodes utilisées pour identifier, gérer, préserver et diffuser le patrimoine documentaire de la société canadienne dans un environnement analogique n’étaient transférables à un environnement numérique. Nous suggérons que la théorie sociale de la connaissance peut servir de base à une réflexion portant sur le développement d’une politique publique qui viserait à encadrer l’identification, la sélection, la gestion et la préservation du patrimoine documentaire d’une société à l'ère numérique. Nous définissons la problématique puis proposons des réponses à travers trois articles scientifiques. Les résultats indiquent que les connaissances et les pratiques professionnelles utilisées demeurent persistantes et limitent la formulation et l'application de nouveaux cadres théoriques, de politiques administratives et de techniques associés à l'identification et la sélection du patrimoine documentaire. Cette recherche propose un cadre conceptuel qui permet de développer des politiques publiques sur le patrimoine documentaire du Canada.

The Effects of Civic Education on Political Knowledge

Traditionally political knowledge was regarded as an important potential outcome for civic education efforts. Most of the currently available research, however, tends to focus on non-cognitive goals, despite the fact that studies repeatedly have shown that political knowledge is an important resource for enlightened and engaged citizenship. In this article, we investigate whether civic education contributes to political knowledge levels. The analysis is based on the Belgian Political Panel Survey, a two year panel study among 2,988 Belgian late adolescents. The analysis shows that experiences with group projects at school contribute significantly to political knowledge levels two years later on. Furthermore, we can observe an interaction effect as those who are already most knowledgeable about politics, gain most from these group projects. Classes about politics, on the other hand, did not have an effect on knowledge levels. In the discussion, it is argued that civic education can have strong cognitive effects, but that these effects are not always related to classical civic education efforts.

Political Sophistication and Vote Intention Switching

This article investigates the link between political sophistication and electoral volatility. Showing that there is disagreement in the literature on whether switching party preferences is related to low or high levels of political sophistication, it is then argued that the effect of sophistication on vote switching might differ depending on when switching is measured. The effect of timing on volatility is investigated by means of the Short-term panel of the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study. Results indicate that timing indeed matters, while sophistication increases the probability of switching parties before the campaign, the effect of political sophistication becomes more negative as Election Day draws near.

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).

Partisan Dealignment in Germany: A rejoinder to Russell Dalton

The work of Russell Dalton has undoubtedly played a seminal role in the study of the relation between political sophistication and partisan dealignment. We furthermore acknowledge the presence of a consensus on the occurrence of lower levels of partisanship in Germany. Using panel data as well as pooled cross-sectional observations, however, it is clear that generational replacement is not the sole driving force of partisan dealignment, but that period effects should also be taken into account. While on an aggregate level rising levels of political sophistication have occurred simultaneously with decreasing partisanship, individual level analysis suggests clearly that the least sophisticated are most likely to feel alienated from the party system. We close with some very specific suggestion on how to address the democratic consequences of declining levels of partisanship.

Age, Period and Cohort effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and in this article, we first expand previous observations with more recent data. These suggest that the erosion of party identity continues up to the present time. An age-period-cohort analysis of the panel data of the SOEP panel suggests that period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed that throughout the 1992-2009 observation period, education level and political interest have become more important determinants of party identity. Contrary to some of the literature, therefore, it can be shown that the loss of party identity is concentrated among groups with lower levels of political sophistication, indicating that the socio-economic profile of the group with a sense of party identification has become more distinct compared to the population as a whole. In the discussion, we investigate the theoretical and democratic consequences of this trend.

The Relation Between Civic Education and Political Attitudes and Behavior

It is generally assumed that civic education efforts will have a positive effect on the political attitudes and behaviors of adolescents and young adults. There is less agreement, however, on the most effective forms of civic education. In the present study, we distinguish between formal civic education, an open classroom climate and active learning strategies, and we explore their effect on political interest, efficacy, trust and participation. To analyze these effects, we rely on the results of a two-year panel study among late adolescents in Belgium. The results indicate that formal civic education (classroom instruction) and active learning strategies (school council membership and, to a lesser extent, group projects) are effective in shaping political attitudes and behavior. An open classroom climate, on the other hand, has an effect on political trust. We conclude that there is no reason to privilege specific forms of civic education, as each form contributes to different relevant political attitudes and behaviors.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis, where voters favor parties closest to their issue position, has been neglected in this literature. We explore policy voting with respect to an archetypal economic policy issue – unemployment. Voters who favor lower unemployment should tend to vote for left parties, since they “own” the issue. Examining a large time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) pool of Western European nations, we find some evidence for economic policy voting. However, it exists in a form conditioned by incumbency. According to varied tests, left incumbents actually experience a net electoral cost, if the unemployment rate climbs under their regime. Incumbency, then, serves to break any natural economic policy advantage that might accrue to the left due to the unemployment issue.

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.