Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Estimativa do potencial de acréscimo da oferta de energia no setor sucroalcooleiro paulista a partir de cogeração e gaseificação do bagaço de cana-de-açúcar com utilização de ciclo combinado

This work evaluates the existing potential in the state of Sao Paulo for the generation of electrical energy using the sugar cane bagasse as fuel. As the bagasse is a by-product of the sugarcane and alcohol industry and it is produced in large scale in the country, mainly in the state of Sao Paulo, it is important to develop researches that aim the best utilization of this input. In order to determine its potential, at first, a study was conducted considering the utilization of the cogeneration, which is a common practice in the plants of the sector. However, it was concluded that the cogeneration could provide a higher quantity of energy if more modern technologies and more efficient processes were used. Another study to estimate the potential considered a system of gasification of the sugar cane bagasse integrated with the combined cycle (BIG/GTCC). It was concluded that this technology can provide a considerable increase in the electrical supply. In this work it was also developed an energetic study based on real data from a plant located in the state of Sao Paulo. A thermodynamic analysis was done in the existing equipment of the cogeneration section of the plant. And another analysis was done considering the implementation of the BIG/GTCC technology to the cogeneration system. Comparing the results of both settings, it was concluded that the utilization of the sugar cane bagasse integrated to a combined cycle increased considerably the efficiency in the generation of electricity of the plant, increasing more than six times its production capacity of electrical energy