Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Avaliação da rigidez torcional do chassi de um protótipo Baja SAE através do método de elementos finitos e de ensaio experimental

The torsional stiffness of chassis is one of the most important properties of a vehicle's structure and therefore its measurement is important. For the first time, the torsional stiffness was considered on the design of a prototype Baja SAE of the team from UNESP - FEG, Equipe Piratas do Vale Bardahl. According to the team's opinion, the increase of stiffness on this prototype, called MB1114, made possible a great improvement in its performance during competitions. In this work, the experimental evaluation of the torsional stiffness from this prototype is performed, detailing the analysis of results, as well as, the hysteresis' effect, least-squares regression and uncertainty analysis. It also shows that it is possible to measure the torsional stiffness of chassis with a low experimental uncertainty without expending many resources. The test rig costed R$ 32,50 due the reuse of materials and the use of instrumentation already available on campus. Furthermore, it is simple to produce and can be easily stocked. Those features are important for Baja and Formula SAE teams. Lastly, the measured value is used to validate the finite element analysis performed by the team during this prototype's design, because similar studies will be performed for the new cars. After investigating the finite element analysis, one result 13,5% higher than the measured value was reached. This difference is believed to be occurred due the imperfections of the finite element model, in other words, for not been possible to simulate every phenomena present on the real model