Fatores que Influenciam a flexibilidade da produção de veículos comerciais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEG

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Estudo da viabilidade da implantação de frotas de veículos elétricos e híbridos elétricos no atual cenário econômico, político, energético e ambiental brasileiro

Currently there are two car models that use electricity in their propulsion systems, the electric vehicle and the hybrid electric vehicle. The electric vehicles are classified as vehicles that use electric motors in their propulsion system and batteries as a power source, on the other hand, the hybrid vehicles are classified as vehicles that use both electric motors and internal combustion engines in their propulsion system, using both batteries and líquid fuels as a power source. The main goal of this work is to analyze the characteristics of electric and hybrid electric vehicles and demonstrate the unfeasibility of the electric vehicle in the current economic, political, energetic and environmental brazilian scenario, for this purpose it was realized a study about the current brazilian situation regarding to electricity generation, current conservation status of road network, lack of electrical infrastructure for charging batteries, national lithium reserves, environmental characteristics, tax incentives, economic scenario, oil market and political positioning related to the implantation of electric or hybrid electric fleets in nacional territory. The operational characteristics analysis of electric and hybrid electric vehicles in this current scenario leads to the conclusion that currently a growth of electric vehicles fleets on a national scale is totally impractical in the Brazil, Thus, the introduction of green vehicles probably will occur primarily with hybrid electric models, motivated mainly due the bigger autonomy of this models compared to electric models, lower cost of hybrid electric models compared to electric models, factors related to the lack of recharging infrastructure and also factors related to political positioning

Análise e aplicação de métodos de modularização no desenvolvimento do produto

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEG

Avaliação da infecção de megacariócitos e plaquetas pelo VHC e sua influência na fisiopatologia da hepatite C

Pós-graduação em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (Biotecnologia Médica) - FMB

A influência da complexidade na eficiência operacional do consórcio modular

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEG

Montagem e avaliação de um sistema de varredura a LASER embarcado em VANT

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desenvolvimento de uma caixa de redução para veículo Baja SAE

A gear Box in a Baja SAE vehicle is required due to the objectives of the SAE competitions, which the vehicles are challenged to pass through different obstacles. A powertrain system has as the main objective the extension of the torque for the traction shaft of the vehicle, when compared to that one available in the engine. The Objective of this thesis is the description of a gear box project for a Baja SAE vehicle of the Piratas do Vale Team of Unesp Guaratinguetá. In the development of the thesis, a flowchart, developed by the team, was used, which includes a theory part and also the choice of shelf components. In this Project, the type of gearbox was chosen, besides the calculation of axles, gears, bearings and sealers, and software simulations were done for the critical parts. The transmission, developed in this thesis, is more complex than the current one used by the team, but the new one shows improvements, as a new reverse gear with high torque

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Aplicação da Simulação de Monte Carlo no estudo de testes de fadiga em rodas agrícolas

Due to the increasing demand from clients and the search for better performances in the heavy vehicles industry, a progressive evolution in technology in a general way was needed. This paper uses a scientific method to validate, prior to its manufacture, the project of an agricultural wheel for sugar cane harvesters. Monte Carlo Simulation is used in conjunction with Finite Elements Method, in order to simulate the wheel's behavior in a cornering test, identify possible failure regions and get an estimate for its life under fatigue. To this end, test conditions according to EUWA Standards were simulated and obeyed, relevant to fatigue. Simulation results were interesting, according to industry experts involved in the project and manufacture of the product in question, and have provided important elements for the decision making regarding improvements that could be made on the product project before its execution

Gás natural no panorama brasileiro e um estudo de caso no setor automotivo

The intended purpose of this paper is to present the main aspects of natural gas applied to the public transportation as well as the environmental, economical and technical impacts in this sector. Also it is given specific information to be considered when comparing natural gas to other fuels, specially the diesel. At this point is presented the types of internal combustion engines (Otto and Diesel cycle) and which type is used in each vehicle. Moreover, it is presented the main standards pollutant emission (Euro, US and Proconve) with a brief explanation of the tests made in order to approve the engines. This paper is focused on heavy duty vehicles. Also in this paper is exposed the economic impact due to the natural gas use in the public transportation fleet. In addition is presented a real case (of Berlin) and an estimative to a Brazilian city, presenting the potential of natural gas as vehicular fuel in Brazil, as well as financial and environmental aspects of the substitution

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Pesquisa, projeto e construção de um sistema de ignição sem distribuidor

This work intends to know the most types of ignition systems, studying its history, the way it works, applications and some examples. The assembly of a distributor less ignition system is also required. All vehicles powered by internal combustion engines need an ignition system that allows this engine to ignite the air-fuel mixture using its ignition system in the best possible manner. The main goal of an ignition system is to obtain a spark having enough energy to start the chemical reaction of the oxygen and the fuel. It took a study dealing with the various types of ignition systems since their creation at the beginning of the last century until 2015. The work starts studying the high tension magneto ignition system and later together with the low tension ignition system, going on with the conventional ignition system and finally accomplishing with the various types of electronic ignition systems. It was studied and implemented an electronic circuit to power a double spark ignition system also known as wasted spark ignition system. This circuit was assembled with an electric pulse generator and powered mechanically by a dc electric motor of the variable rpm type

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

Avaliação dos níveis de vibração no operador de um trator agrícola ensaiado em pista normatizada em diferentes velocidades de deslocamento

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA