Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Estudo para determinação de uma metodologia para o ensaio de arrancamento que avalia aderência aço/concreto

This work talks about the importance of the steel adhesion to concrete, reinforced concrete structures, their testing and forms of measurement used and how the results are used in the structural design, which uses as a reference the NBR 6118 and NBR 7480. It also deals with the importance of a reliable assessment, discussing failures that the test used, NBR 7477, features in specific circumstances, as discussed under the EC-094. It also presents an initial proposal for simplified pullout test, which aims to analyze the grip on steel bars with diameter less than 10 mm, which results when used standardized testing by ABNT NBT 7477, has shown excessive variability, the main criticism of the trial today used without distinction to be established thick or thin bars. The proposal also presented methodology is in the consolidation phase, given the time and the volume of necessary tests. For this reason it is not possible to make a comparison between the values obtained and the results of the test used on the basis of the standard in force, this can only be done once the front with a continuation of this work

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

Considerações sobre a armadura transversal de pilares de concreto armado

There are regulations that establish conditions and enable the design of armor columns. The NBR 6118 features statements relating to the transverse reinforcement as spacing, reinforcement diameters provision in structural elements and others. However, the norm in force does not provide an explicit methodology for the design of stirrups in different situations. We do not propose even a calculation model for this equipment and provides normative considerations for maximum or minimum values of spacings and armor in diameter. It is noteworthy that the classical references also do not provide a calculation routine sizing of transverse reinforcement and only makes the checks as the normative conditions for the given data. Based on this assumption and the problems that may occur in sizing error, both for spacing and for the proposal of the stirrup diameter, this study demonstrates that armor calculation method already established in the literature and then through an intuitive tool and available develops a spreadsheet based on this calculation routine. It takes as reference the one developed by Emil Moersch (1902) and the calculation model proposed by BUFFONI E SILVA (2006). Finally the paper presents a rational design of shear reinforcement and confronts these values with some numerical examples to show its truth