Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Influência da temperatura e do termoperíodo sobre a taxa metabólica de repouso em cascavéis, Crotalus durissus (Serpentes: Viperidae)

Snakes are ectothermic animals and, therefore, their physiological functions are strongly affected by temperature. For instance, the resting metabolic rate (RMR) of this animals increase with the rise in body temperature. However, metabolic determinations in ectothermic organisms, including snakes, are generally made by submitting the animals to constant temperature regimes. This experimental procedure, although widely used, accepted and certainly suitable in several cases, submit the animals to a very different situation from that experienced by them in nature. In fact, ectothermics are known by presenting extensive variations in their body temperatures trough the day and/or seasons. If this disagreement between the thermal biology of the animals and the experimental conditions, for instance over the circadian cycle, affects the determinations of metabolic rates of ectotherm animals, remains quite uncertain. Thus, this study aimed to test the effects of different thermal regimes (fluctuating vs constant) in different temperature ranges over the TMR of rattlesnakes (Crotalus durissus). Therefore, the TMR of rattlesnakes was measured by the oxygen consumption rates ( V O2) in the constant temperatures of 15°C, 20°C, 25°C, 30°C and 35°C. For fluctuating regimes, snakes were measured in thermoperiods of 12/12 hours, as follows: 15°C and 25°C; 20°C and 30°C; 25°C and 35°C. Our results show that the RMR of C. durissus rises as the temperature increases, regardless of the thermal regime. The obtained RMR in the constant regimes of 20°C and 25°C was not different from that measured in the correspondent fluctuating regimes (i.e., 15 - 25°C e 20 - 30°C). However, at constant 30°C, the RMR was significantly higher than that obtained in the 30°C fluctuating regime (25 - 35ºC). This indicates that the potential effects in submitting of snakes to different thermal regimes of its thermal biology become more important with...