4 resultados para Demanda de reservas bancárias

em Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de São Paulo - UNESP


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Having in mind that petroleum's history presents a huge growth, the exploration and production areas have been receiving lots of investments, in order to attend the increasing demand for gas and petroleum. Looking through that scenario, new technologies have been evolving in favor of discovering new natural petroleum deposits and act with effectiveness in truly deep waters without giving up the worldwide best operational security practices. The use of rigid pipes in marine installations have been rising quickly and, thanks to this reality, the many storage and pipe launching forms became study objects and are getting improved. The analysis of steel API X70 characteristics, proving that they are suitable for use in pipes developed to transport gas and petroleum is the theme of this presentation. A tensile test was conducted to determine the base metal's mechanical properties, draining's tension, traction's resistance, elasticity's modulus and maximum tension. An aspect that is concerning too is the metallographic analysis, in order to determine the studied iron's microstructure. Results of analyzes showed that the steel has high resistance, with good capacity for deformation and well defined yield point, concluding suitable for the application in question

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This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

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Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain