Understanding import diversification: an empirical analysis

This paper analyzes import diversification in an aggregated perspective -- Using a dataset for 60 countries covering the period 1995-2010, we study the main determinants of import diversification -- We expect to contribute to the current literature, taking into account that there have been few empirical studies addressing import diversification and more specifically, at the cross-country level -- We take into account variables classified into four categories: Structural factors, macroeconomic factors, international trade factors and political factors -- We find robust evidence that total factor productivity (TFP), capital stock, real Exchange rates and terms of trade are key drivers of import diversification -- On the other hand, domestic consumption and trade openness exert an effect leading to import concentration -- We interpret this finding, taking into account the theoretical framework provided by the international trade and growth theories

Pass-through of International food prices to domestic ination during and after the great recession: evidence from a set of Latin American economies

We examined how international food price shocks have impacted local ination processes in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in the past decade -- Using impulse-response analysis coming from cointegrated VARs, we wind that international food ination shocks take from one to six quarters to pass through to domestic head-line ination, depending on the country -- In addition, by calculating the elasticity of local prices to an international food price shock, we found that this pass-through is not complete -- We also take a closer look at how this type of shock affects local food and core prices separately, and asses the possibility second round effects over core ination stemming from the shock -- We wind that a transmission to headline prices does occur, and that part of the transmission is associated with rising core prices both directly and through possible second round effects, which implies a role for monetary policy when such a shock takes place -- This is especially relevant given that international food prices have recently been on an upward trend after falling considerably during the Great Recession

Devaluation, competitiveness and new business formation in emerging countries

In September 2010, Brazil’s Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, used the term “currency war” with reference to monetary policies implemented by different countries to generate an artificial devaluation of their currency and achieve a cheaper, more competitive domestic economy that may be attractive to foreign investors. Similar cases have been documented since the 1930s Great Depression, when several countries abandoned the gold standard as backing for their currencies. More recently, a large-scale asset purchase by Japan’s Central Bank in 2013 was singled out as a strategy aimed at generating devaluation of the yen. This research uses statistics of new business formation density reported by Doing Business for 30 emerging countries in the period 2004-2011 to evaluate the impact of devaluation measured by the behavior of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on the rate of new business formation (NBF). It is determined how variables associated with competitiveness affect the relationship between devaluation and business formation. Results show that devaluation has a positive effect on NBF in the short term, which gets diluted in the long term. Countries with greater competitiveness have less dependence on devaluation to increase the number of businesses.