Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Impacto da redução do nível de tensão na iluminação residencial em uma rede inteligente

In this paper, we will present an overview of the smart grid defining the three main systems that compose it: smart infrastructure system, smart management system and smart protection system. We will conceptualize a functionality of smart management system, the conservative voltage reduction, citing its benefits and its history of application. And, finally, we'll cover a test in which we reduce the nominal voltages on incandescent bulbs, CFL and LED, in the context of residential lighting, and on LED and HPS, in the context of public lighting. The test aims to check whether the voltage reduction adversely affects sources of lighting by measuring the temperature manually with a thermal imaging camera FLIR and illuminance with a LUX meter. The set of power factor, total harmonic distortion, and input power values will be collected automatically through the power quality Analyzer Fluke 345 with a probe Fluke Hall Effect Current. For residential lighting, it was found that both CFL and LED had good performance with the smallest variations in illuminance. Between both, the LED source had the lowest harmonics and the lowest power consumption, on the other hand incandescent bulbs had a bad performance as expected. Public light sources also had a good performance and obtained power factors within the standards, as opposed to the CFL and LED residential sources. The data collected clearly shows the feasibility for nominal voltage reductions. Even with small reductions, there are possibilities of savings which can be passed on to the utilities and consumers

Produção do Espaço Urbano e Dinâmica Imobiliária em Cidades Médias: os casos de Presidente Prudente (SP), São José do Rio Preto (SP) e Lleida (ESP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)