Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Desenvolvimento de uma caixa de redução para veículo Baja SAE

A gear Box in a Baja SAE vehicle is required due to the objectives of the SAE competitions, which the vehicles are challenged to pass through different obstacles. A powertrain system has as the main objective the extension of the torque for the traction shaft of the vehicle, when compared to that one available in the engine. The Objective of this thesis is the description of a gear box project for a Baja SAE vehicle of the Piratas do Vale Team of Unesp Guaratinguetá. In the development of the thesis, a flowchart, developed by the team, was used, which includes a theory part and also the choice of shelf components. In this Project, the type of gearbox was chosen, besides the calculation of axles, gears, bearings and sealers, and software simulations were done for the critical parts. The transmission, developed in this thesis, is more complex than the current one used by the team, but the new one shows improvements, as a new reverse gear with high torque

Estudo da viabilidade da implantação de frotas de veículos elétricos e híbridos elétricos no atual cenário econômico, político, energético e ambiental brasileiro

Currently there are two car models that use electricity in their propulsion systems, the electric vehicle and the hybrid electric vehicle. The electric vehicles are classified as vehicles that use electric motors in their propulsion system and batteries as a power source, on the other hand, the hybrid vehicles are classified as vehicles that use both electric motors and internal combustion engines in their propulsion system, using both batteries and líquid fuels as a power source. The main goal of this work is to analyze the characteristics of electric and hybrid electric vehicles and demonstrate the unfeasibility of the electric vehicle in the current economic, political, energetic and environmental brazilian scenario, for this purpose it was realized a study about the current brazilian situation regarding to electricity generation, current conservation status of road network, lack of electrical infrastructure for charging batteries, national lithium reserves, environmental characteristics, tax incentives, economic scenario, oil market and political positioning related to the implantation of electric or hybrid electric fleets in nacional territory. The operational characteristics analysis of electric and hybrid electric vehicles in this current scenario leads to the conclusion that currently a growth of electric vehicles fleets on a national scale is totally impractical in the Brazil, Thus, the introduction of green vehicles probably will occur primarily with hybrid electric models, motivated mainly due the bigger autonomy of this models compared to electric models, lower cost of hybrid electric models compared to electric models, factors related to the lack of recharging infrastructure and also factors related to political positioning

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Pesquisa, projeto e construção de um sistema de ignição sem distribuidor

This work intends to know the most types of ignition systems, studying its history, the way it works, applications and some examples. The assembly of a distributor less ignition system is also required. All vehicles powered by internal combustion engines need an ignition system that allows this engine to ignite the air-fuel mixture using its ignition system in the best possible manner. The main goal of an ignition system is to obtain a spark having enough energy to start the chemical reaction of the oxygen and the fuel. It took a study dealing with the various types of ignition systems since their creation at the beginning of the last century until 2015. The work starts studying the high tension magneto ignition system and later together with the low tension ignition system, going on with the conventional ignition system and finally accomplishing with the various types of electronic ignition systems. It was studied and implemented an electronic circuit to power a double spark ignition system also known as wasted spark ignition system. This circuit was assembled with an electric pulse generator and powered mechanically by a dc electric motor of the variable rpm type

Avaliação da rigidez torcional do chassi de um protótipo Baja SAE através do método de elementos finitos e de ensaio experimental

The torsional stiffness of chassis is one of the most important properties of a vehicle's structure and therefore its measurement is important. For the first time, the torsional stiffness was considered on the design of a prototype Baja SAE of the team from UNESP - FEG, Equipe Piratas do Vale Bardahl. According to the team's opinion, the increase of stiffness on this prototype, called MB1114, made possible a great improvement in its performance during competitions. In this work, the experimental evaluation of the torsional stiffness from this prototype is performed, detailing the analysis of results, as well as, the hysteresis' effect, least-squares regression and uncertainty analysis. It also shows that it is possible to measure the torsional stiffness of chassis with a low experimental uncertainty without expending many resources. The test rig costed R$ 32,50 due the reuse of materials and the use of instrumentation already available on campus. Furthermore, it is simple to produce and can be easily stocked. Those features are important for Baja and Formula SAE teams. Lastly, the measured value is used to validate the finite element analysis performed by the team during this prototype's design, because similar studies will be performed for the new cars. After investigating the finite element analysis, one result 13,5% higher than the measured value was reached. This difference is believed to be occurred due the imperfections of the finite element model, in other words, for not been possible to simulate every phenomena present on the real model

Simulação da suspensão tipo duplo A de um veículo off-road através do histórico de excitação do solo

The search for mechanical components validation methods, employed in product development sector, becomes more avid for less expensive solutions. As a result, programs that can simulate forces acting on a given part through finite element method are gaining more space in the market, once this process consumes less capital when compared to currently-employed empirical validation. This article shows the simulation of an off-road prototype suspension through such technique, using ground excitation history coming from field measurements and also by making use of a specific tool for obtaining dynamic loads from the model in question. The results shown at the end is key for future enhancements aiming mass reduction, for example, that may be executed on the prototype suspension system discussed here