Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Ecologia alimentar de Tatu-Peba, Euphractus sexcinctus (Linnaeus, 1758), na Fazenda Nhumirim, Pantanal da Nhecolância, MS

Studies on feeding ecology are important tools for the understanding of feeding strategies and niche dynamics. Information on the type of food consumed, how, and where it is acquired, enable the elucidation of species behavioral, evolutionary and ecological aspects. The diet study based on fecal material enables a low-cost, informative research and avoids the sacrifice of animals. The general aim of this study is to characterize the diet of Euphractus sexcinctus, the yellow-armadillo, based on fecal samples, to contribute with additional information on their feeding habits. The study was undertaken at the Nhumirim ranch, Pantanal da Nhecolândia, MS, during the months of February and March, 2014. The fecal material was collected during the manual capture of the animals and oven dried at 60°C. The food items found in the feces were sorted using a magnifying glass and separated in the following categories: plant matter, invertebrates and soil. Invertebrates were identified to the order level and the plant matter to the lowest taxonomic level possible. Aiming to evaluate the invertebrate availability in the soil, pitfall traps were installed next to the location where individuals were captured, during the months of April and May. We were able to estimate the frequency with which item was consumed during the studied period, and if there is a relationship between the frequency of consumed invertebrates and their availability environment. Among the analyzed samples, we could observe the frequency of occurrence (FO) of plant matter, invertebrates and soil in all the samples. The main invertebrate orders found in the samples were: Coleoptera, Orthoptera and Hymenoptera, with FO of 100%, 100% and 87,5%, respectively. Seeds were found in 100% of the samples. The FO of the Byrsonima orbignyana was high (62,5%), and evidences the potential of the yellow-armadillos as seed dispersers. The use of other techniques, such as the micro-histological...

Ecologia, consumo e sustentabilidade

O Desenvolvimento Sustentável tem sido pauta de diversos encontros globais que tentam solucionar as crises ambientais que vêm ocorrendo nas últimas décadas. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as relações entre os impasses identificados na concepção de Desenvolvimento Sustentável e o modelo de desenvolvimento econômico capitalista tal como está configurado pelos princípios do neoliberalismo. Partimos da hipótese da inviabilidade do Desenvolvimento Sustentável em um sistema capitalista neoliberal. Utilizamos como metodologia de análise a cartografia, por meio da qual desenhamos as paisagens emergentes na dinâmica do poder ao indicar os limites do modelo de desenvolvimento econômico. Contrapomos as deficiências do modelo de desenvolvimento econômico com as premissas do que poderiam caracterizar o Desenvolvimento Sustentável. Desenvolvemos algumas reflexões acerca da sociedade de consumo e seus impactos na natureza. Apresenta-se as linhas de pensamento ecológico que discutem as maneiras de solucionar os problemas ambientais. Exercícios educacionais podem ser usados para a formação do compromisso de cada sujeito com a construção da comunidade. Refletir apenas nas contradições sociais não resolverá completamente a pressão exercida sobre os recursos naturais. A natureza não pode ser vista como um simples objeto estático que só se realiza a partir do trabalho humano, sua dinâmica deve ser considerada em sua totalidade. A sociedade não pode continuar a desenvolver meios de produção que aumentam a exploração da natureza. Uma nova estrutura social deve ser pensada, indo além das concepções marxistas e naturalistas, que promova justiça social e ambiental

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin