Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

Análise e comparação de orelhamento na liga AA3104 após laminação a quente

Aluminum has been widely used in the forming and manufacture of beverage cans, specific aluminum alloy AA3104, which manufacturers are increasingly demanding as to mechanical properties, quality and reducing waste. This work describes the analysis and comparison of the behavior of earing AA3104 aluminum alloy samples of final thicknesses of 1.80 and 2.10 mm. Were obtained after a hot rolling process, a total population of 86 samples for the two different thicknesses, of which 23 samples of 1.80 mm and 2.10 mm 63 samples. After removal of samples, there was a mechanical test inlay, then characterizing the earing in them. The results earing to the thicknesses of 1.80 and 2.10 mm were analyzed and compared statistically to give 7.1% and 7.4% on average, respectively, correlated with the hot rolling process variables, showing that they are statistically equal and that the process variables do not affect the end result desired, ranging from 7.0 to 7,5%

Avaliação imediata e após 6 meses da resistência de união a dentina de restaurações de resina composta classe I in vivo e in vitro

Pós-graduação em Odontologia Restauradora - ICT