Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Estudo da utilização de ferramentas a base de nitreto de silício (Si3N4) e alumina (Al2O3) na usinagem do ferro fundido vermicular

Machining is one of the most commonly manufacturing processes used in the modern world, consuming millions of dollars annually. Because of this, it is crucial for the automotive industry to reduce costs on their heat-resistant alloy machining processes, such as compacted graphite iron (CGI), which has shown an increasing trend of its application in diesel engine blocks, brakes disks, among other applications, due to its superior mechanical properties to gray cast iron. Despite this advantage, its use is still limited due to its difficulty of machining, moreover, cutting tools are displayed as the main factor in increasing the machining cost. Seeking an alternative to a better machinability of CGI, this paper aims to study two types of ceramic tools developed in Brazil, and benchmark their performance by dry turning. For this, were used CGI class 450 and two tools: ceramic of silicon nitride (Si3N4) and alumina-based (Al2O3), with a cutting speed (Vc) of 300, 400 and 500 m / min; feed (f) of 0.2 mm / rev and depth of cut (ap) of 0.5 mm, using three replicates and starting with new cutting edges. The results showed that the Al2O3 tool had the best performance in Vc of 500 m / min, while the Si3N4 tool had the best results in Vc of 300 m / min. This can be explained by the tool of Si3N4 based include soft intergranular phase, called amorphous, while alumina has higher abrasion resistance due to its high refractoriness. The results make it clear that the tools have significant potential for machining of compacted graphite iron, being necessary a strict control of the cutting parameters used